Jon Jones: Top 10 Threats to Jones' UFC Light Heavyweight Title in 2012

UFC light heavyweight champion, Jon "Bones" Jones, and former training partner and current rival, "Suga" Rashad Evans, will finally face off this April.

The matchup, delayed multiple times by various injuries to the combatants, has long been thought to be the most intriguing bout conceivable at 205 pounds. 

Though the obsession with making this fight a reality remains ever present in the minds of the UFC brass and fans alike, Evans is not the only threat Jones will encounter in 2012.

Bones has spent the last few years climbing—nay, jumping—to the top of the sport's pound-for-pound ranking list, and though he seems untouchable, the UFC and MMA scene at large is packed with talent in the 205-pound division.

Jones will have to be wary of these 10 guys in particular before he rings in the New Year.

10: Gegard Mousasi: A Potential Strikeforce Import

Why is he on the list?

No, Mousasi is not on the UFC roster. Yet. Dana White has expressed interest in bringing Mousasi to the world's biggest MMA promotion before, and now that the "Dreamcatcher" is fighting under the Zuffa banner, the transition seems to be but a matter of time.

Mousasi's star has fallen a bit over the past two years since a 2008 victory in the Dream Middleweight Grand Prix catapulted the Dutch star into the spotlight. Even so, Mousasi is a supremely talented fighter who is comfortable anywhere the fight takes him.

Though no one of his skills will blow anyone away, if Jon Jones is in fact human and does in fact have a weakness, Mousasi is a good candidate to find it.

Does he have a chance?

There is always a chance in MMA, but even ranking as the 10th biggest threat to Jon Jones' UFC strap, Mousasi is a long shot. If he found a way to pull off the upset, Matt's Serra's trouncing of Georges St-Pierre will, in retrospect, look like the most logical thing in the world.

Mousasi has a tendency to lose his focus in fights, but even if he comes in as the best, most focused fighter he has ever been, it would still be a bad night for him. 

Picture what Jones did to Shogun Rua at UFC 128—but worse.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

About the same chance he would have to beat Jones if they actually do fight. Mousasi would have to beat Mike Kyle in March, book it to the UFC, and beat two top-tier LHW fighters in about six months total.

Unlikely.

9: Rafael Cavalcante: Serious KO Power

Why is he on the list?

Like Mousasi, Cavalcante is a Strikeforce combatant who would first need to jump to the UFC in order to vie for Jones' title.

Cavalcante has dynamite in his hands and is capable of knocking out any fighter on the planet, including Jon Jones. 

Does he have a chance?

A puncher's chance, as they say.

Cavalcante would be outclassed by Jones in every facet of the game, even striking. That said, Cavalcante does have a power advantage, and if he clipped Jones he would be the new UFC LHW champ.

The problem for "Feijao" is that no one seems to be able to clip Jones. If not Shogun, nor Machida, nor Rampage, conventional wisdom would suggest not Cavalcante.

Jones by early knockout in this hypothetical matchup.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

Not likely, though stranger things have happened. If he transitions to the UFC, he would likely have to put away at least two top fighters before getting a shot. 

Let's just say he needs to get winning and get winning quickly.

8: Alexander Gustafsson: Future Top Contender

Why is he on the list?

Gustafsson has the potential to be a top light heavyweight in the UFC, and it looks like he'll get there sooner rather than later.

A deadly striker with the capacity to take a punch, Gustafsson has shown a brisk evolution since his promotional debut in 2009, going 5-1, with five finishes, since that time.

Simply put, Gustafsson is an assassin. He has the ability to finish anyone at any time during any fight.

Does he have a chance?

Because of his capacity to finish fights quickly, he does. But realistically, a very insignificant one.

"The Mauler" is long and powerful, but Jones is longer and more powerful, giving the champ the advantage in striking. Even so, the most likely scenario to play out if these two hook 'em up later this year is a submission win for Jones.

There is no way the Swede can stop the takedowns of "Bones."

