NCAA Basketball: Bubble Watch Part I 2/6

Do you feel it folks? It's officially College Basketball season. 

Now that football has officially ended, and the NBA still has three months before it gets into its playoff push, February and March belong to college hoops.

In my opinion, the most intriguing part of the College Basketball season is accessing what the NCAA Tournament field will look like when it is all said and done on Selection Sunday.

There are two main parts to that; one is figuring out which seed and regions the teams will be in, the other is predicting how the bubble will turn out and which teams will be in and out.

As the tournament gets close, I will start looking at the first part of that, for now though, it is time to start really examining the tournament bubble for the first time this season.

Here is how the bubble is shaking out right now, keep in mind this will all change come tournament time, but this is a first look at where teams stand in early February. 

Conference Leaders

I will be doing these bubble examinations weekly or bi-weekly (more often when it gets closer)  from here on out until the NCAA Tournament. 

To make it easier, we will assume each team who is currently leading its conference will be the automatic representative for that conference in the tournament. Obviously, not all of these will turn out to be the case, and some that lose will take bids away from possible bubble teams. 

Note-If there is currently a tie for first, we will simply use which teams has the better overall record. 

Nevertheless here is what the automatic bids if the tournament started today.

America East- Stony Brook

Atlantic 10- Temple

ACC- North Carolina

Atlantic 10- Mercer

Big 12- Missouri

Big East- Syracuse

Big Sky- Weber State

Big South- UNC Asheville 

Big Ten- Ohio State

Big West- Long Beach State

CAA- Virginia Commonwealth

Conference USA- Southern Miss.

Horizon League- Cleveland State

Ivy League- Harvard

MAAC- Iona

MAC- Akron

MEAC- Norfolk State

MVC- Creighton

Mountain West- San Diego State

NEC- LIU Brooklyn

OVC- Murray State

Pac 12- Washington

Patriot- Bucknell

SEC- Kentucky

Southern- Davidson

Southland- Texas-Arlington

SWAC- Mississippi Valley State

Summit- Oral Roberts

Sun Belt- Middle Tennessee State

WCC- Saint Mary's

WAC- Nevada

Teams in Good Shape

This category will be reserved for those teams who, may not be leading their conference but look close to being locks in this years tournament.

Sure it is conceivable that some of these teams could miss the tournament, but it is likely they will not. If they start playing themselves down to the bubble, we will include them there, but for now this is where they will be kept.

Duke (ACC) 

Florida State (ACC) 

Virginia (ACC) 

Marquette (Big East) 

Georgetown (Big East) 

Louisville (Big East) 

Michigan State (Big Ten)

Michigan (Big Ten) 

Indiana (Big Ten)

Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Baylor (Big 12)

Kansas (Big 12)

Florida (SEC)

Vanderbilt (SEC)

Mississippi State (SEC) 

UNLV (Mountain West)

Gonzaga (WCC)

Wichita State (MVC)

What's Left?

For the record, I was never much of a math guy (by that I mean I'm terrible at math), but hopefully I calculated correctly.

The 31 conference champions, (Great West not withstanding since it has no auto bid yet) plus the 18 teams currently in good shape, brings us to a total of 49. 

Since there are 68 total tournament bids, that leaves us with 19 current spots for bubble teams. 

 If your teams isn't currently on the list, don't fret, it is still February. As long as they keep winning, you'll be seeing them soon enough.

We will go about the teams in alphabetical order by conference (the A-10 teams up first), and the teams will be accessed on whether they are in or out right now, and how the bottom line shakes out about where they stand right now.

Without further ado, here is my first bubble examination of the season. 

Saint Louis 18-5 (6-3)

RPI: 34

SOS: 89

St. Louis did what it had to do and picked up a home win against fellow bubble team Dayton yesterday to reaffirm its at large aspirations and avoid a season sweep on the year by the Flyers.

St. Louis has wins over Washington, Oklahoma and Xavier, but that's really all it have to hang its hat on. The good news is it doesn't have any real ugly losses and its RPI is still a manageable Top 40.

The bad news is, other than a road game versus Xavier, there are really no games remaining on its schedule that they can really afford to lose if they are going to feel safe.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: In decent shape, but lots of work to do.

Xavier 15-8 (6-3)

RPI: 54

SOS: 44

The Musketeers are one of the most interesting teams in the nation as they went from a Top 10 squad, to falling into complete free-fall and are now hovering somewhere in between. Unfortunately for them, they have been leaning more toward the latter in recent weeks.

