NFL Free Agents 2012: Determining Where the Top Defenders Will Land

Now that the 2011 NFL season is officially over and done with, it's time to shift our focus towards the impending free agency signing period coming up in just over a month's time. In this slideshow, I'll be focusing on the top defenders in this year's free agency class.

For NFL front offices, the time between now and then will be spent evaluating the players on their current rosters that are going to become free agents and determining which ones they will attempt to re-sign before March 13, the official start of free agency in 2012.

There are some elite players in this category this year. Mario Williams, London Fletcher, Dashon Goldson and Carlos Rogers are just a few of the big-name players that are without a contract at the present moment, and where they land will have a major impact on the landscape of the league and the 2012 NFL draft.

So, where will they end up?

Brandon Carr, Cornerback

Destination: Kansas City Chiefs

Brandon Carr isn't going anywhere. The Chiefs have already come out and identified him, along with wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, as the team's first priorities to re-sign.

Carr is a solid option for any team in need of secondary help, and I'm sure the Chiefs will have to give him an offer upwards of $5 million to $7 million per year to retain his services. Thankfully for them, they have plenty of cap room with which to make the deal.

The combination of Carr, Brandon Flowers and safety Eric Berry will be fun to watch in 2012, provided they can all stay healthy.

Cortland Finnegan, Cornerback

Destination: Detroit Lions

Cortland Finnegan is a diminutive, scrappy, versatile player that is best known for getting his butt kicked in a fight with Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson. Most fans would tell you that they absolutely hate the guy, but I guarantee they would love to have him on their favorite team.

Finnegan has come out and said that he doesn't expect the Tennessee Titans to re-sign him, and that fact alone makes me think his time is done there. The only way he'll suit up in a Titans uniform in 2012 is if the they franchise him, in my opinion.

That leaves the door wide open for the Detroit Lions to get some help for their much-maligned secondary unit that was decimated in the playoffs by the New Orleans Saints. My guess is that they can sign him for around $3 million to $5 million per year, since his interception numbers have declined over the last couple of years.

Brent Grimes, Cornerback

Destination: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really don't know what to make of Brent Grimes for 2012. There are conflicting reports out about whether the Atlanta Falcons will try and re-sign him.

The first reports talked about how "some inside the organization were very surprised, and disappointed" by Grimes' decision to sit out of the team's wild-card game against the New York Giants with a sore knee. 

Then, only five days after the initial report, new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan seemed to hint that the team might try and retain Grimes due to the fact that secondary play will be emphasized in Nolan's defense.

The latest news out about Grimes is that he is looking to score the same kind of long-term deal that the Falcons gave to Dunta Robinson (six-years, $57 million).

He might be worth it, but Grimes' production slipped big-time in 2011 after having two fantastic years in 2009 and 2010. I don't think the Falcons will be willing to pay him that kind of cash, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will.

The Bucs have the cap space to make a big deal happen, and they could certainly use the help.

Carlos Rogers, Cornerback

Destination: San Francisco 49ers

I don't see Carlos Rogers sporting a different jersey in 2012 than he did in 2011. The 49ers will make sure they don't lose him, and it shouldn't be too tough because both sides have already publicly said that they intend to make it happen.

Rogers even went so far as to say that he'd be willing to take a team discount to stay. That is about as sure a sign as you can get in the NFL, and I will be absolutely floored if this deal doesn't happen before March 13.

My best guess for the amount Rogers will end up signing for is around $7 million to $9 million per year. He won't get the kind of contract that Darrelle Revis or Nnamdi Asomugha demand, but he'll still be paid like a top-flight defender.

Dashon Goldson, Free Safety

Destination: San Francisco 49ers

Dashon Goldson won't get a chance to hit free agency markets in 2012. No way. 

According to Comcast Sportsnet Bay Area, the 49ers will either re-sign Goldson to a long-term deal worth about $5 million to $6 million per year or they will hit him with the franchise tag, which will reportedly be around $6.2 million.

Goldson was one of the best at his position in the NFL in 2011, and his opportunistic, ball-hawking style of play complements Donte Whitner, the 49ers starting strong safety, to perfection.

Michael Griffin, Free Safety

Destination: Dallas Cowboys

Michael Griffin tweeted before the Titans' final game of the regular season that he was playing his last game in Tennessee, so I guess we know how he feels about that.

Griffin can be one of the most electric playmakers at the free safety position in the league at times, and the Cowboys are desperate for some help in their secondary. He is inconsistent, though, and that inconsistency might allow for a cheaper contract for his services.

Still, Griffin would provide a much-needed boost to Rob Ryan's defense, and my guess is that Griffin would get even bettter within Ryan's system.

His range and speed would really allow Ryan to use him in a multitude of ways, creating confusion for opposing offenses. He is a willing and able blitzer, which also fits in perfectly with what the Cowboys like to do on defense.

Don't expect Griffin to haul in a Eric Weddle type contract, though. He's not in that class. 

I expect Griffin to be signed to a three-to-four year deal worth around $5 million per year.

Curtis Lofton, Middle Linebacker

Destination: Atlanta Falcons

Curtis Lofton, at age 25, is one of the best young middle linebackers in the NFL. He has already accrued four years of starting experience, and he just keeps getting better. 

The Falcons are going to have to break open the piggy bank to keep Lofton. There are going to be at least a few teams interested in stealing him away from the Falcons, and they won't be shy about their contract proposals.

