Premier League 2011/2012 Season: The Race for Champions League Football

We're just under two-third's of the way through the season, and the battle for four-place is starting to heat up now.

After 24 games, who would have thought the chase for the final Champions League spot would still be contested by the four clubs it was earlier on in the season?

The idea that more than seven clubs have a strong and realistic chance of playing in the Champions League next season is an idea that is almost foreign to the Premier League, so let's enjoy it whilst it lasts.

Chelsea FC

Out of all the clubs on the edge of, or just outside of the top 4, Chelsea are the biggest underachievers.

Having spent over £90m within the last year alone on star names such as Fernando Torres, David Luiz and Juan Mata, they have fallen short of expectations by a landslide. There hasn't been just one problem with Chelsea, but many, and as the season goes on it doesn't look as if Andrea Villas-Boas is any closer to sorting them out.

The most obvious shortcoming is the lack of goals.

With a strike-force that consists of Didier Drogba, Fernando Torres and Daniel Sturridge, it is almost impossible that they have only scored 41 league goals, nine of them (a record tally for any single player so far this season for the club), belong to the youngster Sturridge.

Their other top goalscorer is Frank Lampard, a man who's future has been in constant doubt throughout the season. 

Fernando Torres has only scored five goals in 30 appearances for the Blues, a conversion rate that does not befit a player of a transfer value of £10m, let alone £50m.

Another persistence of Villas-Boas, which maybe slightly influenced by Roman Abramovich, is that of playing the out of form Spaniard over Didier Drogba. Drogba has made 13 appearances for Chelsea this season, four from the bench, and has scored six goals. Drogba quite clearly fits into Chelsea's system a lot better, and performs when he is asked to, despite his age.

He likely will not get the chance to regain the centre forward role full-time however, at least not in my opinion anyway, whilst Fernando Torres is still with the club.

Two points will keep Torres in the starting line-up regularly, the first being the humiliation in Chelsea spending so much money on a striker who on merit, shouldn't be near the starting eleven, and therefore on merit, not starting him. However merit is not the key here, the key has to be somewhere between Abramovich and Villas-Boas. And of course, the second point, a wild thought (as wild as the thoughts of Big Foot or the Lochness Monster existing), and that is Fernando Torres actually finding goal-scoring form.

For the last few years Chelsea have been screaming for creativity, it has been a side full of direct players and goal-scorers such as Drogba, Malouda, Lampard and Anelka, players who could influence games at will.

However, they've lost that spark that they used to have, that used to open up opposition defences and made them the most formidable attack in the league, whether it be due to age or form, they have lost it. The one man who could offer something remarkably different, exciting and full of creativity is a man who has time and time again, been pushed out wide onto the left wing.

Why? I couldn't possibly say, but it has been something AVB has been persisting with.

You'd think that would be all I'd have to say on the club regarding their forwards, but it's not, they do lack a winger, a winger who is technically sound, who can create chances as well as score them.

They did sign Kevin De Bruyn in the January transfer window, and had to loan him back, so you would think that he'll be in contention for the first team next season, as he will offer an attacking creativity that Florent Malouda simply doesn't, however this is an analysis of this season's 4th place run in, and that move currently leaves them short of options and creativity up-front.

In January Chelsea signed Gary Cahill for about £7m, quite a bargain for an English player of his quality. Cahill offers Chelsea what John Terry and David Luiz do not, and that is cover.

Playing Terry and Luiz together has caused the west Londoners real problems in defence.

David Luiz is a player who's defensive abilities remain in question, as soon as he joined the club he made the headlines, but not for the reason he was brought to the club, but rather the opposite. His ability to pass the ball, dribble with it as well as score a goal made him the flavour of the month amongst a lot of fans and pundits.

This however, covered over the defensive cracks he was showing, cracks he still hasn't managed to seal up and doesn't look likely to. Luiz is not a mature defender, not aware of the game around him. If you give him the ball and the opportunity to charge forward, he will, no matter how big of a gap in the defence it will leave.

