NASCAR Sprint Cup 2012: Odds on All Drivers Winning the Sprint Cup Title

Predicting who is going to win the NASCAR championship is not as hard as predicting who will win the championship in other sports.

Winning a NASCAR championship depends on the talent of the driver, the equipment of the team and the financial stability of the team. There are only about 15 drivers who fall into this category. Picking which one of those 15 drivers will win is the tricky part.

There are many different websites providing odds to win the NASCAR championship in 2012. Most of them have different drivers at the top of their list. I chose to use TheSpread.com for this article. I have noticed in the past that this website gives the odds consistent with other top betting sites.

So, who is going to win the championship in 2012? Here is a list of the drivers, their odds based upon TheSpread.com and my analysis of the odds.

Tony Stewart

5/1 Odds

Is there a rule that states the defending champion must have the best odds to win the championship the next season?

I agree that Tony Stewart is one of the best drivers in NASCAR, but he is also one of the streakiest drivers as well. Stewart got hot in the Chase last season and drove to his third championship. If anyone can win back-to-back championships, (other than Jimmie Johnson) it is Stewart.

In order to stay on top in NASCAR a team must not become complacent. Stewart Haas Racing made drastic moves following their championship season. Gone is crew chief Darian Grubb and in is new crew chief Steve Addington.

Stewart and Addington have a relationship from their time at Joe Gibbs Racing. It became obvious at the end of the 2011 season that Stewart’s goal was to assemble a team with his friends from his time spent at Joe Gibbs Racing. Along with Addington, Stewart’s former crew chief Greg Zipadelli joins Stewart Haas Racing. Zipadelli will serve as the Competition Director for Stewart Haas Racing.

The changes Stewart made at the end of the 2011 season might be what the team needs to stay on top in 2012. Stewart does need to be more consistent though, and have a strong spring, summer and fall. Getting hot at one time in the season might not be enough to win the championship.

Carl Edwards

5/1 Odds

Is Carl Edwards the best driver in NASCAR to not have won a championship? I think so.

Edwards shares the top spot in the odds-makers picks for the championship in 2012. Edwards has finished second in the points standings two times. I am sure Edwards must be getting sick of being the bridesmaid.

What kept Edwards from winning the championship last season was his inability to win multiple races. I think Edwards will gamble more in 2012 and try to win more races instead of being happy with top five finishes.

Since Edwards is so good at each of the different types of tracks on the NASCAR schedule, he is a lock to be one of the drivers competing for the championship. The question is: Will this be the year Edwards gets over the hump and finally wins the championship? I would not bet against it!

Kevin Harvick

6/1 Odds

Kevin Harvick’s 6/1 odds are surprising to me. Yes, Harvick is one of the best drivers in the sport and yes, he was competing for the championship for most of the 2011 season. But I cannot see Harvick having better odds than Jimmie Johnson.

The only change to Harvick’s No. 29 Richard Childress Racing team in 2012 is the addition of Shane Wilson as Harvick’s new crew chief. Wilson served as the crew chief of the No. 33 team (driven by Clint Bowyer) last season.

Harvick has had problems with his crew chiefs in the past. It will be interesting to see how his relationship with Wilson works out this season.

Harvick will make the Chase, but I would take other drivers ahead of him if I were to bet on a driver to win the championship.

Jimmie Johnson

7/1 Odds

So quickly we forget how dominate Jimmie Johnson was for five consecutive seasons. How is Johnson not the favorite to win the championship in 2012?

Johnson must have been disappointed last season to not be racing for the championship in the final races of the 2011 season. I bet he misses being on top of the sport and is anxious to get back.

During testing at Daytona in mid-January, Johnson took a different strategy than the other drivers. Johnson refused to get onto the track and mix it up with the competition. The No. 48 team worked on single-car runs and focused on what they could do to make their car better, instead of working so that NASCAR could figure out what rules need to be changed before the Great American Race.

The No. 48 team seems to be as motivated as I have ever seen them. If I was placing a bet for the winner of the Chase in 2012, my money would be on Johnson.

Brad Keselowski

10/1 Odds

The 2011 season was the year Brad Keselowski figured out how to be competitive in NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series. Now that he has figured out how to be competitive, the question is: Can Keselowski take a step forward and win a championship in 2012?

I think Keselowski will be near the top of the point standings in 2012, but when the Chase begins, Keselowski will be outmatched by the top teams in NASCAR.

I think having only two Dodges in NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series hurts Keselowski. When it comes down to the final races of the season when the Chevy and Ford teams are using their knowledge from four or five teams to ensure their car wins the championship, Keselowski will be relying on information from his own team and A.J. Allmendinger’s team to win the championship.

Keselowski will be a great driver in 2012, but he will not have the resources to win the championship.

Jeff Gordon

15/1 Odds

Jeff Gordon had a successful season in 2011, winning three races and landing in the top five of the point standings for most of the season.

Gordon will have to take a step forward in 2012 if he wants to win his fifth championship.

