Super Bowl Odds 2012: Over/Under Much Better Bet Than Point Spread

You are not going to want to waste your time betting on the winner and loser of this game.  It's not where the smart money is. 

According to Bodava, the Patriots are favored by 2.5 points.  That is a spread to avoid.  But they are also listing the over/under at 55. 

That is the bet you want to look at, and you'll want to look up when doing so. 

A 2.5-point spread isn't massive, but it's not a good bet for this game. 

The Patriots are the better overall team, but it's hard to ignore the fact that the Giants won in New England earlier in the season, and won Super Bowl XLII four years ago. 

The good news is that you don't need to bet on the spread.  There are other numbers to bet, like that juicy over/under of 55 points. 

The numbers will tell you all you need to know. 

In the playoffs, the Patriots have averaged 34 points per game, while the Giants have been at 27.

If you add those two numbers up, you will blow by 55.  During the regular season, the Patriots scored 32.1 points per game, while the Giants scored 24.6.

Both offenses had tremendous regular season efficiency, and they're better now that they are going better in the playoffs.  

The numbers paint an ugly picture for the teams, but a beautiful one for betting the over. 

The Patriots allowed 21.4 points per game, while the Giants allowed 25. 

While those two numbers don't add up to 55, realize that the Patriots weren't facing Eli Manning every game, and the Giants weren't going against Tom Brady. 

Still, New York's defense allowed more than 255 passing yards per game, while their New England counterparts allowed just short of 294. 

These two quarterbacks threw for more than 10,000 combined yards during the regular season (Brady: 5,235, Manning: 4,933). 

As a result, we're going to see a rough day for defensive backs. 

Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, and Aaron Hernandez are going to move the ball up and down the field, finding the end zone early and often. 

It might seem like 55 is a big number, but these teams are going to go over it with room to spare. 

Prediction: Patriots 34, Giants 28

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