Super Bowl Predictions 2012: Expect Another Close Classic for NFL Title

Take a quick glance through the list of Super Bowl scores, and you'll probably notice a trend emerging over the last decade or so.

The NFL has decided its champion in rather closely-contested fashion. Of the 10 game-tying-or-winning scores in the final two minutes of play in Super Bowls, seven have come since the turn of the most recent century.

Gone are the days when tremendous hype yielded little more than a 30- or 40-point blowout. Gone are the snoozers in which advertisements actually were more exciting than the bits of football played in between. 

But why the change?

Part of the shift may be due simply to a change in schedule. Super Bowl XXXVII, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blasted the Oakland Raiders in a 48-21 trouncing, marked the last time the title was decided by more than two touchdowns.

It was also the last Super Bowl to be staged just one week removed from Championship Sunday. Give coaches an extra week to rest up, study film and prepare for a single opponent, and the result is bound to more closely resemble a stalemate than a slaughter. Even the smallest weaknesses can be exploited and the most minimal advantages maximized with extensive analysis.

Of even greater import, though, is a more gradual change that the NFL has fostered over the long term—parity. Nearly every change the league has instituted over the past few decades has been geared toward leveling the playing field, either as the primary goal or as a byproduct of improved business practices and profitability.

As a result, rare is the occasion when the two best regular-season teams meet in the Super Bowl. The New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts broke the new mold two years ago, though the presence of Wild Card teams and/or division winners without the benefit of a bye has become surprisingly common. In fact, just two No. 1 seeds—the 2009 Saints and the 2003 Patriots—have won the Super Bowl in the last 10 years, compared to seven in the previous decade.

Meanwhile, the NFL has seen a three-seed, a five-seed and two six-seeds win the Super Bowl since 2002. The fourth-seeded New York Giants may well become just the latest non-top-two team to win the Super Bowl on Sunday.

In essence, what makes the NFL's regular season so exciting (especially for folks in Las Vegas) is precisely what makes the postseason such a topsy-turvy affair.

That is, unpredictability. The talent gap between most teams has narrowed so much, on account of salary cap restrictions and free agency, that teams almost regularly go from worst to first.

With those trends already in play, the excitement of Super Bowl XLVI will be bolstered further by the participation of two of the league's top quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Eli Manning. That is, the game is unlikely to get out of hand with two signal callers of such stellar experience and repute as Brady and Manning directing the action.

No deer in the headlights. No fear of failure. Just good, clean, poised football.

And, if nothing else, the fact that the Pats and Giants are so familiar with each other from their prior engagements will render Super Bowl XLVI that much more exciting from end to end, placing it among the pantheon of great Super Bowls since Y2K.

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