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Power Ranking Every Starting NFL QB Based on Maximum Potential

Wes StueveJan 24, 2012

On one end of the spectrum of NFL starting quarterbacks there is Aaron Rodgers. On the other, there is Cam Newton.

Rodgers is already elite—he can't get much better.

Though Newton is quite good, he has a ton of room to grow and improve as a quarterback.

This article is not about how good a quarterback is now. It's not even about how good he will be.

It's about how good he can be.

Obviously, current ability and age are both factors here. If a quarterback is beyond awful after several years in the NFL, he probably isn't going to get much better.

Now if a quarterback is a rookie already playing at a high level, we have a different story. 

Is it really outrageous to put Cam Newton on the same level as Aaron Rodgers? 

You decide. 

32. Rex Grossman

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2012 will be Rex Grossman's 10th season, and he remains a terrible quarterback. In 2011, Grossman proved that he should not be starting anywhere when he posted a 72.4 passer rating.

Regardless of what team he was playing for, Grossman has never posted even a decent season. There is no longer any upside, and Grossman is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL.

31. Tarvaris Jackson

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In his first full season starting, Tarvaris Jackson produced better than he ever has before. 

Not like that's saying much.

The 28-year-old still threw just one touchdown more than he threw interceptions, and he didn't exactly lead the Seahawks to greatness. Jakcson completed just over 60 percent of his passes for just over 3,000 yards in 15 games.

It should be obvious to everyone in Seattle that Jackson isn't taking the team anywhere, and he never will be good enough to.

30. Colt McCoy

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Colt McCoy's lone redeeming quality is his age.

The 25-year-old has played in the NFL for just two seasons, but the early results aren't positive. McCoy averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt in 2011, and threw only 14 touchdowns.

Out of Texas, McCoy was highly regarded for his accuracy. He hasn't shown that in Cleveland, as he has not even completed 60 percent of his passes in Pat Shurmur's West Coast Offense.

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29. Tim Tebow

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Tim Tebow's 2011 numbers were awful, but he just wins games?

As of now, Tebow is a terrible passing quarterback. He completed less than half his passes and had a 72.0 passer rating. He did, however, do a good job of running the football and averaged 5.4 yards per carry.

Tebow is all upside. But there really isn't that much upside. The former Heisman Trophy winner will never be a good passing quarterback, but maybe his running ability will be able to make up for it.

I doubt it, though.

28. Matt Cassel

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Matt Cassel is a confusing quarterback. He had two above-average seasons, but he has looked downright bad in every other season. The former Patriot is now 29 years old and running out of time.

Even in his good years, Cassel didn't really run the offense. For the Patriots, Cassel dished the ball to Randy Moss and Wes Welker. In 2010, he ran an offense benefiting from terrific play out of Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe.

In the best case scenario, Cassel develops into a below-average quarterback.

Not great upside.

27. Mark Sanchez

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After three years as the Jets' starting quarterback, Mark Sanchez has pretty well established himself as a terrible quarterback. The former No. 5 overall pick has been surrounded by good weapons, but he still can't produce.

Sanchez has thrown a ton of interceptions, and even worse, pick-sixes. At this point, there are few advantages to Sanchez's game. He still has above-average physical ability, but he simply can't play football at a high level.

The bright side is that Sanchez is still young and could improve with time.

26. Alex Smith

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Just when we all thought Alex Smith was done as a starting quarterback, he puts together a solid season, leading the 49ers to the NFC Championship. 

But does that mean Smith should be San Francisco's long-term plan?

No.

The former No. 1 overall pick has been playing for a while now, and he still isn't that good. 2011 was a great year for Smith, but don't expect more in the future.

Some players aren't good enough to win a Super Bowl, and Smith is one of them.

25. Matt Hasselbeck

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For the moment, Matt Hasselbeck is the starting quarterback in Tennessee. Could that change before 2012 begins? Absolutely.