Will he have a shot in 2012?

Possibly. Gustafsson will take on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira this April, and a win may put him behind only Dan Henderson in line to face the winner of Jones-Evans.

7: Roger Gracie: The Best Jiu-Jitsu at 205 Pounds

Why is he on the list?

Jones is ridiculously well rounded, and finding a similarly complete package is like setting the champ against a poor man's version of himself. In this case, we take a different route to finding a viable contender for the UFC strap.

There are certainly better all-around fighters than Gracie, but Jones has never really been challenged on the ground, and no one is more singularly apt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at 205 than Roger.

If Gracie could get the fight to the ground, he would present a situation that may very well be the best chance we have to see Jon Jones lose a fight. (Gracie is another Stikeforce fighter.)

Does he have a chance?

Just as Cavalcante has a puncher's chance, Gracie has a grappler's chance.

The flashes of jiu-jitsu that Jones has shown us have been quite impressive, but there is no doubt Gracie would have a marked advantage on the ground. The problem, of course, is that every round sees the fighters begin on their feet, and it is hard to envision Gracie taking the kingpin to the floor.

Jones' immensely superior wrestling and striking would be the difference here, likely earning him a quick KO.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

Unlikely. He is another guy that would need to transition from Strikeforce and then pick up some wins. And, if he wants to pick up wins against the elite of the UFC's light heavyweight roster, he needs to round out his game a bit.

6: Muhammed Lawal: The Strikeforce King

Why is he on the list?

Yet another Strikeforce competitor, "King Mo" has a ton of power and an amazing wrestling pedigree. He only has 10 fights as a mixed martial artist, but stands at 9-1, with victories over Roger Gracie and Gegard Mousasi.

Lawal could grind with Jones for five rounds or even stun the UFC champion with a big punch.

Does he Have a Chance?

Barely.

"King Mo" is a very good fighter, but his strengths are the same as Jones'. He is an excellent wrestler with developing standup, but Jones is better in both areas of the game. 

Lawal would need to put on the performance of his life, and even so, he would be lucky to make it the distance against Jones.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

Possibly, though not likely. He would have to follow the same route —transfer, win two fights, then challenge for the belt—as most of the other potential Strikeforce imports. A tall order to accomplish before the end of the year, especially since King Mo will be serving a suspension until summer.

5: Phil Davis: Up and Comer

Why is he on the list?

If you saw Davis get outclassed by Rashad Evans at UFC on FOX 2, you may deem this ranking overly generous. However, Davis is the only man in the division who is on the same planet as Jones in terms of athleticism, and "Mr. Wonderful" has as bright a future as any fighter in the UFC.

If the loss to Evans serves as a learning experience for Davis, he could come back better than ever. With tremendous wrestling ability, a deadly submission game, and a diverse striking arsenal that is slowly but surely developing, Davis is a threat to any light heavyweight.

Does he have a chance?

Depends.

If the same Phil Davis that fought Rashad Evans fights Jon Jones, then no. If Davis learns from his loss and uses it as a tool to improve his game, then yes.

Davis is an athletic freak who possesses an off-the-charts work ethic. He is a very intelligent guy, and with only 10 fights under his belt, he has thus far only skimmed the surface of his deep well of potential.

Once Davis evolves into the best fighter he can be, he will give Jones a run for his money. But, Jones has a significant head start on the learning curve, and should keep ahead until at least 2013.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

The loss to Evans was a real setback. Davis may need two more quality wins over before he even receives consideration for a shot at Jones. Delaying such a bout would actually be beneficial to Davis, as he could use a few more bouts to develop his game. 

This fight will happen, but probably not until 2013.

4: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua: Looking to Put It All Together

Why is he on the list?

Shogun was once the most feared striker in the light heavyweight division. Recently though, he has struggled to put in consist efforts.

His fight against Henderson was an epic war that won Shogun a slew of new fans, but it was not a true demonstration of his skill. Shogun is a better fighter than he showed against Henderson, and he is most certainly a better fighter than he showed against Jones.