Xavier lost to Memphis yesterday in its final nonconference contest and it really could have used that win. It doesn't have any big wins in conference and that losing streak in December really brought on some terrible losses, including a double OT stinker against Hawaii.

Still, though the Musketeers have plenty of nice wins from early in the season including Vanderbilt, Purdue and Cincinnati, which keeps them in for now, but they are walking on eggshells.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: In trouble

Massachusetts 17-6 (6-3)

RPI: 67

SOS: 143

Amongst the logjam of teams tied for second behind Temple for the conference lead in the A-10 is the Minutemen of UMass who are quietly putting together a very solid season.

However, it is hard to get past the ugly computer numbers right now. There is a reason SOS is 143. It's because UMass didn't really challenge itself in the nonconference. Its best wins overall came over Davidson and Saint Louis, which aren't going to turn any heads in the committee.

Still, the Minutemen's solid A-10 play has deserved them a look, which may become a much more closer win if they keep up their winning ways.

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: On the upswing 

Dayton 14-9 (4-5)

RPI: 67

SOS: 23

What was once a very real possibility for Dayton to qualify for the NCAA Tournament now seems like a much more long distant one after its four game losing streak in the conference. 

Dayton was sitting pretty with wins over Saints Louis,  Xavier and Temple in the Atlantic 10 and Minnesota and Alabama in the nonconference. 

However, Dayton has since fallen to St. Joe's, Rhode Island (RHODE ISLAND!), Duquense, and Saint Louis to fall almost out of the bubble picture.

Fortunately, those wins haven't gone anywhere, but right now Dayton simply has too many losses to be considered for the tournament. 

Only its solid SOS has them even on the watch. The good news for Dayton is they had its losing streak early enough where it still has a slim chance of making up for it. But it needs to start now.

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: In deep trouble

Miami (FL) 14-7 (5-3)

RPI: 37

SOS: 33

Just like that, the Miami Hurricanes got exactly what they needed.  Coming into the day, they were really hanging out on the bubble, but after beating Duke at Cameron, they got the marquee win their resume was so desperately lacking.

Miami had not won a game this season against an RPI Top 50 team before Sunday, but that road win will really take them far. Things are looking good in South Beach.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: Surging 

North Carolina State 17-7 (6-3)

RPI: 58

SOS: 54

The Wolfpack are an intriguing bubble team because while they have very few high quality wins, none of their losses (except Georgia Tech) are bad ones.

The Wolfpack are beating who are they are supposed to in the ACC, but their best win right now is Miami, which really won't get it done come Tournament time.

The good news for Mark Gottfried's team is that they will have some more chances before that arrives. NC State plays Duke, Florida State, and UNC all in a row from Feb. 16 through the 21st.  More likely than not, that three game stretch will decide their season.

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: Steady 

Iowa State 17-6 (7-3)

RPI: 35

SOS: 58

If Iowa State is even on the bubble anymore, it's only barely. The Cyclones have followed up their massive upset last Saturday over Kansas with two huge wins over fellow bubble teams Kansas State and Oklahoma.

This has now bumped their RPI all the way up to 35, and it gives their resume that extra bump they really needed going into conference play.

They are still one or two wins away from being in the "good shape" category, but Iowa State is in a better position than almost any other bubble team at this point in the season.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: Surging 

Kansas State 16-6 (5-5)

RPI: 50

SOS: 74

Things are still looking up for Frank Martin's Kansas State squad, but he really should start working on figuring out how to beat Lon Kruger. 

Kansas State most likely would be in the good shape category had it not lost twice to Kruger's Oklahoma squad already this season, which is extremely puzzling as it is.

Still though, K-State has wins over Long Beach State, Alabama and Missouri, which should be enough to push it through. 

K-State did well not to enter into a three game losing streak by beating Texas A&M yesterday to get back to even in the Big 12. It would be highly recommended to beat Texas Tech and Texas coming up as well, because after that, they will face three Top 10 teams, Kansas, Baylor and Missouri back to back to back.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: In decent shape, but lots of work to do.

Texas 14-9 (4-6)

RPI: 66

SOS: 18

The biggest problem for Texas this season isn't the quality of its play, or its computer numbers. It is simply the number of losses. 

That number (nine) is going to be very tough to overcome, especially considering six of them have come in the Big 12. 

