2012 NFL Free Agents: Teams Sure to Overpay for Overhyped Veterans

Every year it happens, some team(s) with a need at a specific position overspends on the best available player at that position. Often times, that player isn't worth the contract they receive, but they were in the right place at the right time, and they cash in.

This NFL offseason will be no different, and these three teams are the most likely squads to overpay for mediocre play:

Washington Redskins

How big a difference does a QB make? The Redskins may be hoping it makes all the difference in the world. Washington has been called the front-runners to land Peyton Manning, if and when he becomes available. Robert Cobb of Profootballzone.com says this via zimbio.com:

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So far I get the feeling that a lot more people believe Manning will end up with the Redskins than the Dolphins, but both teams are certainly the ones that he’s being linked to at the moment.

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It could be via trade, but I expect the Colts will release him.

Whomever lands Manning would presumably be the favorites to land free-agent WR Reggie Wayne. The combined aged of those players is 69, so age would definitely be a concern.

Wayne is 33 and is still productive; he had 76 receptions for 960 yards last season, and those numbers would probably improve with a healthy Manning. However, a healthy Manning is far from a foregone conclusion. Manning’s injury is serious, and though doctors have given the OK to resume his career, teams must be wary of it reoccurring.

In addition to age and injury concerns, the offensive system dynamic is a factor. This isn’t the Colts’ system—will Mike Shanahan give in to a system that Manning is most comfortable with?

I don’t know about that relationship—it seems like an issue waiting to happen—since egos among coaches are huge in the NFL, especially if that coach has had success, as Shanahan has.

There are too many red flags for these signings. However, I still believe it will happen.

Why?

Because Redskins' owner Daniel Snyder loves to make a splash. Manning will be the most celebrated free agent in history, and Snyder will pull out all the stops to acquire him. That includes signing a 33-year-old Wayne, and overpaying for a legendary, but 36-year-old QB with a bad neck.

The offense will experience growing pains because of the system change, and the attack in Washington will not be the same one we saw Manning command in Indianapolis. By the time things get on track, there is no telling where Manning’s health will be, and if age will begin to deteriorate his game.

Manning signed an extension last year that would pay him $18 million per year. Even with injury concerns I can’t see him signing for less than $12 million per in a two-year deal. That is too much, especially with so much risk involved.

Miami Dolphins

The Redskins aren’t the only team that will overpay for a QB in 2012. With former Packers’ offensive coordinator Joe Philbin hired as the Dolphins’ new head coach, there is increased speculation that the team will target Packers’ free agent QB Matt Flynn for the starting job.

Flynn exploded in the season finale against the Lions for 480 yards and six TDs, so his stock is very high right now. I contend Matt Flynn is still not a franchise QB, but the Dolphins are about to pay him like one.

Flynn has appeared in 34 games in his four-year career, and he has had two starts. Has anyone seen enough of him in NFL competition to pay him big bucks?

Flynn made $555,000 this year, but as a player considered up and coming, and a product of Philbin’s explosive offense, he’s in line for a raise.

If the Dolphins are challenged for his services, the price will go up. If Flynn’s price tag hits the $3 million mark, buyer beware.

Flynn is too inexperienced and unproven to invest that much money and responsibility.

New York Jets

The Jets need a pass rusher like yesterday. The once vaunted Jets defense is carrying no one these days, and the biggest reason is the fact that they don’t have potent pass-rushers.

The Jets sack total was down five sacks in 2011 from 2010, a year in which they made the playoffs and went 11-5. An impact player off the edge would do wonders for the Jets defense.

Is there a player like that available, though?

The best OLB’s who fit the Jets scheme are free-agents Ahmad Brooks of the 49ers and the Jets' sack leader from 2011, Aaron Maybin. Brooks had a solid year as a part of an outstanding defense in San Francisco; the supporting cast with the Jets is not quite as good. 

They were fifth in total defense, while the Niners were fourth, but the Jets defense has several key players on the wrong side of 30. It’s a defense in decline.

If the Jets sign Brooks, he will be the best defensive player in the front seven, which means he’ll be most teams’ focus. Teams weren’t able to do that to him in San Francisco, as Justin Smith and Patrick Willis commanded so much attention.

Brooks had seven sacks with the Niners this past year, I’d be willing to bet that number decreases if the Jets sign him. They could bring Maybin back—he did lead the team in sacks with six, but he didn’t record a QB take-down in the last three games. 

The Jets will get competition from other teams in signing either of them, and once the price tag reaches the $4 million per year mark, it’ll be too high for the production they will receive on the field in 2012.

Still, I see the Jets signing one of them. One good thing for Jets’ fans is that the team is likely to use their first-round pick on a pass rusher as well. Maybe Nick Perry of USC or Courtney Upshaw of Alabama will supply the pass rush the team needs.

Because these two are bound to let the Jets down.