This then leaves John Terry to cover it, a man who is quite frankly not smart enough, fast enough or good enough to do so. Terry was for years partnered by Carvalho, they worked greatly in unison, whilst Terry had the ability to command and organise a defence, he never had the ability to deal with (as stated above), being the last man back. Ricardo Carvalho did, which supplemented Terry superbly and created a great defensive partnership which consisted of that great battling centre back, and smarter, more aware and better tackler of the ball, to cover his tracks.

The Brazilian Alex then offered this once Carvalho left, but despite being one of the better centre backs in the league, Villas-Boas does not see him (for whatever reason), good enough to command a position within the squad, let alone the starting eleven.

So with a battler of the ball, someone who will throw himself into challenges and look to be the first to clear the ball, as well as a defensively inept and naive centre back, Chelsea brought in Gary Cahill, a man who fulfils the requirements needed to partner either Terry or Luiz. Smart, well placed, good technique and a good tackler and header of the ball, the jigsaw that is their defence looks, for now, to be completed. However, as shown against Manchester United on Sunday, it will take time for that piece of the jigsaw to settle in, to be integrated into it so much that you wouldn't have thought he is a new addition, and this may cost Chelsea dearly.

One added bonus for the Blues is the return of Michael Essien who, on his day, is one of the best central midfielder's in the league, but is he enough to plug the gaps and make that final stride for a Champions League birth?

I don't think so.

Newcastle United FC

Newcastle FC have done tremendously well to stay up so high in the league, whilst they had a great striker in Demba Ba, as well as midfielder's like Yohan Cabaye and Chiek Tiote. They have defender's such as Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor, a player who has been a revelation for the Geordie's this season and has been key to their brilliant form, and of course we cannot forget the man between the sticks, Tim Krul: one of the most talented keepers in the league and definitely a player for the future.

With all of that though, they still don't have any depth.

After losing a number of players for different reasons throughout the season, Demba Ba, Chiek Tiote, Yohan Cabaye and Steven Taylor (Taylor being missed the most), they really didn't have the personnel to replace them effectively, which has shown as unfortunately for them, as they've dropped points this season which maybe wouldn't have happened if they were at full strength.

Of course all four clubs can say that they may have won games that they shouldn't have lost or drawn if they were at full strength, however the other three have much better options in reserve, and you would expect them not to drop as many points as the side from the north east has.

However, the fact that Newcastle are currently fifth, is testament to the hard work they have put in. For their club to have such a weaker squad, with much less spent on it and still be able to be well into the race for four place, well that just shows how far they've come this season.

Although, it could be argued that they've had more favourable fixtures, they still have to travel to London to play Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea, entertain Manchester City at home and play Everton at Goodison Park. These clubs are no easy opponents for they all are renowned for their ability to turn up the pressure in the second half of the season, and even Everton (who used to be looked at as just another easier opponent) have seen Steven Peinaar return, as well as welcoming newly signed striker from Rangers, Nikica Jelavic.

Out of all four clubs, Newcastle definitely have the hardest run-in, but, it is also an opportunity to gain three points each over two of their four place rivals, and potentially Tottenham, depending on how well they end the season.

I don't think Newcastle will finish as the four, I expect them to drop down to seven by the end of the season, however with the newly signed Papiss Cisse, they will have a lot of fire-power ready and waiting for anyone who dares play against them.

Arsenal FC

Arsenal, for whatever reason you believe, being bottle jobs, lacking finances to keep key players, poor choice of transfers, the exit of David Dein, sticking to a youth first transfer policy or whatever other reasons have found themselves without a trophy in over 6 years now.

Whilst Chelsea have been the bigger underachievers this season when you compare how much they've spent recently, Arsenal have definitely underachieved so much that some will think finishing within the top four would be overachieving, when such thoughts could be taken seriously and be well argued in a debate.