Gordon is another driver who is good on all types of tracks. Whenever the announcement is made, “Gentleman start your engines!” Gordon is one of the favorites to win the race.

The problem with Gordon is that he is coming to the end of his career. Gordon is still competitive enough to race at the top of the point standings, but I think his days of winning championships are over.

Kyle Busch

15/1 Odds

If you want a sleeper to win the championship, Kyle Busch is your man.

Busch is usually in the top three each season for the driver’s odds to win the championship. Busch ended his 2011 season with so much controversy that his odds to win the championship in 2012 dropped.

Busch is one of the best drivers in NASCAR. The problem is that he cannot get out of his own way. If Busch ever matures as a driver, he could put together multiple championship seasons. With all of the negativity surrounding him this year, Busch may be out to prove the critics wrong.

If I were betting on a championship driver, I would definitely put a few dollars down on the No. 18 team.

Denny Hamlin

20/1 Odds

What is wrong with Denny Hamlin? Last season he was one of the favorites to win the championship, but he ended up having one of the most disappointing seasons of any NASCAR driver.

If the problem was Hamlin’s crew chief in 2011, the problem may be solved in 2012. Hamlin’s crew chief from the 2011 season, Mike Ford, was released and Tony Stewart’s championship crew chief, Darian Grubb, was hired.

Grubb may be just what the No. 11 team needs in 2012. Grubb has been successful everywhere he has been in NASCAR. He led Jimmie Johnson to victory in the Daytona 500 and helped guide Stewart to his third NASCAR championship. It will be interesting to see what he can do for Hamlin.

Ryan Newman

20/1 Odds

Ryan Newman has made the Chase in two of his first three seasons at Stewart Haas Racing. While I do think Newman is a good driver and will have a good chance at making the Chase in 2012; I do not think he is a driver who will compete for the championship.

Kurt Busch

The biggest drop off from last year’s odds to win the championship to this season has to be Kurt Busch.

Busch and Penske Racing decided to go their separate ways following the 2011 season. Busch signed with Phoenix Racing and will be in inferior equipment in 2012. Busch’s No. 51 team will have engines supplied by Hendrick Motorsports in 2012, but that will not be enough to make the team compete for a championship.

Busch’s season will be a huge success if he manages to make the Chase. The season would be a miracle if he were to win the championship.

Kasey Kahne

20/1 Odds

Here is your second sleeper for a championship in 2012. Kasey Kahne moves from Red Bull Racing to Hendrick Motorsports. Kahne will be taking the place of Mark Martin in the No. 5 car.

Kahne has had success in NASCAR but he has never driven a car with Hendrick’s equipment. I think Kahne will be a real surprise this season. Kahne can drive a car and now he has the cars to compete with the big boys.

If I were to put money down on a sleeper in 2012, Kahne would be one of my favorites.

Clint Bowyer

20/1 Odds

Clint Bowyer decided to leave Richard Childress Racing and sign a contract to drive the No. 15 Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota. Financially that may be a wise move for Bowyer, but as far as winning races goes, I’m not so sure he made the right choice.

Bowyer will be competitive in the 2012 season, but not nearly as competitive as he needs to be in order to win the championship. I would not waste my money betting on Bowyer in 2012.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

20/1 Odds

If Dale Earnhardt Jr. were able to win the championship in 2012, who do you think would be happier: The millions of fans who love the Earnhardts or the people who received 20/1 odds on him winning the Chase?

I think his fans would be happier.

Earnhardt has shown instances of dominance in the sport, but never enough to compete for a championship. Last summer Earnhardt was one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR, but he soon faded away. I would love to see Earnhardt win a championship as much as anyone, but I do not think it will happen anytime soon.

Other Drivers

Jeff Burton 30/1 Odds

Greg Biffle 50/1 Odds

Paul Menard 80/1 Odds

Jamie McMurray 80/1 Odds

Martin Truex Jr. 80/1 Odds

Joey Logano 80/1 Odds

A.J. Allmendinger 80/1 Odds

J.P. Montoya 80/1 Odds

David Ragan 80/1 Odds

Mark Martin 80/1 Odds

Brian Vickers 80/1 Odds

This is a good group of drivers. Most of them will compete in some races in 2012, but none of them will compete for a championship. The only driver worth a gamble would be Greg Biffle, but he has to be the unluckiest driver in NASCAR. I would not waste my money on any drivers on this list.

The Rest of the Field Is 100/1 Odds or More

In other sports it is sometimes good to take the field. In NASCAR, I would not recommend it.

Too much depends on the equipment of the car and the money the team has backing them. With the new rules changes, specifically the change to the new electronic fuel injection car, the separation from the haves and have nots will continue to grow further apart.

While it would be nice to win a bet given 100/1 odds, I suggest you go buy a lottery ticket because I think your chances would be nearly the same.

Follow me on Twitter @HuskerMagic

If you are a fan of Fantasy NASCAR, please LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Facebook page at:

Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR Tips