2012 NFL Free Agents: Predicting the Worst Contract at Every Position

We know it's going to happen because it does nearly every year during free agency—some team will go a bit nuts and play fantasy football with the wrong player. They'll pay them scads of cashola and sit back to watch the Super Bowl rings roll in.

Instead, at best they'll get decent play, or at worst they'll get a huge bust who soaks up money while ending up a complete disaster on the field, when he gets on it.

Either way, their coup of a signing and big contract will look like a very foolish choice at the end of the season.

For examples, please see the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles or the Washington Redskins circa almost any year since Dan Snyder took over.

Teams can't be afraid to spend money—as the saying goes, "Scared money don't make none." However, spending money and spending money wisely are two different things. Again, for examples see the above teams.

With that in mind, here are my thoughts on what could be the worst contracts at every position in free agency this year.

QB: Matt Flynn—5 year, $56 million contract, $10 million guaranteed

Sure, Flynn looks good in limited action, and one could argue he's better than the guy his agent will likely refer to in negotiations—Arizona's Kevin Kolb.

Flynn's numbers— 82-of-132, 1,015 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions—were compiled over a shorter time and with, in my opinion, a much better team than Kolb had for most of his time with the Eagles.

That said, they had around the same completion percentage (62.12 percent for Flynn, 60.8 for Kolb) and both are similar in that they are both primarily career backups (though Kolb got a starting gig briefly) with strong arms and upside.

Kolb was traded and awarded a six-year, $65 million contract, $12 million guaranteed, $10 of which is a signing bonus.

Flynn is unproven with upside, just like Kolb, and you would think that a team would avoid dropping a lot of cash on a guy who might play at a high level, but as Kolb's contract shows, they absolutely will.

Someone will pay Flynn big money, because if they don't, someone else will. You can't offer Flynn a short, safe contract because in a quarterback-hungry league, people will overpay for upside.

Why do I think it's a mistake to pay Flynn this money? Why will it not work?

After all, I did mention his potential upside.

Fact is, he will not be going to the Packers. He will not be going to a team with an All-Star lineup of wide receivers. He will not have access to a top-flight tight end.

He'll be looking at teams like Miami, Washington, Seattle or maybe Cleveland. None of these teams have the quality of offense Green Bay has. They have some pieces, but not he package.

In fact, several of those teams have real issues at offensive line. Three of them were ranked in the bottom half of Pro Football Focus' Offensive Line Rankings for 2011 (Cleveland is in the top half, we'll see where when it gets posted) and none of them better than 22nd overall.

Now, this isn't a black-and-white issue—PFF has the Giants at 31st, and they won the Super Bowl. Still, putting Flynn, an unproven quarterback, behind a shaky offensive line, throwing to wide receiver groups who, at best, have one very good to great wideout and a bunch of role players doesn't sound like a successful formula to me.

Unless Flynn goes to a much better team than expected, he's going to struggle, and that inevitable big contract is going to look really ugly by midseason.

RB: Marshawn Lynch—5 year, $35 million, $12 million guaranteed

The best-case scenario, in my mind, is for the Seahawks to franchise Lynch, because I believe that once he has a fat contract, his production will suffer.

If you look at Lynch's production, it's been up and down his whole career. He plays when he wants to play. Maybe he's really got a whole new attitude under Pete Carroll, but I'd be leery handing him a boatload of cash.

I'd imagine he'd be asking for a contract similar to the one Maurice Jones-Drew signed two years ago (five years, $30.95 million, $17.5 guaranteed) and less than what DeAngelo Williams received (five years, $43 million, $21 million guaranteed) last summer.

The problem would come in when he cashed that first check. Lynch needs motivation, and the type of money the Seahawks would likely give him is just the sort of thing to derail him.

There are two solutions. One, the team could offer an incentive laden contract, though to be honest there's no way I think he signs without a large pile of guaranteed cash.

The other option is the franchise tag. The one-year tag is estimated to be at approximately at $7.7 million, down from $9.6 last year. When you factor in what Lynch would likely get for a longer contract, at least up front, that $7 million doesn't seem too high.

Plus, it keeps him on his toes and hungry, where he performs best.

You give him that big contract he wants, and I can imagine he'd have a down year, not unlike DeAngelo Williams did after his.

WR: DeSean Jackson—5 year, $40 million, $10 million guaranteed

Jackson is a tough one to figure out, but whoever signs him to a contract knows they have to show him the money.

Let's back up for a second. Some of you will say the Eagles are definitely going to apply the franchise tag, and they might. I think it would be a horrific choice.

You think Jackson threw a tantrum in 2011? Tag him and see what happens. Especially if they struggle.

Back to the main topic, though. If you sign Jackson to a long contract, you might get a honeymoon period where he behaves. In my opinion, though, the lousy teammate will emerge again.

The moment the going gets tough and he's not seeing the ball "enough," he'll pull a Santonio Holmes, and suddenly it will all go south.

