Preview: Who Will Make the Chase for the Sprint Cup in 2012?

The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is shaping up to be another fantastic year. One can only hope for a repeat of a championship battle like the one in 2011. Tony Stewart made a late charge, winning five out of 10 races in last year's chase, to claim the title.

Carl Edwards, coming off his second place in the points, is the favorite going into the season. Let's see if he is deserving of that title as I show you who I think will make the chase and win the championship.

12. Kurt Busch

This will truly be a nice story if the James Finch owned car can make the chase. Since the chase was implemented in 2004, no one could have imagined a single-car team making the chase.

This year it is possible.

Finch gets his engines from Hendrick Motorsports, which is a big help. But do not get this confused with Stewart-Haas Racing, who also gets engines from Hendricks. Stewart has the money and the people to help with his cars. Finch is a small operation with limited resources.

As for Busch, he will make the most of his ride. Expect to see him in victory lane this year. Busch knows how to get the best out of the car he is in. Now that he is with a smaller team, he may realize the team will need more out of him.

Busch is determined to restore his reputation this year throughout the garage, so expect him to slip into the chase as an underdog. 

11. Marcos Ambrose

There is one reason, and one reason only why Ambrose will make the chase. Simply put, he will win both road races this year.

Ambrose finally got his name in the win column last year at Watkins Glen. With this victory, Ambrose now knows what it takes to get into victory lane. He has shown that he is one of the best—if not the best—at road races and is always a threat to win.

These road races have become more competitive and almost have a short-track feel to them now. The unknown is what may keep Ambrose out of the victory and the chase. However, if Ambrose can avoid trouble for those two races, then he should be able to win both.

With two race wins under his belt, he should make the chase with ease, as a wild card. Don't expect anyone with more than two wins to be left out of the chase this year.

10. Kevin Harvick

Harvick had an interesting year last year. He won four races while leading a total of nine laps during those races. That seems like a good sign for Harvick. He keeps his equipment in good shape during the race, then puts himself in position to win and passes you at the end.

Here is where the problem is. Harvick did not show any dominance at any point of the season. He never took charge of a race. The team was lacking something. The wins are something that cannot be taken away from Harvick. However, how he won his races can be looked at for his championship future.

Also, Harvick is involved with a new crew chief again. Chemistry is needed between driver and crew chief, and time will be needed for Harvick to develop that.

9. Tony Stewart

He had a great run last year, something that we might never see again. Let's not lose sight, though, of his 26 races of the season. Stewart found something late in the year, no doubt about that, but by now the rest of the competition has probably found it too.

It will be up to Stewart to keep up what he did in the last 10 races of the chase if he wants to win a championship. Stewart has the drive, but he needs consistency. Stewart was a contender in the beginning of the year but faded towards the middle. At the end of the year he had his surge to the championship.

Stewart will be able to squeak his way into the chase. However, the only way I see him winning the title again this year is with another stellar chase run.

8. Denny Hamlin

Hamlin was a disappointment last year for most people. Coming off an eight win season he was considered the one who was going to knock off Jimmie Johnson. Instead, Hamlin squeezed into the chase by earning the wild card with his win at Michigan.

What we saw from Hamlin the past two years will be rare in his future. Hamlin is not an eight-wins-a-season driver. He also is not a driver who barely is in contention for any races. Hamlin will get Joe Gibbs Racing a couple of wins this season. He is an excellent short-track racer and is always a threat at Pocono.

Having the crew chief from last year's championship team is not too bad either. Hamlin will be confident knowing he has a crew chief who can get the job done and put him in contention to win races and the championship.

7. Greg Biffle

Greg Biffle was a disappointment last season. He was the only driver out of the Roush Fenway camp that didn't earn a win. That losing streak should end this year.

He was a contender in races early. He would get the lead and stay there. Biffle did what he had to do and the car had the speed to stay up front. The pit crew was not good last year and made untimely mistakes in what seemed like every race. Even Biffle himself made his fair share of mistakes, including a speeding penalty on pit road while leading.

Biffle is the opposite of Kevin Harvick. He leads early and disappears late. The reason that he will do good this year though, is that Biffle and his team will not make the mistakes they made last year. They have learned by now and will be more focused than ever.

