UEFA Champions League 2012: 5 Teams That Will Surprise in Knockout Stages

The UEFA Champions League gets underway again next week as the pivotal knockout rounds begin. Only 16 teams remain in this year’s competition with a mix of those expected and perhaps a few surprises.

There will surely be some blowouts and second legs played by reserve squads, as the careful balancing act between winning and resting for the many competitions these teams are now in begins.

The usual faces are present in this season’s crop such as Barcelona, Milan, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. However, there are also some that come not only as a surprise to make it this far, but perhaps even have a chance of moving on.

Here are five teams that may surprise you in the round of 16.

Chelsea

Going into the season, you would be hard pressed to find someone that would not have put Chelsea as a clear-cut favorite over Italian side Napoli. The Blues were coming of a season that is relatively decent, finishing runners-up in England and semifinalists in Europe.

With that not being enough for megalomaniac owner Roman Abramovich, he decided to clean house ousting Carlo Ancelotti and bringing in the young Andre Villas-Boas.

The new manager promised a more attractive brand of football, and with summer signings like Juan Mata and Raul Meireles you have to figure that this side would only improve over last year’s.

Instead, things have been going less than well at Stamford Bridge. Currently fighting to stay in a Champions League spot for next season, the Blues could head to Naples winless in their last five league games and potentially out of the FA Cup, pending results ahead of the trip.

Villas-Boas has not been officially placed on the hot seat yet, but it is surely warming up. All that is really left to save him is a strong showing in Champions League.

Napoli has not had the season they were hoping for, but was one of the best sides in the group stages of Champions League. They have a solid defense and Edinson Cavani is a major threat in front of goal.

For Chelsea, who has found goals hard to come by and consistently let in gimmes against in-form strikers, it does not bode too well for the men from London.

The odds makers have Chelsea as the favorite, but I see this more as being out of respect than reality. As weird as it may seem, Chelsea in their current state are the underdogs, and progressing to the quarterfinals would be a surprise to me.

Arsenal

Another tough year for the Gunners as Arsene Wenger’s men will most likely go another year without lifting the Premier League title. The club currently sits in sixth place and 17 points adrift from league leaders Manchester City.

However, their chances of winning the club game’s biggest honor is far better than any other English team.

Arsenal has been pitted against AC Milan in the round of 16. Most clubs would not like to see them on their schedule, but currently it may fare better than most other teams.

Milan are the clear favorites to progress as they have had a good season already in both Italy and Europe.

However, that good season means they will be battling in multiple competitions at the same time. In a heated race with Juventus for the Serie A title, they cannot afford even the slightest let up against their rivals who do not have to do the balancing act they must.

Similarly, Arsenal’s main concentration will be focused on their Champions League hopes.

With Milan up against a tough Udinese side a few days before and Arsenal facing Sunderland, the Gunners have the advantage in terms of rest.

If Arsenal is able to take advantage of a tired Milan side coming off of back-to-back tough matchups, they could easily steal a goal or two in Italy, making it all easier for the upset advancement in the return leg.

Bayer Leverkusen

By no means a safe place to put your money, it is also not a lock for Barca.

Leverkusen is back in the Champions League knockout rounds for the first time since 2005 when they were handled in the round of 16 by Liverpool losing 6-2 agg. Being sure not to repeat the embarrassment, Leverkusen will be looking to at least keep it respectable this time around.

Unfortunately for them, they will have to do that against the best club in the world.

Barcelona will obviously have just as much motivation to win as the Germans, but like Milan, are in a very tight title race against Madrid. Leverkusen, on the other hand, is nearly out of title contention in Germany.

With an experienced midfield anchored by German legend Michael Ballack, the underdogs may be able to control the center of the pitch a little better than the Catalans would hope.

Barcelona is so used to breaking down undisciplined midfields with quick passing and smart runs, that they can sometimes themselves become frustrated if the opponents hold their ground.

This will mostly be a surprise because it is the one result perhaps no one would expect. If the champions were to be knocked out by a side that is not even in the top half of this year’s contenders, then it will surely shock everyone.

APOEL

I would be lying to you if I were to say I know much about this club. My knowledge is limited to what I read and to two games where they gave Chelsea a run for their money back in 2009.

However, the Cyprus champions deserve our attention as not only do they look to repeat again at home, but are a formidable side in Europe as well.

Making it to the knockout rounds is not unprecedented for such a small side, but doing so as the winner of the group is. Yes, it was by far the easiest without a team from one of the top leagues in it, but you cannot blame that on the winners.

Considering they kept high-scoring attacks such as Zenit St. Petersburg and Porto to no more than a single goal both times they played them, is a testament to this stingy and organized defense.

Facing off against Lyon will be their toughest test this season, but it also is a very winnable game for APOEL. The French side has been an average team this year and really struggled on the road.

If APOEL can keep respectable in France and perhaps even snag a goal, they truly improve their chances of moving on and making it further than any undersized club ever has.

FC Basel

In what was the biggest upset of the group stage, English power Manchester United found themselves not moving on to the round of 16 mostly due to their inability to overcome the Swiss champs.

Basel recorded a 3-3 tie against the Red Devils and a 2-1 victory, both of which’s score lines were due to very late goals from United. The results were enough to get Basel second in the group and put them up against German giants Bayern Munich.

Munich was arguably in the most difficult group, but found their way through on top at a time when the club was riding high. However, they have settled down since then and returned to some sort of normalcy.

They will be the clear favorites as they head to the Alps for the first leg, but that does not mean that Basel does not hold a chance.

Basel performed excellently against United, and the style of play for United and Munich does not vary that much. Both teams like to use wingers who get up the pitch fast and who feed the ball to the forwards in the middle.

The formations vary a bit, in that Munich prefers a single striker, but the full-backs for Basel have the pace to keep up with Munich’s wingers.

If Basel is able to force Munich to go a more central route, then they will be able to control their distribution better and rely on their young center backs David Abraham and Aleksandar Dragovic to contain Mario Gomez.

Furthermore, Munich likes to push forward on the counter which exposes themselves to the same the other way. Fabian Frei has been nothing short of excellent exposing counters, scoring three goals and adding an assist in his six Champions League games.

Bayern has a lot more at stake than Basel, and the pressure may begin to mount as it has in Germany. If it does and they aren’t able to take something away from Switzerland, then it could be a surprise to all. Except Basel of course.

What Upsets Do You See?

I am not big on making predictions. As a matter of fact, I hate it, but it can be fun to do so if it is outside the box.

I do not claim to have any inside knowledge or even the technical know how of how to justify these picks, but then again it all does not matter because it is a game played on the field, not paper.

So who do you think will be upset in the first round? Is Napoli really the favorites? Could high-flying Madrid go down in the cold of Russia?

Feel free to answer these or any other questions you may have!

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