In 2011, Hasselbeck played better than anyone thought possible. The former Seahawk produced reasonably well on a not-so-great offense. 

Matt Hasselbeck will never again be an upper-level quarterback. But, as he proved in 2011, he can still be decent.

24. Chad Henne

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Lost in Miami's poor 2011 season was Chad Henne's play early in the year. The numbers don't show it, but Henne actually payed well before a shoulder injury ended his season.

Henne hasn't been great by any means, but he still has one of the strongest arms in football. Though the Michigan product probably won't be a starting quarterback, it could happen. 

The book is not yet closed on Chad Henne.

23. Ryan Fitzpatrick

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The beginning of the 2011 season went brilliantly for Ryan Fitzpatrick. He put up great numbers, led a terrific offense and won games. The Bills rewarded him with a $59 million contract.

Then everything fell apart. Buffalo lost eight of their last nine games and finished with a 6-10 record. Fitzpatrick played horribly, and there has been talk of the Bills releasing him.

Despite this disastrous turn of events, Fitzpatrick can still play at a high level. He's done it before, and he didn't suddenly lose his talent. 

22. Kevin Kolb

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2011 was a bad year for Kevin Kolb.

The first-year Cardinal played in just nine games and didn't play at an especially high level in those games. It should be noted, however, that Kolb was playing behind a terrible offensive line and dealt with some injuries.

If Arizona improves along the offensive line before 2012, we will be able to more accurately evaluate Kolb. Until then, it is extremely difficult to tell how good the former Eagle actually is, and how good he can be.

21. Andy Dalton

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Andy Dalton played excellently in his rookie season. He completely turned around the Bengals in just one season. Sure, the playoffs didn't go so well, but Cincinnati was overmatched.

But Dalton doesn't have a ton of upside. The former TCU star doesn't possess a rocket arm, and he seems like more of a game-manager moving forward. There's nothing about Dalton that makes him look like a star in the making.

He should still be decent, though.

20. Carson Palmer

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For a couple years, Carson Palmer was one of the best quarterbacks in football. Then Palmer tore his ACL and the entire Bengals team began to struggle. Now, Palmer is a member of the Oakland Raiders.

Though he has struggled, Palmer is still a talented player. Maybe he simply needs a change of scenery to rejuvenate his once promising career. It didn't happen in 2011, but it might in 2012.

Palmer probably won't suddenly return to being an above-average quarterback. However, crazier things have happened.

19. Christian Ponder

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Christian Ponder's rookie season was rough. There's no way around it. However, he was a rookie playing with a terrible offensive line and a well-below-average wide receiver corps.

Ponder could still have a future, though. The No. 12 overall pick is athletic and accurate with decent physical ability. There's virtually no chance of Ponder developing into a star, but that doesn't mean he can't be decent.

18. Blaine Gabbert

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If Christian Ponder's rookie season was rough, Blaine Gabbert's was horrific. The No. 10 overall pick barely completed 50 percent of his passes and displayed the pocket presence of a junior-high quarterback.

On the other hand, Gabbert's physical ability cannot be denied. The 6'4", 235-pounder is a fantastic athlete with an excellent arm. Few quarterbacks are more talented.

But Gabbert's lack of pocket presence will hold him back. Usually, a player with Gabbert's physical ability has elite potential. Gabbert is simply too bad at everything else for this to be the case with him.

17. Joe Flacco

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2011 was an up-and-down season for Joe Flacco, but his previous two campaigns were much better. Though we can pretty well rule out Flacco developing into a star, he is a decent player with the potential to improve.

At times, Flacco held back the Baltimore offense. At other times—such as the playoff game against New England—he carried the Ravens' offense. The ability is there for Flacco to carry a team.

The odds of Flacco doing so consistently, however, are pretty slim.

16. Matt Ryan

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Matt Ryan's numbers have been terrific. 

His play, not so much.

Before 2011, the Falcons were hoping Ryan would take the next step and develop into a star quarterback. It didn't happen. Ryan still doesn't throw vertically very often, and he still benefits tremendously from the talent around him rather than the reverse.

