AFC Championship Game 2012: Tom Brady, Joe Flacco and the Execution of Offense
This season's AFC Championship game between Baltimore and New England isn't going to come down to which defense steps up, because each are strong within their own right.
Now, much can also be said about their offenses; however, the way in which both Tom Brady and Joe Flacco execute on Sunday will be the difference.
So, let's take a look at what each offense can expect as well as how to adjust mid-game to win the AFC.
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Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense
During the regular season, New England only turned the ball over 17 times and the Ravens forced 26 turnovers. In the Divisional Round last week, the Patriots turned the rock over twice and Baltimore forced five takeaways from Houston.
So, it's clear that the Ravens are not only going to play aggressively, but are going to look to get additional possessions.
Therefore, expect a lot of blitzing from Baltimore as the coverage will need help in shutting down Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker among others. The trick for the Patriots is Tom Brady's ability to read the Ravens pre-snap.
In turn, there's going to be a lot of audibles called and routes adjusted mid-play to compensate for the Ravens pass rush and press coverage. Brady will need to take a lot of three-step drops, thus negating the chance of getting sacked as well as getting the ball into his receivers' hands early.
The longer any offense lets Ed Reed and Ray Lewis dissect a play as it's developing only increases their opportunity for a turnover. Also, anticipate Brady even switching some pass plays to run plays.
Baltimore needs to kept honest as possible because if the Patriots begin to repeat tendencies, the Ravens will pick up on it and capitalize. Executing after an audible will be the determining factor in how well New England consistently moves the chains.
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense
Move to the other side of the ball and we see an eerily similar defense to that of Green Bay's in New England, because the Patriots are very opportunistic.
On the year the Pats forced 34 turnovers but they also recorded 40 sacks, whereas the Packers only had 29. In addition, New England has a group of linebackers who can cover well—it's the secondary that's killed them.
As for Baltimore, the Ravens have turned the rock over 24 times (12 picks, 12 fumbles) but did not give it away once in the Divisional Round.
It is not so much in terms of audibles for the Ravens as it is straight smash mouth football. Bill Belichick may run a complex scheme; however, all Baltimore needs to do is establish a ground game.
Without a doubt, the Patriots are going to be aggressive because Flacco was sacked five times and hit an additional six times versus the Texans. So, his pass protection will get exploited. That being said, the Ravens won't be calling too many five or seven-step drop plays that take longer to develop.
The less complicated the game plan is for Flacco, the more effective he can be. The only concern is Baltimore's ability to control the game tempo. New England can score at any time because they are more explosive, so this game will be very telling in regards to how much Flacco has developed and whether he's able to lead in the postseason.
John Rozum on Twitter

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