2012 NFL Free Agency: Ranking the Top 10 Players by Bust Potential

As much as scouts and pundits may be loathed to admit it, there's no such thing as a "can't miss" prospect in the talent selection processes of the NFL. Most of the time it is the failures from the college ranks who draw the most attention.

But free agency has seen plenty of players sign huge new contracts, only to flop spectacularly on their new teams. There are a variety of reasons why this can happen. Everything from poor scheme fits to a lack of effort once the big money comes rolling in, can turn that athlete once certain to save a franchise, into a poster boy for the dangers of over-spending.

This year's free-agent crop features a number of high-profile players who could fall victim to this cruel twist of fate and crush the hopes of some unlucky fanbase. Here is a list ranking the 10 free agents who are most likely to be labelled a bust, beginning with the lowest risk scenarios.

10. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

There is no denying that Ray Rice is an ultra-talented running back. But that doesn't mean that he completely escapes the dangers of being a free-agent bust.

Rice wants more money and he wants the ball. If the Ravens provide him with assurances that they are finally ready to make him the focal point of the offense, Rice will need to justify wanting more carries and deliver a monster year.

Rice is equally at risk if he signs a new deal with the Ravens and John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron still pursue their mission to win games on the strength of Joe Flacco's arm. For the kind of money it will likely take to keep Rice around, the 5'8", 212-pounder had better see more of the ball in 2012.

9. Sione Pouha, NT, New York Jets

Sione Pouha is an outstanding interior defensive lineman. But there is also no denying that his career has only really taken off under the tutelage of Rex Ryan and in the confines of his system.

Ryan's schemes are very specific, and his players succeed because of his knack for putting them in positions that maximise their best individual talents. Pouha has benefited from this and has become one of the most fearsome nose tackles in the game.

The 32-year-old may find it difficult to maintain his late-career bloom elsewhere. If Pouha stays in New York, the 6'3", 325-pounder could find his playing time reduced in favour of 2011 third-round draft choice Kenrick Ellis. The combination of age and strong competition for his place puts Pouha at risk of being a bust.

8. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Dwayne Bowe will be an appealing free-agent target for any team looking to add some explosion to their passing game. But potential suitors should be slightly wary of Bowe's often questionable temperament and struggles getting along with coaches.

The 6'2", 221-pound flanker clashed with former Kansas City Chiefs head coach Todd Haley on more than one occasion. Clashing with Haley doesn't exactly put Bowe in exclusive company, but it shows that the fifth-year pass-catcher is not the easiest star to deal with.

Of course finding a wide receiver who hasn't been labelled "temperamental" at one time or another is quite a challenge. But there is a danger that Bowe could end up like Brandon Marshall or even Terrell Owens—as talented as anybody when the mood strikes, but too much of a headache the rest of the time. 

7. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

It's a scary thought to think that arguably the league's finest all-round running back could be a free-agent bust. But Matt Forte's contract standoff with the Chicago Bears could lead to a down year for the dynamic 26-year-old.

Forte is anxious to receive a lucrative long-term extension from the Bears, and a possible holdout has even been semi-seriously mooted. The Bears have already stated their determination to prevent Forte from testing the market.

It seems that Forte and the Bears are already on a collision course concerning this future. The impact that this type of negotiating process can have on a player is difficult to predict.

The franchise tag can bring out the best or worst in an athlete. It can motivate the recipient into having such a strong season that the bumper new deal he seeks will be in no doubt the following year. But it can also create a sense of resentment in a player that proves to be the breaking point in his relationship with his team.

Another risk is that if Forte gets his hefty new contract ahead of next season, he could suddenly fail to produce the form that put him in the money in the first place. This wouldn't be the first time this has happened with a running back, with Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans springing to mind.

There is just too much uncertainty surrounding Forte heading into next season, and it keeps alive the slim possibility of him achieving bust status in 2012. 

6. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers

There seems to be no end to Vincent Jackson's problems in San Diego. But he has had so many issues with the Chargers that there is no guarantee he'll fare any better on another team.

Jackson has been at loggerheads with the Chargers over a new long-term contract extension for some time. Jackson has expressed a desire to stay, but Chargers management always seem reticent to meet his demands.

The two sides have waged war over franchise tags, holdouts and playing time. At this point, Jackson's unresolved future in San Diego is well and truly old news. After such a protracted saga, it wouldn't be a major surprise to see Jackson receive his coveted new deal and then experience another slump in form.

