2012 NFL Mock Draft: Quinton Coples and Biggest Busts in Top 10

You know how Forrest Gump's mama used to tell him that life is like a box of chocolates in that you never know what you're gonna get?

Well, the NFL draft is the same thing. Teams can scout, research and coach prospects all they want, but there's simply no way of knowing which players are going to go boom and which players are going to go bust.

We're not going to find out for a couple years, but we can rest assured that there are going to be some busts in the 2012 NFL Draft. Most of them will come from the top 10, which is just the nature of the beast.

I don't know the future, so I can't tell you which players are going to be busts.

I do, however, have a few guesses. 

Let's take a look.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

No change at the top, and no bust warning here. It's looking more and more like Andrew Luck is going to be Indy's starter in 2012, which would be unfortunate for him. Things are going to be pretty rough in Colt-land out of the gates. But down the road, Luck will be a stud. Just you watch.

2. St. Louis Rams (2-14): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU*

Okay, let's talk about Michael Brockers.

I'll say right away that I was surprised to see Brockers, a redshirt sophomore, declare for the draft this year. I figured he would wait another year, building his stock in 2012 and perhaps transforming into a top-10 pick.

Somebody must have told him that scouts already see him as a top-10 pick. They look at Brockers and see a physical beast who will be blasting his way through offensive lines in no time. He's still raw, but the talent and the tools are there.

I won't argue the point, and Brockers' stock is only going to get higher once the combine comes and goes. He's a borderline top-10 pick now, and he will soon prove himself top-five worthy. If so, he'll be in play for the Rams, as they have a need at DT, and they just hired a defensive-minded head coach in Jeff Fisher.

The reward will be high, but so will the risk. The Rams would essentially be drafting a project player, which is not the safest thing to do with the No. 2 overall pick.

I foresee them paying for it. Brockers is already overrated, and it's getting worse every day. This is Nick Fairley all over again.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC*

By all accounts, Matt Kalil is an elite offensive tackle prospect. He's going to step in and make a name for himself right away, protecting his quarterback's blindside with his life.

I have nothing to complain about when it comes to Kalil's size and skillset. He's a prototypical left tackle, and I'm well aware that Matt Barkley will vouch for Kalil's talent.

I'm just not sold on Kalil as a battle-tested prospect. It's true that he did a great job of protecting Barkley at USC, but the Pac-12 isn't home to the most dominant defensive lines in the country. It is not the SEC.

I don't foresee Kalil being a total failure in the NFL, but he will go through some growing pains when he enters the league. It won't help that he'll have a target on his ba...um, front.

Will Kalil be a good player some day? Yes. But remember, it's all relative. Players who are picked this high need to be great. Anything short of greatness just doesn't cut it.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Both NFL scouts and fans have developed a tendency to shout "Bust!" whenever they see a running back with a first-round grade, but I'm not at all worried about Trent Richardson. He's not a bust, he's a beast. The Browns would be glad to have him. 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

I thought about hitting Morris Claiborne with a bust label, but he's got the skills to be the next Darrelle Revis. Dude can cover like it's his job. It soon will be, of course, and the Bucs are going to need a guy like Claiborne. Ronde Barber is a free agent, and Aqib Talib is facing a felony assault trial.

6. Washington Redskins (5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Robert Griffin III will probably end up being drafted No. 2, but there's no way the Redskins will pass on him if he falls to them at No. 6. RG3 may not end up being a superstar, but he's got the goods to be an effective and reliable quarterback. He'll be fine.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina*

Quinton Coples frustrates me.

There are things to like about Coples. He's big, he's strong and he can be an utterly dominant pass rusher on occasion. You hear people compare him to Julius Peppers, and it's easy to see where they're coming from when you watch Coples.

The problem I have with Coples is that it seems like he just doesn't care the majority of the time. He's not a high-motor guy, which is something that I view as a big red flag. The best defensive ends attack the line of scrimmage like ravenous beasts, and that's something that you just don't see from Coples. He's a hard worker, but he's not a ferocious worker.

Of all the guys I'm singling out, Coples is the one guy who has "bust" written all over him. I hope I'm not right about any of these guys, but I won't be surprised if I'm right about Coples.

Even still, I don't think the Jaguars would pass on him if he fell to them. He has a high ceiling, and they desperately need a pass-rushing defensive end.

8. Carolina Panthers (6-10, pending coin flip with Miami): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

The Jaguars could also go for Justin Blackmon, but it's going to be a toss-up between him and Coples. If the Jags take Coples, the Panthers could easily go for Blackmon. Wide receiver is not a huge need, but it's hard to imagine a better complement for Steve Smith than Blackmon. They would suit each other.

9. Miami Dolphins (6-10, pending coin flip with Carolina): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa*

The Dolphins scored when they hired Joe Philbin to be their new head coach. He turned Green Bay's offense into an elite unit, and he'll look to do the same with the Dolphins.

Part of the process will be patching up Miami's offensive line, which is where Riley Reiff would come into play. 

Reiff is a classic case of an offensive lineman who plays with a mean streak. His technique is solid, but he got by in college mainly on brute strength and sheer force of will.

That's going to have to change at the next level. Reiff is not going to out-muscle anybody. He's going to have to learn that it's about outmaneuvering and out-muscling people.

He'll be able to do it, but this is another case of the "bust" label being relative to where a player is taken in the draft. Reiff will be good, but not top-10 good.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

The Bills took care of their D-line when they drafted Marcell Dareus third overall in 2011. They need to get a pass rusher for their linebacking corps next, and Courtney Upshaw is the perfect man for the job. He can also play defensive end if need be. 