Texas could have won @Kansas State, vs. Kansas, @Baylor, and vs. Missouri (none of those losses came by more than five points).

Unfortunately for Rick Barnes, Texas lost all of them. And it may very well cost the Longhorns a spot in the dance unless they turn it around big time in the last half of their Big 12 schedule. 

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: Fading fast

Notre Dame 15-8 (7-3)

RPI: 55

SOS: 34

If one wanted to argue against Iowa State being in the best spot of any bubble team, they could very much argue it is instead the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is one of the hottest teams in the nation and have followed up its upset over Syracuse with three more wins over Seton Hall, UConn and Marquette.

A resume which once seemed thin is now overflowing with quality Big East wins. Notre Dame does have eight losses, which is a lot, but none of them have been truly awful.

The only thing keeping it out of the good shape category is its sub 50 RPI, but look for that number to increase if Notre Dame can pick up a road win over West Virginia on Wednesday.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: Surging 

Cincinnati 16-7 (6-4)

RPI: 96

SOS: 130

Whoa. That is the reaction I got when I first saw Cincy's ugly and I mean ugly computer numbers. It's cases like this that make many college basketball analysts really want to get rid of the RPI. 

There is no way Cincinnati is only the 96th best team in the country (just like Colorado State is not the 21st..but we'll get to that later), but that is what the RPI states, and they are going to be punished for it.

It is true though, that the Bearcats do not have a ton of meat on their resume. Their best wins have come over Oklahoma, Notre Dame, UConn and Georgetown, which are not bad but won't jump off the page at anyone.

The real problem is that their nonconference SOS is atrocious. Not to mention they have losses to Rutgers, St. John's and Presbyterian.  Right now, I still have them in, since there hasn't been a ton of other bubble teams showing up, but they sure are sweating.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: On the fringe  

West Virginia 16-8 (6-5)

RPI: 24

SOS: 6

When West Virginia played Cincinnati on Jan. 21, the game went to overtime before eventually being won by the Mountaineers. Both teams have six wins in the Big East and for all logical fans, they seem to be two very evenly matched teams.

In the committee's eyes, however, they will be nowhere close. While the Bearcats will get punished by their lagging computer numbers, Bob Huggin's squad will be only rewarded. 

The numbers really speak for themselves. 24 and 6. The numbers of West Virginia's RPI and SOS. No team with those numbers is missing the NCAA Tournament. If West Virginia hadn't avoided complete disaster by beating Providence today, we might be having a different conversation. Fortunately for its sake, it got out of Rhode Island with a win.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: In good shape 

Connecticut 15-7 (5-5)

RPI: 22

SOS: 3

Not many at the beginning of the year would have pegged the defending national champions as being on the bubble come early February, but that is exactly where they are.

Fortunately for them, they have a very similar situation to West Virginia where those numbers are just too good to keep them out of the Big Dance, at least for now.

I wouldn't suggest to the Huskies to go on too many more four game losing streaks though, the blowout win over Seton Hall was a big step forward. 

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: In good shape 

Seton Hall 15-8 (4-7)

RPI: 31

SOS: 12

At first, its 4-7 conference record had me not wanting to even include Seton Hall on the Bubble, but its computer numbers are enough to at least warrant a look.

Upon further examination however, The Pirates resume leaves a lot to be desired. The wins (VCU, St. Joe's, Dayton, West Virginia, UConn) are nice, but the six game losing streak, is very, very ugly. Those wins are not enough to make up for a 4-7 Big East record. The numbers are keeping them afloat for now, barely. A loss to Rutgers on Wednesday will officially sink them. 

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: Fading fast 

Illinois 16-7 (5-5)

RPI: 39

SOS: 20

The bad news for Illinois is that it has lost four out of its last five games to drop to .500 in conference play since upsetting Ohio State on Jan. 10.

The good news? That one win came over a Top 15 team, Michigan State. That win adds a little bit of cushion to the Illini resume, which now includes wins over Ohio State, Michigan State and Gonzaga.

Illinois needs to figure its game out offensively, but right now it is still in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: In decent shape, but lots of work to do.

Purdue 15-8 (5-5)

RPI: 61

SOS: 45

Purdue is one of those teams that are really squarely on the bubble at this point in the season. It has a few nice wins, Temple, Miami and Illinois, but it also has plenty of missed opportunities including last night against Indiana. 