Does he have a chance?

The former UFC champ's first fight against incumbent throne-holder would suggest an emphatic "no." However, if Shogun puts in the type of performance he is capable of, then....a small one.

Shogun is quick and powerful, but Jones looked like he was fighting a toddler in their first encounter. If the two were to have at it in a rematch it would almost certainly be more competitive, but Jones would still enjoy a large margin of error.

Even if Shogun found a way to get the better of Jones on the feet, his takedown defense would be no match for Jones, and he would likely suffer a submission loss, or a one-sided decision.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

Quite possibly. Shogun's losing performance against Henderson was inspired enough to keep his place in the line. While the first fight he had with Jones has left few clamoring for a rematch, if he wins impressively in his next fight he may warrant consideration for a title shot.

If the Brazilian doesn't get one after a single fight, it shouldn't take more than a second win for a chance to recapture UFC gold. 

3: Lyoto Machida: The Best so Far

Why is he on the list?

Machida possesses a unique style that is terribly difficult for most fighters to decipher. He is well rounded, and intelligent.

Machida and Jones already have one contest in the books, and it was a very competitive one—for one round.

Does he have a chance?

A small one.

Though Machida was submitted in the second round of their 2011 contest, he looked very good in the first round, winning it in the opinion of most. That said, how do you reconcile the belief that he could do that five times in a row against Jones when he was finished in under 10 minutes?

Machida is an unorthodox striker and it could just be that Jones needed five minutes to figure him out. If that indeed is the case, a second bout may not make it to the second round.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

Possibly. Machida is at the stage of his career where he will fight nothing but high-ranked opponents. If he puts together a pair of finishes over top 10 ranked light heavyweights, he'll be knocking on the door.

2: Dan Henderson: A Candidate to Pull a "Randy Couture"

Why is he on the list?

Conventional wisdom would suggest that "Hendo" should be on the decline at age 41, but his recent string of victories over highly-regarded opponents seems to indicate that this is not so. 

The Pride, Strikeforce and UFC veteran is a top-notch wrestler, and possesses a granite chin that has prevented him from suffering a knock out in 37 professional fights. He also has a right hand that would break through a safe at Fort Knox.

Henderson's next fight will likely be against the winner of the Jones-Evans matchup this April.

Does he have a chance?

A small chance.

Henderson's only chance to win is his big right hand. Though that sounds like a long shot, it has brought him victories against some terrific opponents in the past, and is not to be underestimated.

And considering how difficult he is to KO, he may very well have the full 25 minutes to try to connect against Jones.

However, Jones may prove to be too toolsy for Henderson, and in spite of Dan's wrestling background, the probability that the challenger ends up on his back is significant. 

A submission win for Jones is a very likely outcome to this bout.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

Yes.

His shot at the title should come late this summer.

*Henderson is now toying with picking up another fight this spring to keep busy, possibly a heavyweight fight.

1: Rashad Evans: The Fight We All Want

Why is he on the list?

For the obvious reason that he is the next fighter who will challenge Jon Jones for the UFC light heavyweight title.

Rashad is a well-rounded fighter with exceptional MMA wrestling and enviable hand speed.

The former training partner of Jones has a well-documented beef with the current kingpin, which makes this match all the more intriguing.

Does he have a chance?

He has the best chance of any light heavyweight fighter there is, but it still isn't a great one.

Rashad and Jones both come from wrestling backgrounds, and have both developed dangerous striking. Ultimately, I anticipate the physical length of Jones trumping Rashad's quickness on the feet, and if Suga rushes in to clinch with the champ he will more than likely end up on his back.

Rashad could surprise everyone and pull off a takedown, but I think Jones will have the skill and leverage to get back up and pick Rashad apart.

Finishing Evans is a tall order, so this one may go to decision, though a Jones knock out is well within the realm of possibility.

Will he have a shot in 2012?

Yes. He will battle Jones for light heavyweight supremacy in April.