Why 2012 Will Be the Most Important Year in UFC History

The year 2012 is one that will forever make or break the UFC. What happens this year will determine the future of the UFC and MMA.

What is so special about 2012?

There are issues in the MMA/UFC world that will come to a head or otherwise fully play out in this particular 365-day period, issues that will change the landscape of MMA in one way or another.

What are these issues and how can they impact the ultimate fate of the UFC and MMA?

Read and find out!

Underwhelming Pay-Per-View Buys

Pay-per-view numbers in 2011 proved that the UFC wasn't the unstoppable juggernaut that they're often made out to be; they are as fallible as any other sports organization.

In 2011, only four PPVs broke the 500k barrier. Such a pedestrian number isn't acceptable for 2012.

There is, however, a way that the UFC can either circumvent or otherwise negate the issue of poor PPV buy rates...

The Deal with FOX

The UFC's deal with FOX will kick into full gear in 2012.

Airing fights for free on FOX might be the shot in the arm that the UFC PPVs need. If (new/casual) fans see Chael Sonnen smash Michael Bisping on FOX, they'll be that much more inclined to purchase a PPV featuring Sonnen.

New stars can be created on free television, which is crucial since the UFC has lost its biggest draws Brock Lesnar (due to retirement) and Georges St. Pierre (until November due to injury).

2012 will therefore be a year where the strength of the UFC's brand as well as the name recognition/amount of superstars increases by a wide margin due to numerous shows on FOX and FX. 

The higher amount of exposure may be the elixir to the UFC's PPV ailment, or it may be the harbinger of something new: the UFC moving away from the PPV model.

It's possible, however unlikely, that the UFC will adopt the model that the WWE once had in terms of PPVs which was have numerous free shows on television to set up a handful of "major" events each year on PPV.

Either way, the future of the UFC's PPV efforts will be determined in 2012 in large part due to its events and brand being showcased to millions on FOX.

Global Ultimate Fighter Shows

For the first time in UFC history, country-specific Ultimate Fighter tournaments will be taking place.

The first is set to happen in Brazil between teams coached by Wanderlei Silva and Vitor Belfort, while a UK vs. Australia version is also being planned for 2012.

A series of global Ultimate Fighters is UFC president Dana White's dream, and we'll finally be able to see how and if it will work.

If successful, it'll bring the UFC and MMA to new heights across the globe. If unsuccessful, it'll leave egg on the face of the UFC and Dana White; it'll be the NFL Europe of MMA.

Legalization of MMA in New York

The UFC has done fine without New York and if MMA was never made legal there, nobody outside the Tri-state area would notice.

However, the legalization of MMA in New York still has a considerable amount of prestige attached to it, as does New York's most famous venue, Madison Square Garden. 

To ensure the sport's legalization, the UFC has recently filed a lawsuit against the New York State government.

A confident Dana White has gone so far as to guarantee that MMA will be made legal in New York in 2012, so the sport may finally come to the Empire State and show the rest of the non-MMA-following country that the sport has finally arrived.

The UFC's Feud with ESPN

Unless you've been vacationing in the Amazon or some other remote location recently, you've likely heard of the UFC's dispute with ESPN concerning ESPN's portrayal of the UFC and how the promotion pays its fighters.

The UFC has gotten this far without extensive coverage from ESPN, so it's doubtful that any burnt bridges with the alleged "Worldwide Leader in sports" will hurt the UFC's continued growth. 

The Injury Epidemic

Too many cards were ruined by injuries in 2011. Injuries could sink a lot of cards this year and in doing so hurt the UFC and MMA as a whole.

Unfortunately, the UFC hasn't provided an answer for this problem and likely won't do so in 2012 (although, in all fairness, there may not be an answer). 

Conclusion

The most important issue the UFC faces in 2012 will be pay-per-view buys.

It's likely that the UFC signed with FOX in order to use FOX broadcasts as commercials/infomercials for UFC pay-per-views. If this effort fails, then the UFC has peaked in growth within the US and continued global expansion is the only way the promotion can generate more revenue.

Fortunately, the blueprint for global expansion—global Ultimate Fighter shows—will be laid down in 2012. So if PPV buy rates continue to sag despite exposure on FOX, the UFC can just bring its product to more nations and establish a global MMA hegemony that rivals that of soccer.

2012 will make or break the UFC. Either FOX will save the product and catapult it to astounding heights, or this year will show that the UFC has saturated the market and must flee overseas to continue growing.

Whether the net outcome of the events of 2012 is positive or negative, the MMA world will be talking about what happens in this year for decades to come; it's the most important year in UFC history and it's not even a month old yet.

Follow @MattSaccaro