Now the Boilermakers sit at 5-5 in the conference, which is enough to just squeak them in, but they would help themselves out a lot if they were able to knock out Ohio State.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady 

Minnesota 17-7 (5-6)

RPI: 48

SOS: 63

Minnesota just cannot catch a break. First off, The Golden Gophers lost their best player Trevor Mbakwe to a season-ending injury in late November. Minnesota also managed wins over DePaul, Virginia Tech and USC in the nonconference, which you could have hoped at one point would help build its resume. Instead, all three of teams have struggled immensely, and the wins carry little to no weight.

Then, Minnesota managed an upset win on the road against number eight Indiana, which was supposed to be their marquee victory. While it remains their best win, Indiana has since fallen below .500 in Big Ten play so the win is not nearly enough to hang their hat on.

So as it stands Minnesota is probably on the outside looking in, so they will need to knock off Ohio State or Wisconsin this week to get back in the conversation.

In right now?: No

Assessment: In trouble 

George Mason 19-6 (11-2)

RPI: 104

SOS: 268

The CAA feels like a two bid league. VCU and George Mason have made final fours in the past five seasons, and those two teams along with Drexel and Old Dominion all seem capable of winning a game in the NCAA Tournament this year.

However, the Colonials have a long way to go if they are going to secure an at large bid. The record is nice, the numbers aren't. 

The best nonconference win is what? Bucknell? Ouch. However, if Mason wins out in the conference it may be difficult for the committee to leave a 17-2 team out of that conference out of the tournament.

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: On the rise

Drexel 19-5 (11-2)

RPI: 92

SOS: 275

Bruiser Flint's Dragons were one of my mid-major teams to watch in the preseason and after a 2-4 start, it looked as if Drexel was going to be one of the nations biggest disappointments.

Since that point though, Drexel is 17-1 including wins in conference over VCU and George Mason. The problem is, very much like George Mason, it has very few nonconference wins to go on. However, right now it beat out its conference foes for the final spot in my mind.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: Surging 

Memphis 16-7 (6-2)

RPI: 20

SOS: 8

Memphis is a preseason Top 10 team who has really failed to meet expectations to this point in the season. The good news though is that thanks to its gaudy computer numbers, it still more likely than not will see the NCAA Tournament. 

Memphis got a much needed win over Xavier on Saturday to ensure it avoided two consecutive losses to fellow bubble teams after falling to Southern Miss. 

The Tigers don't have a ton of great wins but they have literally no bad losses, which keeps them on the right side of the bubble.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: In decent shape, but lots of work to do.

Central Florida 17-6 (6-3)

RPI: 63

SOS: 112

Wins over Connecticut and Memphis are keeping UCF in the bubble mix here in early February. 

However, with a lack of real quality wins besides that, and average computer numbers, the Knights probably need to beat Marshall and USM this upcoming week to stay in the bubble picture. 

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: Fading fast 

New Mexico 19-4 (5-2)

RPI: 42

SOS: 115

Like I mentioned, I'm not mathematician, but when a conference of eight has five of it's eight teams in contention for the NCAA Tournament, I know that's a pretty darn good percentage. 

One of those five for the Mountain West is New Mexico which sports a nifty 19-4 record. The Lobos produced some OK wins over major conference teams in the nonconference but nothing good enough to bump them off of the bubble. Their best win is probably St. Louis, and they failed in their first two meetings this year against the conferences top teams, UNLV and San Diego State.

Still, they are in a good position right now. The MWC is going to get more than two teams when it's all said and done, and New Mexico is a solid No. 3 right now. 

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady

Colorado State 15-7 (4-3)

RPI: 21

SOS: 9

That is not a typo. The Colorado State Rams really do have the 21st best RPI ranking in the country. Now in no realm of the universe is Colorado State a Top 20 team, but they quietly had one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the nation, which has led them to such a ranking.

We could have a whole different argument on why the RPI is fatally flawed if it is putting Colorado State in the Top 20 of the RPI, but the fact is the committee really looks at that as a major criteria and right now the Rams have all the numbers in their favor.

What they don't have though, is wins. While Colorado State challenged itself several time in the nonconference, its best win was Colorado. However, the Rams did manage a win over San Diego State so far in conference play.

