Manchester City: 12 Reasons City Will Win English Premier League

Who ya got? Manchester City or Manchester United? The noisy neighbors or the evil empire?

As the title of this slideshow would suggest, we're about to try to convince you that Manchester City will win the English Premier League this season. The next 12 slides will serve as the arguments.

But first, let's concede the fact that picking a champion right now is madness.

With 14 matches remaining for every team, picking a champion is more an exercise in conjecture than anything. Between now and May 13, each team has the chance to collect as many as possible of the 42 points available—which means that, as of this writing, only Bolton and Wigan have been mathematically eliminated.

But while teams like QPR, Wolves and Blackburn are still technically alive in the title race, a betting man would likely put his money on either Manchester City or Manchester United. At seven points back, Tottenham Hotspur are still very much contenders, but for the purposes of this article, we'll be focusing only on City and United.

So, then, the question remains: Who ya got?

Home Form

Manchester City have played 12 home matches this season. They have won all 12.

In the Premier League era, 11 teams have posted undefeated home records. No team has won all 19 of home matches in a single season. Chelsea came closest in 2005-06, winning 18 matches and drawing one on the way to the league title. The Blues had another near-miss in 2009-10, when they won 17, lost one and drew one. They also won the title that season.

Of the 11 teams that posted undefeated home records, six finished as champions, four finished second and one third. That suggests an undefeated home record is a valuable, if incomplete guide for evaluating a team's chances at winning the title.

The 11 teams appear in the chart below.

Year	Team	W-D-L	Place
2010-11	Manchester United	18-1-0	1st
2008-09	Liverpool	12-7-0	2nd
2007-08	Chelsea	12-7-0	2nd
2007-08	Arsenal	14-5-0	3rd
2006-07	Chelsea	12-7-0	2nd
2005-06	Chelsea	18-1-0	1st
2004-05	Chelsea	14-5-0	1st
2003-04	Arsenal	15-4-0	1st
1999-00	Manchester United	15-4-0	1st
1998-99	Arsenal	14-5-0	2nd
1995-96	Manchester United	15-4-0	1st

As the chart shows, the four second-place finishers (Liverpool 2008-09, Chelsea 2007-08, Chelsea 2006-07 and Arsenal 1998-99) and one third-place finisher (Arsenal in 2007-08) averaged just over six draws per season. The title-winning home unbeatens averaged just over three.

Those numbers suggest that while keeping an unbeaten record at home is a decent predictor of success, it’s also important to maximize point totals by limiting home draws.

City have done well in that department this season. While it would be unrealistic to expect City to win all seven of their remaining home matches, it would also be wrong to think they will suddenly lose form altogether.

A return of five or more wins in those seven games would make City difficult to catch.

Roberto Mancini

Manchester United's Sir Alex Ferguson relishes the mind games managers commonly play. Ferguson famously got the best of Newcastle manager Kevin Keegan during the 1995-96 title run-in, and he's spent years sharpening his verbal-sparring technique against the sharp minds of Arsene Wenger and Jose Mourinho.

In Roberto Mancini, however, Ferguson has a worthy adversary. Mancini won three straight Serie A titles with Inter Milan from 2006-08, and he has lifted the Italian Cup four times and the FA Cup once.

That means Mancini is a manager with plenty of hard-won experience in title fights. He won't buckle under Ferguson's considerable verbal pressure (and it will be coming).

Dealing with Distractions

The Carlos Tevez saga could have been a major distraction for City. Tevez was arguably City's best player during last season's FA Cup run, and his absence this season probably should have presented a considerable obstacle for Mancini's team.

Instead, they haven't seemed to notice his absence at all. In fact, in light of recent reports it's possible—though unlikely—that Tevez could once again become a contributing member of City's first team.

Whether or not that happens, don't underestimate the value of City's collective ability to ignore such a potentially damaging distraction.

Sergio Agüero

One of the reasons for City's success without Tevez is this guy: Argentine forward Sergio Agüero.

Agüero joined City last summer form Atletico Madrid in a deal reportedly worth £38 million. Unlike other high-priced Premier League strikers like Chelsea's Fernando Torres and Liverpool's Andy Carrol, Agüero fit in immediately with his new club.