Despite this lack of improvement, Ryan still played well in 2011. He ran the Atlanta offense at a high level and played well enough to win games. 

Ryan's upside is limited, but he is now, and always will be, solid.

15. Matt Schaub

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When healthy, Matt Schaub is extremely productive. He threw for over 4,000 yards in 2010 and 2009. 

However, it would be a big mistake to call Schaub elite.

Though he has thrown for a ton of yards, Schaub has never thrown a ton of touchdowns or put together a great quarterback rating. He's an above-average quarterback—but not much more.

Now 30 years old, Schaub probably isn't going to improve. He will be the same caliber of player for the rest of his career, and Houston fans are probably OK with that.

14. Michael Vick

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In 2010, Michael Vick showed the world how good he can be. The former No. 1 overall pick may be the most talented quarterback in the game, and no one is more exciting.

At this point, though, Vick has still only shown flashes of greatness. He will look downright awful some games while looking like the best player ever in others. Add in the injuries, and Vick is not an elite quarterback.

Vick has dramatically improved as a passer since returning from prison, but he still isn't great. It's unlikely he will get better, too.

13. Josh Freeman

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Josh Freeman was a terrific player in 2010. With massive size, a fantastic arm and great athleticism, the Buccaneers quarterback is one of the most talented passers in the game. 

2011 didn't go as well for Freeman.

The entire Tampa Bay offense was a mess, and it's safe to say Freeman wasn't the sole cause of his struggles. However, his 22 interceptions were an issue, and Freeman needs to become more consistent.

Freeman will never be a great decision-maker, but his talent alone could make him a top quarterback.

12. Peyton Manning

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Peyton Manning is obviously one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. The issue is not Manning's ability, it's his age and health.

The superstar quarterback sat out all of 2011 with a neck injury, and at 36 years old, he doesn't have many years left in the NFL. 

Now, even if Manning is able to return—and that's a big if—does anyone expect him to be the same player he was? The talent around Manning is deteriorating as quickly as his health, and he will never again be an elite quarterback.

11. Tony Romo

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Since he began starting in Dallas, Tony Romo has been one of the game's most productive yet criticized quarterbacks in the game. Romo has never produced a passer rating under 90 for a season, and he broke 100 in 2011.

For whatever reason, though, Romo can't seem to break into the elite category of quarterbacks. He is a great player, no doubt, but he hasn't been able to push Dallas over the top. 

Maybe Romo will still win a Super Bowl, but he probably won't improve as a player.

10. Eli Manning

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Eli Manning is absolutely an elite quarterback. Manning played at an extremely high level all season, and he—not the New York defense—is the reason for the Giants' Super Bowl appearance. 

The question here isn't how good Manning is, but how much better he can get.

Not much better.

The younger brother is now 31 years old and has reached his full potential. Yes, Manning was an elite quarterback in 2011, but he will never be capable of competing for an MVP award. 

9. Philip Rivers

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Though he has produced among the game's best quarterbacks for a few years, Philip Rivers is never mentioned among the game's best players. There's a reason for that.

He isn't one of them.

Now, Rivers is certainly a terrific player and an elite quarterback, but he is not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. And he never will be.

Rivers lacks elite talent and relies on his accuracy and intelligence to succeed. There's nothing wrong with that, but short of Peyton Manning, no player with that skill-set has been the best player in the game.

8. Jay Cutler

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Say what you want about Jay Cutler, but the guy is good. Few quarterbacks have a better combination of arm strength and athletic ability, and Cutler is accurate and smart enough to succeed.

Cutler has certainly had his struggles, but almost all of them can be attributed to his awful offensive line and Mike Martz. The former Bronco doesn't even have good wide receivers to work with.

Odds are that Cutler will never solidify himself as one of the best. He does, however, have the ability and time to do so.

