NFL Free Agency: The Curious Case of Peyton Manning

The football world is ablaze with Peyton Manning news and speculation, and the Miami Dolphins are in the thick of it all. The elder Manning brother is virtually certain to be jettisoned from the rebuilding Colts, which will leave him with a plethora of options in free agency.

Stephen Ross has reportedly made the 36-year-old quarterback the top priority for the Dolphins, but there has been a surprising amount of anti-Manning sentiment among the ranks of Fin fans.

Why bypass an elite quarterback whose competitive fire must be stoked by his younger brother's Super Bowl victory? Health is the overbearing issue, but there is more to it than that.

Should the Dolphins Sign Peyton Manning?

The fact is, there will be a market for the aging veteran, meaning he will not come cheaply. Perhaps Manning is at a stage in his career where money is not as important as signing in the right place, but eschewing big money to sign in a particular location is a rare occurrence in sports.

There has been talk of an incentive-laden contract for Manning, a precaution against further injury or a poor recovery, and an admission by the veteran that he carries a significant risk. Whether Manning would be willing to sign such a contract depends on his desire for a specific landing spot over a big chunk of change, which he is sure to be offered. Miami may have an advantage in this regard.

ESPN's Adam Schefter has recently reported that the Dolphins are the favorites to sign Manning. Miami offers him a great locale, a solid roster and a chance to take down Tom Brady twice a year. He already owns a condo in the area, and rumors whisper that Mrs. Manning prefers the area. In picking Miami, Peyton would not have to face his own brother twice a year or move to the far away Pacific Northwest (an area I quite like, incidentally). It is no wonder that Vegas oddsmakers recently made them 5/2 favorites to land the soon-to-be-former Colt.

The question about whether or not Manning wants to come to Miami at whatever price is irrelevant if he cannot play at a reasonably high level, however. His medical clearance does not come with a stamp of approval to quarterback an NFL team. If he is unable to throw a decent pass, medical clearance amounts to saying my toddler is eligible to play. The nerves in his arm may eventually regenerate to a good point, and he insists he is on track with his recovery.

The trouble is that free agency hits in a month, and the Colts may release him sooner than that, which would make him fair game for any team. Some say he could be back to throwing darts by the end of the month, but the Dolphins might be forced to make an early decision on an aging quarterback coming off serious neck surgery who is having trouble throwing the ball because of nerve issues in his throwing arm. He would have to shake off a season's worth of rust and digest a new offense to boot.

If anyone has the talent and work ethic to overcome this mountain of obstacles, though, it is Peyton Manning.

Of course, Manning represents a caliber of quarterback the Dolphins have not seen since Dan Marino's heyday. That alone may make the prospect of landing him at a high price worth it, even if it comes with an incredible amount of risk. After all, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre have defied nature and history with great success beyond 35 years of age in recent years.

History be damned, Miami would rather have a risky, elite-but-declining quarterback for a few seasons than sit in Chad Henne purgatory for another year. Manning brings two Super Bowl appearances, four MVPs and a championship with him. The same cannot be said of any other options, and Manning would bring the most buzz to Sun Life Stadium, to put the cherry on top.

What of the Alternatives?

Miami is fortunate to have hired Joe Philbin in more ways than one, but the fact that he has worked closely with Matt Flynn over the past couple of seasons bears the most immediate fruit.

Should the Dolphins pass on Flynn, that will tell us all what we need to know about Flynn: He is not worth the trouble. He may be a hot free-agent commodity based on his success in limited playing time, but nobody is better suited to judge his value than Philbin, and the Dolphins happen to employ him as head coach.

Before Manning mania hit Miami, there was a strong sentiment the Dolphins would try to trade up for Robert Griffin III. The truth there is, he would likely come far cheaper than Manning or Flynn and represents an upside the veterans lack. The same could be said of Ryan Tannehill, who has made his way into the top 10 among draftniks. He may not make it to the Dolphins in the draft.

Brandon Weeden can be had a bit later in the draft because of age concerns, but will that satisfy the fanbase? The problem here is, Dolphins fans grow weary of mediocrity, and plugging a rookie in at starter could prove disastrous. 

There is, ultimately, the Matt Moore alternative. As unspeakable as that might sound for Dolphins fans, Jeff Ireland has spoken highly of Moore despite also saying the team needs to find a solution at quarterback. Should the Dolphins strike out on Manning, pass on Flynn and lose out on Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden, Moore might be given a chance to build on what wound up being a decent season.

This would, of course, be the worst of all possible outcomes in the quarterback sweepstakes. One must hope that, if Stephen Ross' infatuation with Manning proves to be true, the cost is well in line with the risk.

In the end, the best outcome would be a healthy, fully-functioning Laser Rocket Arm tossing the pigskin around Sun Life Stadium and leading the Dolphins to the playoffs and beyond.

The real question for Dolphins fans is this: Feeling lucky?