Super Bowl 2012: Handicapping Tom Brady and MVP Favorites

Tom Brady is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2012 Super Bowl MVP, but it is a horrible bet. At the unfavorable 13/10 odds, the payout simply isn't rewarding enough to take the risk. 

There are far better plays available in what figures to be a thrilling game. Take a look at the odds, and then we'll break down some of the wise and idiotic bets available. 

The Odds

Tom Brady 13/10
Eli Manning 5/2
Rob Gronkowski 8/1
Aaron Hernandez 15/1
Hakeem Nicks 15/1
Victor Cruz 15/1
Wes Welker 15/1
Ahmad Bradshaw 25/1
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 25/1
Jason Pierre-Paul 25/1
Deion Branch 30/1
Brandon Jacobs 35/1
Mario Manningham 35/1
Antrel Rolle 50/1
Danny Woodhead 50/1
Devin McCourty 50/1
Jerod Mayo 50/1
Kyle Arrington 50/1
Osi Umenyiora 50/1
Chad Ochocinco 100/1
Jake Ballard 100/1
Lawrence Tynes 100/1
Stephen Gostkowski 100/1
Field 18/1

*Odds according to Bovada.

Bad Bets

Tom Brady 13/10

It is not surprising that Brady is the favorite here. The Patriots are the favorite, and their offense is dominated by Brady. 

At 13/10 though, this bet simply isn't worth it. There are two reasons to be concerned about this play. The first is that the Giants have a great shot at winning. They already beat the Patriots this season, and they are playing far better now than they were then. 

The other factor is that a huge chunk of Brady's passing yards are likely to wind up in the hands of Wes Welker. 

He is always one of Brady's favorite targets, and he will be even more so due to what you are about to read. 

Rob Gronkowski 8/1

Gronkowski is going to be slowed in this game by an ankle injury. 

That makes him a horrible play as one of the favorites. it also means that he is not likely to be as big a part of the game plan as he normally is. 

Good Bets

Eli Manning 5/2

This game figures to be dominated by the QBs. That makes either Brady or Manning a great candidate for MVP. Given Manning's vastly better odds, he is a much better play. 

The other thing that Manning has going in his favor is the fact that he has a lot better chance of spreading the ball around. 

The Giants have three receivers and a TE all capable of playing big roles in this game. This limits the chances of one of these guys stealing the award from Manning. 

Wes Welker 15/1

With a limping Gronkowski, Welker is going to have an even bigger role in this offense. This means more looks overall and in the red zone—and TDs are vital for MVPs. 

The first time these two teams met Welker had nine catches for 136 yards. Those are MVP-type numbers if you throw in a TD or two. 

Worth a Shot

Jake Ballard 100/1

At a 100/1 this reliable tight end is worth a shot. The Patriots' defensive game plan is likely going to center on two things: stopping the WRs and putting pressure on Manning. 

Both of these things are going to open up the field for Ballard. The first time these two met he had 67 yards and a touchdown. Add a few more catches and yards in there and a key touchdown catch and you have a surprise MVP.