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9, pending coin flip with Seattle): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

The Chiefs needed offensive line help in last year's draft, but they drafted Jonathan Baldwin instead. They can't afford to neglect their O-line needs again, especially if Jonathan Martin is still on the board. He would fit right in with Kansas City's offensive philosophy.

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9, pending coin flip with Kansas City): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

The Seahawks are going to need a running back if Marshawn Lynch leaves as a free agent, but right now defensive end is their biggest need. Melvin Ingram is a stud that they shouldn't pass up if they have a chance to draft him. He's a great athlete with a great motor, unlike Mr. Coples.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Conventional wisdom suggests that Alshon Jeffery is the best wide receiver in the draft after Blackmon, but the combine will prove otherwise. That's where Michael Floyd will shine, boosting his stock ahead of Jeffery's. With the Cardinals, he would be the No. 2 wide receiver the team desperately needs.

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Cowboys will be getting a steal if Dre Kirkpatrick falls to them. They need some help in their secondary, and Kirkpatrick is a borderline top-10 player. This would be a no-brainer.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State

I am perpetually on the fence when it comes to Vontaze Burfict, but there's no denying he has talent. The Eagles need a stud inside linebacker, and Burfict will be the best one on the board on draft day. He would be worth the risk.

16. New York Jets (8-8): Chris Polk, RB, Washington

I'm not gonna lie. I'm borrowing this pick from B/R's Matt Miller. This is a lot higher than Chris Polk is projected to go, but the truth is he's a perfect fit for the Jets. He would fit right in with their "ground and pound" style, and he's much more versatile than he gets credit for. The Jets' offense needs a player like him.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from 8-8 Oakland Raiders): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

Janoris Jenkins had a great week at the Senior Bowl, showing off the talent that made him a future first-rounder when he was at Florida. It's apparent that that talent is still there, and his character concerns are supposedly a thing of the past. He would be a great pick for the Bengals, who need a permanent replacement for Johnathan Joseph.

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

The Chargers should be worried about both their tackle positions, so it would be a good idea for them to draft a guy who could potentially play on both sides if need be. Mike Adams is a guy who fits the bill.

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

This is lower than most mocks have Alshon Jeffery, but the Bears won't be complaining if he falls to them. They need a bigger, more physical wide receiver, and they're not going to find a bigger, more physical receiver than Jeffery.

20. Tennessee Titans (8-8): David DeCastro, G, Stanford

The Titans will probably end up looking to draft a cornerback here, but there won't be any worth reaching for. Instead, shoring up their offensive line will have to do, and David DeCastro would be an easy pick.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

I'm going to be shocked if the Bengals re-sign Cedric Benson. If they don't, they'll need a running back in the draft. Lamar Miller would fit right in alongside A.J. Green and Andy Dalton, giving the Bengals a great core of young players on offense.

22. Cleveland Browns (from 10-6 Atlanta Falcons): Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia

The Browns could go for a wide receiver here, but Cordy Glenn would be too good to pass up. The Browns need depth at guard and tackle, and Glenn is a guy who could fill in at both areas. He would be too perfect.

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

The Lions have bigger needs than cornerback, but they're going to need another one if they want to compete with the Packers. Green Bay has too many receiving threats, and the Lions don't have the personnel to deal with them all. Stephon Gilmore would help remedy the problem.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

The Steelers' biggest needs are on their offensive line, but they have some aging players on defense that they need to start worrying about. Dont'a Hightower is a guy who could eventually step in and start at inside linebacker, and he seems like a classic Steelers player. Appears to be a great fit to me.

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

The Broncos got by with a weakness at defensive tackle in 2011, but they can't risk trying it again. They need to draft a defensive tackle in the first round, and they're not going to find a better fit for their 4-3 scheme than Jerel Worthy.

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

I love this pick. I try to find a way to mock Kendall Wright to the Texans every time I do a new mock. He's just downright perfect for them, as he's just the guy they need to open things up for Andre Johnson.

27. New England Patriots (from 13-3 New Orleans Saints): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

New England's defensive line has been great in the postseason, but that shouldn't overshadow the fact that they need some help at defensive end. Devon Still could be that help. If the Pats decide to go with a 4-3 next season, Still could play defensive tackle. Win-win.

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina

Clay Matthews is great, but the Packers could use another athlete in their linebacking corps. They're not going to find a better athlete than Zach Brown, who can absolutely fly. He would be dangerous in Dom Capers' hands. 

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Nick Perry, OLB, USC

This is a lot lower than Nick Perry should go, but the Ravens won't complain if he falls to them. They need some depth at linebacker, and Perry is a guy who could fill that need and more. 

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

The 49ers need a wide receiver. Plain and simple. Michael Crabtree is good, but he has a case of the dropsies and he could use another receiver to help ease the coverage. Mohamed Sanu will be the best option available to the 49ers at this point.

31. New York Giants (9-7): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

Luke Kuechly is another guy I'm on the fence about, as he's just not a great athlete and seems to have "Bust" written all over him. But on the Giants, he would merely have to clean up after the D-line. He's probably the best tackler in the 2012 draft class, so Kuechly could handle that much.

32. New England Patriots (13-3): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

Unless they're content to keep using Julian Edelman in coverage, the Patriots would be wise to get some cornerback depth in the draft. Alfonzo Dennard's stock fell at the Senior Bowl, but he's still a solid player who will at least be a good role player in the NFL.