The 23-year-old scored twice and added an assist in his debut, a 4-0 thumping of Swansea City, and to date has scored 15 league goals.

Expect the goals to keep flowing as City hit the stretch run.

David Silva

David Silva has been one of Manchester City's most important attacking players. High scorers like Agüero (15 goals), Edin Dzeko (12) and Mario Balotelli (nine) have all spent time as the offensive focal point, but David Silva has given City something just as valuable: width.

The Spaniard leads City with 12 assists (Samir Nasri is a distant second with seven), and that number reflects his passing ability at least as much as it does the finishing abilities of the team's strikers. When David Silva is on the field and making passes and runs toward the middle from his wide position, City are at their best.

Attacking Depth

As the previous two slides have suggested, Manchester City possess attacking talent in depth. At striker, Agüero, Dzeko and Balotelli have combined for 36 league goals. Meanwhile, David Silva and Adam Johnson have scored five apiece from the midfield.

Speaking of the midfield, the unit has been deep enough to keep a player as talented as Samir Nasri on the substitutes' bench for large stretches this season. In general, when one City midfielder leaves a match, another dangerous attacker enters.

For City, that means offensive production is less likely to suffer due to an injury here or there.

Squad Depth

For that matter, City have depth throughout the squad. That's one positive side effect of having rich, results-driven owners who ignore the financial bottom line.

In fact, if City are short in any position, it's at striker, where Tevez's extended absence has forced Mancini to use a three-man rotation. But an abundant midfield presence has more than made up the difference.

City's back line, meanwhile, is stout. And the names represent international rosters from home and abroad: Gaël Clichy, Aleksandar Kolarov, Vincent Kompany, Joleon Lescott, Micah Richards, Stefan Savic and Kolo Toure.

Joe Hart

Behind the back line lurks Joe Hart, England's undisputed No. 1 keeper.

Hart was named to the PFA Team of the Year for 2009-10, which he spent on loan with Birmingham City. Since then he's earned the No. 1 jersey for both club and country, and he has earned a spot among the Premier League's top stoppers.

In Hart, City have a clear edge on Manchester United and Hart's counterpart, the error-prone David de Gea.

Defensive Record

Considering the combination of defensive depth and the progression of Hart, perhaps it's no surprise that City possess the Premier League's best defensive record.

Through 25 matches, Mancini's men have conceded 19 goals for an average of 0.76 per match. Liverpool hold the league's second-best defensive record with 23 goals allowed, but they've scored only 44 times against City's 64. United and Tottenham follow with 25 goals allowed.

As the saying goes, defense wins championships. For proof, ask 2004-05 Chelsea. As of now, City have the best defense.

Meanwhile, it's difficult to find statistics that favor United in the remaining matches. The defending champions are two points better than City against top-half competition, but City easily make up for that with a four-point advantage against lower-half opposition.

The two rivals are level on points over the last eight matches, and City hold a clear edge in home matches, as we've already mentioned. United lead City by three points on away form, but so far that hasn't been enough to overcome City in the table that counts.

United's Missing Faces

Manchester United will play without two core members for the rest of the season. Central midfielder Darren Fletcher is taking an extended break from football to recover from an abdominal condition, and central defender Nemanja Vidic suffered a season-ending injury in December.

In their place, United's replacements have performed admirably—especially Ryan Giggs (age 38) and Paul Scholes (37), the team's two ageless midfield wonders.

But what happens if a few more Red Devils fall victim to the injury bug?

Head-to-Head

Manchester City and Manchester United are scheduled to meet April 28 at the Etihad. If both teams maintain their current form, the match will serve as a title-decider.

Anything can happen in any given match, but the trends seem to favor Manchester City right now. As previously noted, City have won all 12 league matches at home this season.

And the last time City and United met in the league, this happened.

Goal Differential

In the Premier League era, the title has never been decided by goal differential. But if it happens this year, Manchester City would likely benefit.

The Blues currently boast the league's best goal differential at plus-45. Manchester United rank second at plus-36.

United still have time to make up the difference, but City have the edge for now.

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