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Super Bowl Over Under: Why Year's Biggest Game Won't Be a Shootout

Tim KeeneyJun 6, 2018

Tom "Freaking" Brady. Eli "Silly Face" Manning. Both quarterbacks are having stellar seasons and both lead explosive, almost unstoppable offenses. There's no way this Super Bowl doesn't turn into a shootout, right?

Right?

Well the oddsmakers at Bovada seem to agree, as they've set the over/under for Sunday's kind-of-big game at 54. So, a 30-24 or 33-21 game or something like that. Not necessarily a shootout, but a high-scoring game nonetheless. 

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I've got a secret for you bettor-types out there: This one won't reach 50.

Sure, the Patriots and Giants have combined to score over 58 points per game this season, and the defenses have combined to give up close to 45 points and about a million yards per game, but that means nothing.

This game is going to turn into a low-scoring battle because of the lines, both offensive and defensive.

When the Patriots have the ball

Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski (kind of). That's a passing game that is extremely tough to stop, no matter who lines up on the defensive side of the ball.

What's more, Bill Belichick will have a hard time handing the ball to BenJarvus Green-Ellis, aka the Law Firm, so Brady could sling it close to 40 times.

But throwing from your back can often be a tough thing to do. During the regular season, the Giants averaged 3.0 sacks per game, and with a healthy Osi Umenyiora opposite Jason Pierre-Paul, they have been even more dominate in the playoffs. 

Brady might drop back a lot, and as a result rack up the yards, but the pressure will eventually get to him and cause a turnover or two.

When the Giants have the ball

According to Pro Football Focus, the Giants' offensive line graded dead last in the NFL against pass rush this year. 

I'm pretty sure that's not good. 

The Patriots D-line doesn't quite get the attention of New York's, and rightfully so, but they managed to average 2.7 sacks per game on the season.

They can get pressure, especially against this offensive line. 

Eli struggled against the San Francisco 49ers when they got a lot of pressure, and it could happen again, even against New England's porous pass defense.

I hope everyone has their sack dance ready, because there's going to be a lot of them on Sunday!

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