7. Ben Roethlisberger

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It's hard to say exactly when it happened, but the Steelers turned into a passing team under the helm of Ben Roethlisberger. The 6'5", 240-pounder is a phenomenal talent with a rare ability to keep plays alive. 

There is nothing Roethlisberger can't do. The former No. 11 overall pick can run, throw deep, throw short, audible—you name it. 

Few quarterbacks with Roethlisberger's ability are as good as he is. Roethlisberger isn't going to improve, and he is still this high on the list.

6. Sam Bradford

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This is probably a controversial pick.

Unlike many people, I still believe Sam Bradford can develop into an elite player. 

Bradford is big, athletic, intelligent and deadly-accurate. The No. 1 overall pick in 2010, Bradford is hindered by a terrible St. Louis offense, but the skills are still there for him to dominate in the NFL.

Unlike most high-potential players, Bradford does not possess a rocket arm. However, his accuracy is incredibly rare, and he can still throw vertically. 

If the Rams find Bradford some linemen and wide receivers, he will be a star.

5. Drew Brees

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For whatever reason, Drew Brees doesn't get a ton of recognition for his play. Yeah, people talk about him as an elite quarterback, but Brees is literally one of the best and most accurate players in the history of the NFL.

Brees has now passed for over 4,000 yards in his past six seasons, and he now owns the record for highest completion percentage in a single season. 

The Saints star is far from the typical quarterback, though. Brees weighs in at just 6'0", 209 pounds and does not possess a rocket arm.

He's just so smart and accurate that it doesn't matter.

4. Tom Brady

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Tom Brady has developed into the prototype for quarterbacks. The former sixth-round pick stands at 6'4", 225 pounds and possesses an arm that is among the best in football. 

Brady's numbers over the years have been staggering. He has produced quarterback ratings above 100 three times and is about to play in his fifth Super Bowl.

Few quarterbacks in history have been better than Brady, and just as few even had the ability to be better. 

3. Matthew Stafford

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The No. 1 overall pick in 2009, Matthew Stafford had struggled with injuries prior to breaking out in 2011. Stafford threw for a staggering 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns in his first full season as a starter.

It's scary to think that he's going to improve.

Though Stafford's biggest weakness is his occasionally-erratic accuracy, he completed 63.5 percent of his passes last year. This combined with his unbelievable arm strength is scary.

It's said far too often, but there is not a throw on the field Stafford cannot make. He's producing with the game's best quarterbacks right now.

And he's only 23 years old.

2. Cam Newton

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Few expected it, but Cam Newton put together a rookie campaign for the ages. 2010's Heisman Trophy winner threw for over 4,000 yards and scored 35 touchdowns.

In this historic season, Newton did more than break rookie records—passing yards in a game, passing yards in a season. He broke all-time records, such as most rushing touchdowns for a quarterback. Newton was also the first player to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 700 more.

Newton is already passing at a high level. His arm strength is rare, and he is incredibly poised in the pocket.

What makes Newton even more dangerous is his running ability. The star quarterback is one of the game's best red-zone threats. Only Michael Vick is a better runner from the quarterback position, and even that is debatable.

For the first time, the NFL has a quarterback capable of running the spread option offense. 

1. Aaron Rodgers

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It's not an exaggeration to say that Aaron Rodgers just had the best passing season in NFL history. In 2011, Rodgers threw for 4,600 yards and 45 touchdowns while throwing only six interceptions and setting the NFL record for passer rating in a single season.

On top of all this, Rogers owns the career record passer rating in both the regular and postseason. 

He's only 28 years old.

Rodgers is just as smart as any quarterback not named Peyton Manning, and he's more talented than all of those. Brett Favre's former backup can launch the ball down field with just a flick of his wrist and can outrun linebackers with ease.

That's not even mentioning his accuracy, which could set records in the future.

Aaron Rodgers may not be the most physically talented player in the game, but those who are more talented aren't nearly as smart or accurate.

It's hard to imagine anyone developing into a better player than Rodgers is right now.

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