In the end, Colorado State will be a prime example of just how much in 2012, the committee relies on the RPI as a measure for a team's worthiness.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: On the fringe

Wyoming 18-5 (4-3)

RPI: 73

SOS: 140

The Cowboys get on this list because of their impressive home win against UNLV on Saturday. Like Colorado State, they also beat Colorado in the nonconference and have one win over the conference's big two teams. 

Unlike Colorado State however, Wyoming does not have the numbers on its side, which leaves it on the outside right now. Beat New Mexico on Saturday though? They are a lot closer. 

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: On the rise 

California 18-6 (8-3)

RPI: 46

SOS: 85

To say the Pac 12 is down this year is a bit of an understatement. The fact of the matter is that none of its 12 teams are locks to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Although unlikely, it is possible that it could be a one bid league which is unheard of for a major conference.

Although Cal may be on of the conference's better teams, its resume is severely lacking. The Golden Bears best nonconference win is Weber State, which is not a win that screams NCAA Tournament.

Cal's best bet is to keep winning games in conference to make up for it, which it is doing. I can't see the Pac 12 being a one big league at the end of the day, so right now I'll give the nod to Cal.

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: In trouble 

Colorado 16-7 (8-3)

RPI: 70

SOS: 78

The Buffaloes are an impressive 8-3 in the league, but there isn't really enough on their resume right now to warrant an at large spot.

Still though, they are certainly on the rise in the Pac 12, especially after knocking off Oregon yesterday. Unfortunately, since all of the Pac 12 teams are relatively mediocre, picking up wins in the conference won't put boost them up that much, so they really need to rely on out of conference performance.

Colorado didn't have a great one, with very few nice wins. Still, Colorado is in just as good of position as any Pac 12 team to sneak in the Big Dance.

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: On the rise 

Oregon 16-7 (7-4)

RPI: 82

SOS: 110

While there are several Pac 12 teams on the bubble, none of them really seem to be in prime position to get a spot, and that includes the Ducks.

Oregon has a decent conference record but few to little nonconference wins to brag about.  Oregon would help itself out a lot if it was able to knock off Washington on Thursday. 

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: Fading 

Arizona 16-8 (7-4)

RPI: 64

SOS: 64

At the very least, the Wildcats have done what many Pac 12 teams didn't, challenged themselves in the nonconference. 

They played Mississippi State, Florida, San Diego State and Gonzaga, but unfortunately for them, lost all four. 

However, with two straight wins over Cal and Stanford, Arizona is at the very least in the conversation.

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: On the rise 

Stanford 16-7 (6-5)

RPI: 96

SOS: 138

Stanford owns the Pac 12's only win over an RPI Top 50 team (vs. Colorado State), which is basically the only thing that keeps it hanging on to a bubble position.

The Cardinal probably came the closest of anyone in the nonconference at beating Syracuse, which would have been monumental. Unfortunately for them, they fell short, and so will there tournament hopes if things don't change quickly.

In right now?: No

Bottom Line: In deep trouble 

Arkansas 16-7 (4-4)

RPI: 53

SOS: 62

The loss to Houston will hurt them, but the Razorbacks did manage to pick up a real quality nonconference win late in the season when they held on to beat Michigan at home. 

They also have knocked off Mississippi State and Vandy in conference which makes me much more optimistic about their chances then many other bubble watchers.  Those computer numbers really aren't bad, and the SEC is a quality league.  They should win their next three games before facing off against Florida on the 18th.

In right now: Yes

Bottom Line: On the rise

Alabama 15-7 (4-4)

RPI: 32

SOS: 16

Now that it has snapped out of its losing streak, Alabama is right back on top of the bubble scene.

Since losing four straight, it knocked off Arkansas and Ole Miss in Double OT to push its conference record back up to a respectable 4-4.

The Crimson Tide did this year what they failed to do last year, challenge themselves in the nonconference. The wins over Wichita State, Purdue and VCU are ringing very nicely right about now, and their solid numbers are enough to keep them in very good shape. 

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: Steady

Brigham Young 20-6 (8-3)

RPI: 43

SOS: 76

Beating Gonzaga really helps out the Cougars at this point in the season.  Before it, they were lacking any serious quality wins with the best at that point being Nevada. Now after it, it is entirely possibly the WCC could be a three bid league.

The only problem for BYU is that there is little to no room for error from here on out in the regular season, which includes another meeting with the Zags on Feb. 23, this time in Spokane. 

In right now?: Yes

Bottom Line: On the rise