5. Kyle Orton, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

At 29 years old, journeyman passer Kyle Orton has bust written all over him as he enters the 2012 NFL free-agent market. The seven-year veteran could be seeking a starting job outside Kansas City, considering the eventual return from injury of regular Chiefs starter Matt Cassel.

Some teams could be tempted by Orton given the stellar numbers he produced in 2009 and 2010 as a member of the Denver Broncos. But Orton has struggled to lead his teams to an abundance of wins during his career and, despite the impressive stats, has often been found lacking in clutch situations.

This free-agency period could represent the last chance for Orton to stake his claim as a quality starter in this league. If he gets an opportunity, it will take a particularly special effort from Orton to keep himself in place for longer than usual.

4. Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders

Bulldozing runner Michael Bush is in a position to command decent money from the Oakland Raiders. Bush can leverage an impressive 2011 campaign into starter's money, either with the Raiders or another team.

The question is whether or not Bush is worth starter's money. Yes, he did a good job filling in for the injured Darren McFadden, finishing just 23 yards shy of 1,000, but is he dynamic enough to be a featured back?

A tough and durable runner, Bush can pound yards between the tackles as well as anybody. But he lacks the breakaway speed and big-play potential that elite backs can offer. The difference between Bush and McFadden is that if you need three yards, Bush will get you three yards every time. But McFadden could get you those three yards twice and then easily break one for 60 on his next carry.

Bush's efforts didn't get Oakland into the playoffs, and if the Raiders don't want to pay two back starters money, he could find it tough to boost the offense of another team.

3. LaRon Landry, S, Washington Redskins

LaRon Landry's long-standing injury woes, combined with a very specific but somewhat limited skill set, increases the potential of him being a free-agency bust in 2012. The hard-hitting, all-action safety continues to resist surgery to repair a nagging Achilles problem and has missed 15 games in the last two seasons.

Landry will have to do a lot to prove he can stay healthy long enough to be an impact player. If the Washington Redskins don't want to risk bringing him back, he could also find it hard to land on a team that will maximise what he does best.

The Redskins let Landry patrol the line of scrimmage and act almost as a hybrid linebacker. This role masks his deficiencies in coverage and lets Landry rely on his fierce tackling and good blitz instincts to make plays.

If he moves on from D.C., Landry might not be presented with a long list of teams who are so willing to limit their coverage schemes by taking him out of them so often. Any team interested in Landry should be aware of the major risks involved with a move for the five-year pro.

2. Cliff Avril, DE, Detroit Lions

If Cliff Avril decides to try and parlay an 11-sack season into a big-bucks move out of Detroit, it could very well end up being the biggest mistake of his career. While he is certainly a capable pass-rusher, there is no doubt that Avril benefits greatly from a strong supporting cast with the Lions.

Avril gets to play opposite stellar veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch, who certainly draws plenty of attention from opposing blocking schemes. Avril also gets to take advantage of the one-on-one matchups created by the Lions' young and talented tackle rotation.

These are luxuries most defensive ends in the league can only dream of. At this stage of his career, the 25-year-old is better off remaining in Detroit and continuing to refine his game amongst elite company. Avril would be taking a huge risk if he attempted to ply his trade elsewhere and would be a prime candidate for bust status.

1. Matt Flynn, QB, Green Bay Packers

It's difficult not to regard a player with only two pro starts to his name as the free agent with the most bust potential. Green Bay Packers deputy signal-caller Matt Flynn may be in high demand on the free-agent market, but that speaks more to how desperate teams are to find a franchise quarterback.

But those teams ought to proceed with caution. Flynn has put up hugely impressive stats in his two forays into starting action, but those figures were achieved in the specific and comfortable confines of the Packers' offensive system.

In all honesty, with weapons like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley to throw to, it would be hard for any pro-calibre passer not to look good directing Green Bay's attack. Without the same quality, prime targets to aim for, Flynn could be revealed as nothing more than a product of the system. That's the risk that Flynn and whichever team lands him will be taking.

Even if, as many anticipate, Flynn follows former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin to the Miami Dolphins, there's no guarantee that the four-year backup can make the leap to being an elite starter. Flynn could easily turn out to be the Kevin Kolb of 2012's free-agency class.