2012 NFL Free Agents: Identifying the Biggest Risk at Every Position

The following players are the riskiest at their respective positions during the 2012 NFL free agent period.

NFL teams are allowed to start signing free agents on March 13. 

QUARTERBACK: Matt Flynn, Packers

He'll be the most coveted name outside Peyton Manning at quarterback. But with only two career starts on one of the NFL's most loaded offenses, it's hard to distinguish what kind of player Flynn will be outside of Green Bay. He's going to cost a pretty penny too.

The least amount of risk for Flynn is in Miami, where former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin is now head coach.  

RUNNING BACK: Peyton Hillis, Browns

Hillis really couldn't have asked for a worse contract season than the one he produced in 2011. There were injuries, spats with management and a general lack of production.

It's possible that a change of scenery could do him wonders. But in a year where the motivation level (theoretically) should have been highest, Hillis had a terrible season. He's not worth even mid-level running back money.

RECEIVER/TIGHT END: DeSean Jackson, Eagles

The attitude would scare the bejesus out of me, especially if you gave Jackson a big contract to leave Philadelphia. He's just one of those guys who you could see falling off once he gets the dollar signs in his eyes.

There's huge risk here, despite the fact that Jackson can be a game-changer on offense and special teams when he's in top form.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Jared Gaither, Chargers

Gaither bounced around from the Ravens to Chiefs to Chargers over the last 12 months—a concerning sign for a guy that plays such a valued position on the offensive line.

Once in San Diego, however, Gaither settled down and played well at left tackle. That stretch of play could overvalue Gaither heading into free agency. 

DEFENSIVE LINE: Robert Mathis, Colts

It's nothing more than a hunch, but you get the feeling that the rebuilding Colts won't want to spend top dollar on a 30-year-old defensive end when they already have almost $14 million tied into Dwight Freeney.

If the Colts do let Mathis test the free agent waters, he'll likely get a good number of offers. But for the price you'll have to (over)pay to get Mathis, the return from a player in his 30s might not ultimately be worth the cost.   

LINEBACKER: Anthony Spencer, Cowboys

The numbers—17 sacks in three years—and age (27) will be appealing in a free agent-market that lacks a dominant 3-4 rush linebacker. But Spencer has been an annual underachiever, and that's playing opposite DeMarcus Ware.

Someone will overpay for Spencer, then regret it in 2012 when he doesn't produce.

DEFENSIVE BACK: Carlos Rogers, 49ers

Few players benefited more from signing a one-year deal last summer. An underrated and undervalued player in Washington, Rogers signed with the 49ers after the lockout and ended up being a big reason for the 49ers turning into a dominant defense in 2011.

But with a Pro Bowl under his belt, will a team in need of a cornerback spend too much on the soon-to-be 31-year-old? You can't discount how much the 49ers pressure up front help Rogers too. His best football might be behind him.