Super Bowl 2012: Patriots Won't Avenge Super Bowl XLII Loss to Giants

The New York Giants are about to turn the New England Patriots into their Super Bowl whipping boys as they will beat New England in the NFL's showcase for the second time in four years. 

This should be an exciting and well played game, but ultimately the Giants will have a much easier path to victory than a miracle catch involving David Tyree's helmet. 

New York's Improved Pass Defense

The Giants' pass defense has undergone a dramatic turnaround. They spent the majority of the regular season being one of the NFL's worst in this area—they finished 29th in passing yards allowed. However, those days are long behind them. 

In the playoffs, New York has allowed an average of just 201 passing yards per game. 

The first time these two teams met, Tom Brady threw for 342 yards, and New England still only managed 20 points. He is not going to be able to throw for as many yards this game. 

The Giants' improvements can be attributed to increased health, and a better pass rush. In their three playoff games, they have nine sacks. 

New England has done an excellent job of protecting Brady in the playoffs. He has been sacked just once and hit only five times. They will be able to slow down the Giants' pass rush, but the defense will be able to get enough pressure, along with their enhanced coverage, to limit the damage New England can inflict with the pass. 

Inability to Guard New York's Wide Receivers 

The Patriots will not have the same success slowing down the Giants' passing attack. As bad as the Giants pass defense was in the regular season, the Patriots defense was even worse—they finished 31st in passing yards allowed. 

New England has a very thin and talentless group of corners. This led to Football Outsiders ranking them 32nd when guarding opposing No. 1 WRs, 20th against No. 2s and 25th against all others. 

This is bad news as they try to stop Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham. Nicks did not play the first time these two met. Despite his absence, Cruz and Manningham were able to combine for 124 yards and a touchdown. 

The Patriots are going to have an even harder time containing this group now that they are at full strength. 

Jake Ballard Will Outperform Rob Gronkowski 

Rob Gronkowski is vital to the success of the Patriots passing game. He led New England in touchdown receptions by eight, and was second in receptions and yards. 

He is also hobbled by an ankle injury. 

While he is expected to play, he is not going to be able to perform at his usual Gronktastic level with a bum ankle. 

This will be a big blow to the Patriots offense, a blow that will be amplified when Jake Ballard outperforms him. 

Ballard has pieced together a solid season in his second year. He is a reliable option for Manning, and he is a tough match-up for the Patriots. The first time these two met Ballard had 67 yards and a touchdown. 

He will have similar numbers in this one, and that will be more than Gronkowski is able to produce. 

Prediction

Giants 30, Patriots 24

The Patriots will score last and late to make the game look closer than it actually is.