College Basketball: Updated List of 15 Major Conference Teams on the Bubble

We're more than halfway through the college basketball regular season and conference standings are beginning to mold.

Now comes the time for NCAA Tournament bracketology.

Some teams are already a sure lock for this year's big dance. However, most are still battling for contention and are treading water when it comes to seeding.

The Xavier Musketeers are the perfect example, a team that won eight straight games to start the season and earned a ranking inside the Top 10. Since then, they are 5-6 and have lost to schools such as Hawaii and La Salle.

Much like Xavier, there are squads that are currently on the outside looking in. Still, there's plenty of time left to get things together and make a run.

Here are 15 teams that are on the tournament bubble as of January 22.

Arizona Wildcats

Record

13-7 (4-3 Pac-12)

Key Wins

None

Key Losses

at UCLA, at Colorado

RPI

72

In or Out

Out

Why

Unfortunately for Arizona, Derrick Williams is no longer there to carry the team. The Wildcats have taken a huge hit offensively, and it has shown against quality teams (60.1 points per game in losses). Of their 11 remaining games, six are on the road and eight are against teams with winning records.

Central Florida Knights

Record

15-4 (5-1 C-USA)

Key Wins

vs. UCONN, vs. Memphis

Key Losses

at Florida State, at Louisiana-Lafayette, at Marshall

RPI

59

In or Out

In

Why

Marcus Jordan, son of Michael Jordan (ever heard of him?) has his team standing alone atop the Conference USA. The junior guard leads the team with 16.1 points per game and hopes to give the Knights a chance to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005.

It won't be easy, as UCF still has to play Southern Miss (17-3, 4-1) twice and face both Memphis and Marshall again. Still, Jordan and the Knights possess the skill set to do it.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Record

15-5 (5-2 Big East)

Key Wins

at Georgetown, at UCONN

Key Losses

vs. Presbyterian, vs. Marshall, vs. Saint John's

RPI

92

In or Out

In

Why

Cincinnati barely squeezes in the tournament but has a lot of work to do. The Bearcats have won 10 of 12 games since their infamous brawl with crosstown rival Xavier, including huge road wins against Pittsburgh, Georgetown and Connecticut.

Despite its rocky non-conference start, UC has started off 5-2 in the Big East and is only 1.5 games back of first. Of its final 11 games, six opponents currently have a losing conference record. If the Bearcats can win the games they're supposed to and get one more trademark victory, they'll be shopping for dancing shoes.

Florida State Seminoles

Record

13-6 (4-1 ACC)

Key Wins

vs. North Carolina, at Duke

Key Losses

vs. Princeton, at Clemson

RPI

24

In or Out

In

Why

The Seminoles weren't even close to being considered a tournament team 10 days ago. But after beating No. 3 North Carolina by 33 and snapping No. 4 Duke's 45-game home winning streak, they've become a hot topic among bubble teams.

Florida State has won five of six after starting the season 8-5. Four of its six losses have come to teams that were or are in the Top 25, so its record is somewhat deceiving. If the Seminoles can knock off the bottom-feeding teams of the ACC and beat Virginia once, they can find themselves still playing in late March.

Louisville Cardinals

Record

15-5 (3-4 Big East)

Key Wins

vs. Vanderbilt

Key Losses

vs. Notre Dame, at Providence

RPI

41

In or Out

Out

Why

Louisville's only quality win comes from a 62-60 overtime game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at home. The Cardinals went 12-1 through their non-conference schedule, with their only blemish being a loss to Kentucky. Rick Pitino's squad has started Big East play with a 3-4 record, including an embarrassing 90-59 blowout loss to Providence (12-8, 1-6).

Louisville still has to go on the road to face Seton Hall (15-4, 4-3), West Virginia (15-5, 5-2), Cincinnati (15-5, 5-2) and Syracuse (20-1, 7-1), while taking on Connecticut (14-5, 4-3), Syracuse and South Florida (12-8, 5-2) at home. Unless they start taking better shots and immediately improve their overall shooting percentage (173rd in nation), the Cardinals will be sitting at home this postseason for the first time since 2006.

Memphis Tigers

Record

13-6 (4-1 C-USA)

Key Wins

None

Key Losses

vs. Murray State, at Louisville, at Central Florida

RPI

27

In or Out

Out

Why

The Conference USA is tightly contested and will be until the end of the regular season. Memphis is right in the thick of things with half-a-game separating the Tigers from Central Florida, Southern Miss and Marshall.

However, the C-USA is not a powerhouse conference and is not known for bringing multiple teams into the NCAA Tournament. Possibly two teams will make it this year, one being the regular-season champion and the other the conference tournament champion (or second-place finisher). The Tigers are a one-dimensional team this year, with only two players averaging over double-digit points per game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Record

15-5 (3-4 Big Ten)

Key Wins

at Indiana

Key Losses

vs. Dayton, vs. Iowa

RPI

52

In or Out

In

Why

After winning 12 of 13 games to start the season, Minnesota dropped four in a row to begin conference play. However, since then, the Golden Gophers have won three straight, including an outstanding road victory against then-ranked No. 8 Indiana.