I just can't see the Falcons allowing him to leave, though. He was the leader of their defense since the day he was brought in four years ago, and they won't be content to start over again from scratch.

Don't be surprised to see Lofton earn a contract similar to the one Jon Beason was awarded last year (six years, $51.34 million).

He's worth every penny.

London Fletcher, Middle Linebacker

Destination: Washington Redskins

How cool was it to finally see London Fletcher finally play in a Pro Bowl?

Fletcher has been cracking skulls for a living in the NFL for 14 years now, and he's not looking to slow down any time soon. 

The soon to be 37-year-old middle linebacker has already said he's interested in staying in Washington for his sixth season with the Redskins, and the Redskins reportedly would like to have him back.

My best guess for Fletcher's salary next year is that it will likely resemble the three-year, $9 million contract Takeo Spikes received from the San Diego Chargers, but I'm guessing Fletcher's will only be for two years.

The biggest question I have about Fletcher is this: How much longer can the man continue to play at an elite level?

Stephen Tulloch, Middle Linebacker

Destination: Detroit Lions

Stephen Tulloch is a solid middle linebacker that can shed and tackle, something that isn't exactly a strong suit with many teams.

He will be hotly pursued by teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are desperate for help at the middle linebacker position, but in the end I believe he'll stick around in Detroit to see how good the Lions can become in the next few years.

Tulloch's price tag shouldn't be too exorbitant, as he isn't exactly Patrick Willis, and I would expect the Lions to be able to hold onto him for around $3 million per year.

This is manageable for the Lions, who would be in big trouble if they ended up losing Tulloch to another team in free agency.

Mario Williams, Outside Linebacker/Defensive End

Destination: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are switching from a 3-4 defense to a conventional 4-3, something Mario Williams is familiar with. 

SI.com's Peter King has said that he thinks the Houston Texans will allow Williams to hit the open market in March, and he will be the hottest commodity of 2012.

I expect him to be courted very much in the same way Julius Peppers was courted by the Chicago Bears a couple of years ago, and his salary should be in the same ballpark, too (six-year $84 million).

The Dolphins would need to do some fancy bookkeeping to make this deal work due to their current salary cap situation, but somehow I think they'd be willing to make a couple of sacrifices to land a player of Williams' caliber.

Robert Mathis, Defensive End

Destination: Cleveland Browns

The more time that passes since Jim Irsay got rid of Jim Caldwell and Jim Polian, the more it seems like he is just going to completely retool his team and get younger all the way around. 

This makes keeping Robert Mathis seem highly unlikely.

The Cleveland Browns need someone to come in and play opposite of Jabaal Sheard, the promising young man who will be going into his second year in 2012. Sheard was fantastic as a rookie, but teams were able to easily shift help to his side due to the fact that the Browns didn't have another threat to rush the passer.

Picking up Mathis would instantly solve their problems, and it would also give Sheard and the rest of the young defense a man to look up to for guidance and leadership.

I'm guessing we'll see Mathis earn a contract somewhere in the range of $6 million to $8 million per year.

Calais Campbell, Defensive End

Destination: Arizona Cardinals

Calais Campbell is the top 3-4 defensive end in free agency for 2012. He had a fantastic year in 2011, registering 72 tackles, 8.5 sacks, one interception and two forced fumbles.

If you don't know, that is a seriously impressive season for a man at his position.

As a comparison, I submit to you Justin Smith. Smith is highly regarded as the best 3-4 defensive end in the NFL. His stats in 2011? 58 tackles, 7.5 sacks and three forced fumbles.

The Cardinals can't afford not to pay Campbell. If he goes to another team, they will have their hands full trying to fill the void. He was the catalyst for their defensive surge towards the end of the year. 

The price tag won't be easy to stomach, though, and the Cards are in trouble with cap space so it should be interesting to see what they do to retain him. He could go for upwards of $8 million to $9 million per year.

John Abraham, Defensive End

Destination: New Orleans Saints

The Atlanta Falcons limited John Abraham's snaps during the regular season to keep him rested up and healthy for the playoff run. Unfortunately for them and for Abraham, he was unable to do enough against the New York Giants to make a difference. Yes, he had one sack, but he was largely ineffective in the wild-card round.

The Falcons won't be interested in keeping Abraham, as I predict that they will try to get younger at that position.

I can see the Saints picking him up for a pretty reasonable deal, somewhere in the range of $2 million to $3 million per year on a two-year deal. Abraham could give them some solid situational pass-rushing, something they were awful at in 2011. 

Jim Spagnuolo is the new defensive coordinator for the Saints, and he will get them back to playing a defense that doesn't rely so heavily on blitzing for pressure. Abraham would be a good tool to plug into that system.

Antonio Garay, Nose Tackle

Destination: Houston Texans

Antonio Garay is far and away the best nose tackle in free agency. He will be hotly pursued by a few teams, namely the San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans.

He's going to want to go to a winner, and right now the most attractive option for a man of his abilities would be Houston. 

Wade Phillips put together one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2011 without the benefit of having a true nose tackle to pull it all together. Plug in Garay, and they instantly become the stoutest front seven in the NFL, slightly edging the San Francisco 49ers.

I'm expecting Garay to sign a multi-year deal worth roughly $5 million per year.