Biffle will be a threat at the 1.5 mile tracks and will be in contention for wins all year.

6. Kasey Kahne

Kahne is taking over for Mark Martin in the No. 5 car at Hendrick Motorsports this year. Expectations will be high for Kahne, as they should be.

Kahne ended the season on a tear. He was the third-ranked driver in the final 10 races, behind only Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards. With his move from Red Bull to Hendrick, he joins a top-tier team for the first time in his Sprint Cup career.

His performances with other teams throughout his career have been great. Now with Hendrick Motorsports, it's time for Kahne to compete for championships.

This year will be a nice start, but he will not win the championship.

5. Jeff Gordon

The four-time champ still has some juice left in him.

With three victories last year going into the chase, Gordon was one of the favorites to win it all. When the chase started, it all fell apart. Gordon has not won a championship since 2001 and is still looking for his first championship under the chase format.

Year in and year out, we see Gordon compete at a high level. At this point in his career, we know that he will compete for wins. Now the question is whether or not he can be that competitive throughout the season.

The No. 24 team has some signs of inconsistency over the past few years, especially at the 1.5 mile tracks. Last year the team showed signs of life at those tracks.

If Gordon can keep that up again this year, he will be a threat in the chase.

4. Kyle Busch

Once again, Busch led the series in wins after the first 26 races. However, Busch has yet to record a victory during the chase. Last season was no different.

Whatever is plaguing Busch in the final 10 races is a mystery and is something Busch needs to correct.

He also needs to calm down. Busch lets his emotions show too much. The fans are tired of it and want him to grow up. He is the most hated driver by fans for a reason. He has an attitude. The attitude Busch has is fine, he just needs to control it.

Winning a championship is not just about being the fastest car each week. It's about having the right strategy, or turning a bad day into a good one. Busch has claimed on several occasions that he has changed. But until the fans see at least one full season of a mature Kyle Busch, it won't be bought.

3. Carl Edwards

It's still hard to believe that Edwards did not win the championship last year.

He was dominant the entire year, leading the points for the majority of the season. Edwards, though dominant, only found victory lane once this year at Las Vegas. The ironic part of his win was that it was done by strategy.

Tony Stewart had the dominant car that day, but Edwards took two tires on the final pit stop to take the win away from him. When Edwards was the car to beat, he never found victory lane.

The year Edwards had was similar to what his teammate Matt Kenseth had in 2003. The problem now is the chase. What was built in the first 26 races of the season is erased.

Edwards will need to be slightly better next year to close the deal by winning more races.

Expect Edwards to be in contention all the way to the season finale at Homestead. If Edwards does win his first championship this year, we could be looking at another Jimmie Johnson.

2. Matt Kenseth

Kenseth looked like a serious contender during the chase last year.

The chase started off on a bad note when he ran out of gas on the last lap at Chicagoland. That was followed by J.J. Yeley pushing him to the finish line—which is illegal. NASCAR penalized him from his ninth place finish to last car on the lead lap, 21st.

This was a sign to the kind of chase Kenseth was going to have. After Chicago, Kenseth was having a good chase. Then came Martinsville. A run-in with Brian Vickers led to an eventual flat tire. A crash at Talladega and a retaliation spin by Vickers at Phoenix ended any hope of a second title.

Kenseth is strong almost anywhere he goes. He has the best pit crew, which is more essential now then ever. Kenseth is very calm behind the wheel, but also knows when to put his foot down.

Kenseth should easily win three races this year and be in the thick of the title hunt.

1. Jimmie Johnson

The fans do not want to see any other Johnson title run.

Johnson had his worst season last year, but still had two wins and finished sixth in points. His run of five straight championships came to an end, which will put his drive for a championship higher than ever.

Johnson is, in my mind, the best out there. He is good at every track he goes to.

He also has the benefit of having Chad Knaus as his crew chief. Knaus was no doubt working non-stop to get the No. 48 team back to the top. Going into a season, you can guarantee that one team will be prepared—the No. 48 team.

They will be a force this year and the competition should be worried. Don't be surprised if he wins at least five times this year on his way to a sixth championship.