With 14 games to go, Arsenal have quite a difficult task ahead of them. Whilst they have a lot of winnable games, they've also got to play Tottenham, Newcastle, Everton, Manchester City, Chelsea and Stoke City. Anything can happen in these games, and they will need to be at full strength to trump them all.

Throughout December and January the side really struggled for goals, as a seemingly over-reliance on Robin van Persie was found, and time and time again the Dutchman came to the Gunners rescue.

However, this was not down to a lack of quality in the box, but rather a lack of options inside it. Bacary Sanga and Andre Santos' injuries coincided within a period of time where Arsenal struggled to score more than one goal a game, only doing it four times in 12 games. This meant that Arsenal were left with no natural wing-backs, which meant there was a lack of width when going forward.

Because of this, Theo Walcott, Andrei Arshavin, Gervinho and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain were all expected to create the natural width, as well as attack the goal. With the midfield's persistence to not being able to create their own gaps, along with the reluctance to push bodies into the box, this meant that more often than not Robin van Persie was the only player in the area.

Naturally, Arsenal's 7-1 thrashing handed out to Blackburn came from a side who's wing-backs were pushing forward and had adopted to their roles properly, even if only temporarily, which allowed the likes of Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain to flood the box when attacking.

Bacary Sanga is close to full fitness, and has made three appearances (two as a substitute), since his injury lay off.

Andre Santos is expected to be back to full fitness within the next few weeks, as could be Jack Wilshere.

Personally, Arsenal are my favourites to attain the all coveted final Champions League place, and with a fully fit squad coming back together within the next few game-weeks, as well as a manager who has consistently guided them to top four finishes for 14 years now.

They've finally got the wind in their sails, whereas their competitors have generally performed poorly, quite inconsistently, with full squads, more often than not throughout the season so far.

Liverpool FC

And now finally, Liverpool Football Club.

With the money they have spent over the last year, they should be finishing fourth at the very least. It's no secret where their problem lies, and that is in the goal-scoring department.

Over the last year they have spent over £98m on attacking players alone, which is amazing considering they have the worst conversion rate and the 12th best goal tally in the league.

Liverpool are probably the easiest club to dissect here, they create chance after chance. They have the second best defensive record. But the one thing lacking, is that they quite simply need a goal-scorer.

Unfortunately for them, the man who is currently in that role is Andy Carroll, who hardly is a consistent or even a proven goal-scorer at Premier League level, but here he is. 

He is starting to come into some form however.  Carroll has been linking up well with the players around him and the ball is flowing a lot smoother than it was earlier in the year, but maybe that's more down to Steven Gerrard's ability to precisely move the ball from one side of the pitch to the other, within a blink of the eye, rather than Carroll's efforts on and off the ball.

Either way, he's suiting their play more and more as the games go on and did actually bag a goal against Wolves, which is what counts. However, will he score consistently from now until the end of the season to win games for Liverpool that otherwise they'd keep drawing? 

I don't think so.

Who would have thought however, that recently, their most important player would be Craig Bellamy? A brilliant free transfer attained by Dalglish, the Welshman is fast, skilful and has an eye for goal. Bellamy is no stranger to pressure either, and has come up for the Reds when they've called upon him to, however, like most of their squad, he simply doesn't have the goals in him to take the team all the way.

Another key component to Liverpool's goal-scoring threat has recently finished an eight-match ban and received game-time against Spurs on Monday, Luis Suarez.

The Uruguayan has been on hot form all season: his high work-rate, off the ball movement, trickery and eye for the goal have been unstoppable against any team, although, not the wood work however.

For whatever reason Suarez has time and time again failed to finish clear goal-scoring chances, more often than not, they either hit the wood work or on some occasions, just simply go wide. For all the good he does to the team, he is not a natural goal-scorer in the sense that his fellow countryman Edison Cavani is.

Liverpool will run the race for the four very closely, but they don't have the fire-power needed and while they have the easiest run of fixtures out of all four of the final clubs, it's been the points against the so called lesser sides that they have been dropping.