Ravens vs. Patriots: Why the AFC Championship Game Rests in Joe Flacco's Hands

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco doesn't have to be very good against the New England Patriots to earn his first Super Bowl berth.

But can he afford to be just average against one of the league's best quarterbacks in Tom Brady?

Much is being made of how the Patriots offense stacks up against the Ravens defense, but the matchup on the other side of the ball could have just as much of an impact—or even more of an impact—on the outcome of the game.

Your Average Joe

When Flacco is better than the league average of an 82.5 passer rating in 2011, the Ravens are a perfect 7-0. When he falls short of that number, they are 5-4. Clearly, the Ravens are capable of winning when he's not at his best, but if he's even a little below average, they're still almost a lock with a 10-1 record when he's above a 70 passer rating.

That being said, three of Baltimore's four losses came in games where Flacco was below a 70 passer rating, but that's been enough to get the Ravens by to this point.

Much is made of the fact that the Ravens defense faced just one top-10 offense this season, but equally important, the Ravens offense hasn't had to keep up with a top 10 unit either. In fact, the only time they did, they got blown out by the Chargers 34-14.

Barring a lights-out defensive performance such as the one they had against New England in the 2009 playoffs, the Ravens won't be able to afford settling for field goals. They did far too much of that in 2011, ranking a respectable 12th in scoring offense, but third in the NFL with 39 field goals attempts.

If that trend continues, the Ravens offense won't be able to keep tempo with a Patriots offense that scored on 66.7 percent of its red zone possessions.

But Flacco isn't up against Brady. He's up against the Patriots defense.

Will the real Patriots defense please stand up?

The big question about this unit is whether Saturday's dominance of the Denver Broncos was an indication of things to come. Defensive tackle Vince Wilfork wasn't ready to go that far.

"I think last week won't have anything to do with this week to be honest with you," Wilfork said, according to Patriots.com. "Our goal is to get better. We have to play better. We have to make more plays because each game you play it gets tougher and tougher especially when you're dealing with a ball club [like the one] we're going to face in the Ravens."

He did a great job of avoiding the question, but the difference was unavoidable: the Patriots played aggressive and looked better than they have all season. Sure, they made plays at times in 2011, but if they play against Baltimore as they did for the 16 games prior to facing the Tim Tebow-led Broncos, there could be some opportunities for the Ravens in the passing game.

New England's regular season average of an 86.1 defensive passer rating is alarming, and it's hard to believe that the Patriots have turned the corner on defense that quickly. Thus, the temptation may be there to put the ball into Flacco's hands early and allow him to get into a rhythm against a suspect Patriots secondary.

That may not be the best idea, but more on that later.

Under pressure, and putting the game in Flacco's hands

It remains to be seen whether the Patriots defense turned a corner, but if they play as they did against Denver, it could be a long day for Flacco, especially if they're able to get pressure with their front four.

"He will stand in there and deliver a good football if he has the time," Wilfork said, according to Patriots.com. "At times you see that and at times you don't see that."

Wilfork isn't the only former Miami Hurricane that feels that way. Ravens safety Ed Reed shared similar sentiments about Flacco's performance on Sunday.

"I think a couple of times he needed to get rid of the ball," Reed  said, according to Yahoo Sports. "It just didn't look like he had a hold on the offense."

Though this may be a somewhat harsh criticism headed into a championship game, he's absolutely right. Most quarterbacks struggle under pressure, but Flacco's problems have been magnified. The difference in his numbers under pressure vs. no pressure have been pretty alarming, according to Pro Football Focus.

Interestingly enough, though, teams didn't blitz him all that much—just 33.6 percent of the time.

That is likely a result of the presence of Ray Rice. Teams don't want to blitz too heavily because of the fear of a misdirection, draw play or shotgun hand-off of some kind.

What the Ravens must do

It may be tempting against the league's second-worst overall pass defense, but the Ravens can't afford to put the game in Flacco's hands from the start. They are a balanced offense, and to get away from that at this stage in the season would be foolish.

Rice has been one of the most effective and versatile backs in the NFL, but quite simply, when he gets 20 or more touches, the Ravens win (12-0); when he doesn't, they lose (1-4).

What's more, running the ball effectively will open up the rest of the field, as it will force New England to devote more resources to stopping the run. The Patriots gave up 639 yards rushing and 5.7 yards per carry against their final four opponents of the regular season.

ESPN analyst and former Ravens quarterback Trent Dilfer put it best according to Don Banks of Sports Illustrated:

"

You've got to be able to do enough, and the question out there is can they do enough if their defense gives up more points than they're accustomed to giving up? From a talent standpoint, I would say absolutely I think Joe is capable of doing enough. But I'm worried about the Ravens, that they'll try to be more than they are. As a quarterback, if you try to do too much, and play outside of your comfort zone, that's when mistakes happen. The danger is you cross that bridge between doing enough and too much, and that's when you become Kerry Collins throwing five picks in the Super Bowl.

 

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What the Patriots must do

The Texans blitzed on 20 of 32 dropbacks, but four of their five sacks came on plays where they didn't blitz. The Patriots will likely take a similar approach, as stopping Rice will be their top priority. They would much rather force Flacco to beat them than allow Rice to do so as he did in 2009 and has done all year.

Flacco has some weapons at his disposal, but he's not a deadly quarterback.The Patriots have made lesser quarterbacks look pretty good this year, though. Keeping more men in coverage is preferential on several levels, but the Patriots must get pressure with their front five, and can't afford to devote more than seven guys to stopping Rice.

Their best bet is to put it on Flacco to either reward his supporters or validate his doubters.

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter.