Ravens vs. Patriots Predictions: Baltimore Will Be Too Physical for New England

Fortunately for the Baltimore Ravens and their fans, there will be no slaying of the Pittsburgh Steelers necessary to reach Indianapolis and Super Bowl XLVI this February. Tim Tebow took care of that with an 80-yard overtime dagger two weeks ago. 

Why is that significant?

Because Sunday's AFC Championship Game between the Ravens and the conference's No. 1 overall seed, the New England Patriots, presents a distinct physical advantage for Baltimore, a team used to surviving defensive slug-fests with their AFC North rival. 

The Steelers have knocked the Ravens out of the playoff picture in two of the past three seasons, in January 2009's AFC Championship Game at Heinz Field and again in January 2011 in the divisional round.

Packed neatly in between those two playoff failures was January 2010, when Baltimore traveled to Foxboro to play the Patriots in the wild-card round. By the time the Ravens' 33-14 shellacking was over, the mystique of Gillette Stadium had been lost.

Two years later, the Ravens are back at Gillette with a shot at pulling off yet another upset at the expense of Tom Brady and the Pats.

It is highly unlikely that head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will agree to run the ball 50-plus times, especially considering that an overworked Ray Rice would limit him as a key contributor in the passing game, and that Ricky Williams is no Willis McGahee. 

Still, the blueprint from that successful Sunday in Foxboro will be put to the test this time around. It is all about physicality for the Baltimore Ravens. It's what they hang their hats on week after week.

Being physical from the opening kickoff on both sides of the ball will determine whether Baltimore advances. It's that simple.

Two years ago the Ravens came after Brady and forced him into feeling fear for the first time in his postseason career. That wild-card loss featured Brady's worst-ever quarterback rating in the playoffs: 49.1.

They eliminated any down-field targets for Brady and he had no choice but to get sacked by Terrell Suggs or drop the ball off for an average gain of less than four yards per attempt. While Brady completed 23 passes that day, 19 more than Baltimore's Joe Flacco, he threw three to Ed Reed and the Ravens defense.

It starts with being physical at the line of scrimmage for Baltimore. Haloti Ngata is the key up front on the defensive line. If he comes to play than his presence will stifle the running game and make life easy for Ray Lewis and the interior linebackers. Lewis led the Ravens in tackles with 13 at Foxboro two winters ago. 

On offense, it will be all about Baltimore's huge offensive line. As already mentioned before, fans are unlikely to witness 52 carries to only 10 pass attempts, but Ray Rice's touches must be equal to or more than Flacco's.

Rice's 22 carries back in January 2010 were just right. Twenty-one is the key number on Sunday. Rice had 21 attempts in Baltimore's win over the Houston Texans last weekend, and has never had more than 13 in a loss this season.

If Rice can get at least 21 carries against the Patriots than Brady will only have a limited number of snaps to work with on offense.

No. 27 will get his fair share of receptions as well, where he is best at moving the chains after making a defender or two miss. Rice is averaging 9.3 yards per catch this season. 

There is more than one way to be physical in the postseason, and no team understands that better than the Baltimore Ravens. Their defense stood for physicality in 2000 when it ransacked opposing offenses all the way to the franchise's first ever Super Bowl title. 

That hasn't changed.

Baltimore's decade of physical, defensive dominance has not gone unnoticed and certainly won't against the Patriots on Sunday afternoon.