If there was ever a "true bubble team", it'd be Tubby Smith's Gophers. They still have matchups against five ranked opponents left on their schedule, which gives them plenty of opportunities for the second quality win that will be required to participate in March Madness.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record

16-4 (3-2 SEC)

Key Wins

vs. Texas A&M, vs. Arizona, vs. West Virginia, vs. Alabama, at Vanderbilt

Key Losses

vs. Akron, at Arkansas, at Ole Miss

RPI

39

In or Out

In

Why

Looking at the Bulldogs' key wins and overall record, you're probably wondering why they're even on this list. It's a viable question, but the main thing for Mississippi State is conference play. It already has its headline wins. If the Bulldogs can win 10 or 11 games in the SEC—which their schedule says they can—they're a lock for the NCAA Tournament.

Although, controlling your own destiny can be harder than it looks.

North Carolina State Wolfpack

Record

15-5 (4-1 ACC)

Key Wins

None

Key Losses

at Stanford, vs. Georgia Tech

RPI

55

In or Out

In

Why

Since losing to Syracuse on December 17th, North Carolina State has put together a 9-1 record and is tied for first in the Atlantic Coastal Conference. The Wolfpack have not earned a quality win yet, but can do so with two chances against North Carolina and one with Duke.

In a year that the ACC seems to be a bit watered down, NC State has a great opportunity to regain relevancy and make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006.

Oklahoma Sooners

Record

12-6 (2-4 Big 12)

Key Wins

vs. Kansas State

Key Losses

vs. Saint Louis, at Cincinnati, at Oklahoma State

RPI

71

In or Out

Out

Why

The Sooners were a nice surprise in the early parts of the season, but have come to their own in conference play. Since starting 9-1, Oklahoma has lost five of eight and has fallen to sixth in the Big 12.

Oklahoma's remaining 12 games consists of 10 opponents with a winning record, including four ranked inside the Top 10.

Oregon Ducks

Record

15-5 (6-2 Pac-12)

Key Wins

None

Key Losses

at Washington

RPI

56

In or Out

In

Why

So much for sticking to football.

With Arizona and Washington in a rebuilding phase, the Pac-12 is up for grabs. Oregon currently sits in first place, tied with California. However, just one game separates the Ducks from dropping five spots in the standings.

Oregon does not have a key win, but will play seven teams with winning records, including the Golden Bears. That's a game they'll have to win.

Purdue Boilermakers

Record

14-6 (4-3 Big Ten)

Key Wins

vs. Temple, vs. Illinois, at Minnesota

Key Losses

at Xavier, vs. Butler, at Penn State

RPI

48

In or Out

Out

Why

If it weren't for senior forward Robbie Hummel, Purdue's only goal this season would be to finish with a winning record. He's been the heart and soul of the offense, scoring 15.4 points per game. But he can't do it all.

In the Boilermakers' six losses, they are falling to an average score of 69-58. They flat out lack the firepower to stay in games against quality opponents, and they still have seven more games against teams ranked inside the Top 25.

Texas Longhorns

Record

12-7 (2-4 Big 12)

Key Wins

vs. Temple

Key Losses

vs. Oregon State

RPI

68

In or Out

Out

Why

As of right now, it looks like five teams from the Big 12 will be dancing in March. Unfortunately for Texas,they won't be one of them.

The Longhorns still have plenty of opportunities to get back into the hunt with upcoming games against Baylor (twice), Missouri and Kansas. However, their resume says that they will falter.

Wisconsin Badgers

Record

16-5 (5-3 Big Ten)

Key Wins

vs. UNLV, at Illinois

Key Losses

vs. Iowa

RPI

40

In or Out

In

Why

Four of five Wisconsin losses have come from ranked opponents, including a close road game versus North Carolina and an overtime loss to then-ranked No. 11 Michigan State. The Badgers have won four straight, holding opponents to 56.8 points per contest during this stretch.

Wisconsin will play five more games against ranked teams before season's end, but three of them will be in Madison.

Besides, the Badgers haven't missed the NCAA Tournament since 1998.

Xavier Musketeers

Record

13-6 (4-2 A-10)

Key Wins

at Vanderbilt, vs. Cincinnati

Key Losses

vs. Oral Roberts, vs. Long Beach State, at Hawaii, vs. La Salle, at Dayton

RPI

44

In or Out

Out

Why

Xavier has too many bubble-popping losses to match its few quality wins, and its remaining schedule doesn't contain any opponents ranked inside the Top 25. It will all come down to the Musketeers winning at least eight of its final 11 games and then going on a big run in the conference tournament.

And I don't think Dayton, Massachusetts and St. Louis will have any of that.