Ultimately, Jackson is a guy who will get the big money if the Eagles let him go or even if they sign him. In the end, though, the money will only buy so much happiness, and he'll become a thorn in his team's side again.

TE: Joel Dreessen—3 years, $12 million

Dreessen has played some very good football the last few years, and even though he's a bit old at 30, he doesn't have the wear and tear on him that most 30-year-old players have.

Dreessen has had several big touchdowns, and teams might look at him as a guy who, if not for the presence of Owen Daniels, could have had a very productive time in Houston.

While he's not as athletic as some of the other free agent tight ends, he might be looked at as a poor man's version of a vertical tight end.

The problem will be that he's really just an average tight end. He blocks well, and yes, he put up the odd long touchdown, but really he's a player who is much better as a backup than a starter.

A team who brings Dreessen in may feel they are getting a bargain, but even at the reasonable price I have him marked at, his limitations will make it feel like money you just set on fire for kicks.

OL: Demetrius Bell—4 years, $30 Million, $8 million guaranteed

Bell took a long time to get to be the viable replacement for Jason Peters that the Bills hoped he would be. Really, it's just been the last year when he was under the franchise tag, and now the Bills—or another team—have to decide what the chances are he continues to improve and by how much.

While I believe Bell to be a competent tackle, the money he is likely to command in a weak tackle free-agent class is too rich for my blood. I believe he'll net starter money, but long-term, I don't think he's worth it.

He's improved, yes, but in my opinion he's hit his ceiling. Unless he joins an offensive line in good shape already, he's going to underplay the contract he could get.

DL: John Abraham—3 years, $15 million, $5 guaranteed

Abraham was very good the last two years on a steady snap count, though toward the end of 2011, the Falcons eased him off it. Atlanta might franchise him but at an assumed rate of $10.6 million, it's cheaper to either let him go or sign him to a longer contract.

In my opinion, they'll let him walk and some other team will see him as a veteran presence who could contribute leadership and production over the next few years.

The problem is that I also believe they will try to push him harder, forgetting the snap count and using him more than the Falcons have. That will reveal that he just doesn't have what it takes to play a lot of snaps across a whole season anymore.

Abraham is good in small doses, but a team will overpay him and try to wring every last bit of remaining talent out of him, instead getting nowhere near as much as they hoped.

LB: Anthony Spencer—4 years, $35 million, $10 million guaranteed

I'll assume that whoever pays Spencer knows they aren't getting a pass-rushing sack beast. Also, we do know that the Cowboys have flip-flopped from letting Spencer walk to maybe, possibly hitting him with a franchise tag.

If that doesn't work, Spencer will hit the market and do quite well for himself.

Unfortunately for the team who signs him, DeMarcus Ware isn't coming in the bargain.

While I don't think anyone is going to make Spencer the lynchpin of their defense, unless they have a player of Ware's caliber to play across from him, I expect his numbers to go down.

Spencer was never able to take that last step to become what the Cowboys envisioned him being. What he was able to accomplish though, has as much to do with who he plays across from as what he is capable of.

CB: Brent Grimes—5 years, $55 million, $15 million guaranteed

I happen to like Grimes a lot. I think he's a fantastic player that, aside from some games missed due to injury this year, has played at a high level the last few seasons.

That said, teams might be concerned by the injuries in 2011—especially considering he was sidelined against the Giants in the playoffs. At 29, the miles add up, and for some players the drop from 'great' to 'hurt and mediocre' is a very precipitous one.

Grimes is expected to ask for similar numbers to what Dunta Robinson got in 2010, which added up to a six-year, $47 million deal.

With Grimes at 29, I see the Falcons balking at that, but I see someone else rolling the dice.

As much as I like Grimes, though, it's a bit too much for a cornerback hitting 30. The regression in numbers, even accounting for injury (and perhaps all the more concerning he got injured so often) is a concern.

Grimes will play well, but I think we'll continue to see him banged up, and a team who pays as much as he is allegedly looking for will end up frustrated with a player who has already peaked and will be coming down.

S: Michael Griffin—4 years, $40 million, $8 million guaranteed

Griffin is another potential franchise tag victim, or someone the Titans might try really hard to retain, because losing both Griffin and Cortland Finnegan would be a disaster.

Griffin is a versatile player who can stay at safety or fill in at cornerback, and there will be plenty of teams looking to secure his services.

I think paying him the money he could get (that I have him getting here) is a mistake. While he has been a playmaker off and on in Tennessee, he has been inconsistent in many other areas of his game.

Maybe you can plug him into an already strong secondary, but I think he will drive his coaches nuts when he doesn't produce the way they think he could based on what they paid him.

I know Pro Football Focus tagged him as one of the best safeties in the AFC South, but I think his (as PFF puts it) tendency toward "biting hard on play fakes" will get him burned for more than he's being paid.