What College Basketball's Top 25 Have to Do to Make March Madness

With fewer than two months to go before Selection Sunday, college basketball’s best teams are jockeying for position in the NCAA tournament.

Many are already thinking about locking up top seeds, while others are still looking to sew up a spot in the Big Dance.

No. 20 UNLV has bounced in and out of the rankings more than once this season. Saturday’s heartbreaking loss to San Diego State puts the Rebels in a tough position, but there’s plenty of time for Mike Moser and company to earn an at-large bid or a conference championship.

Here's a look at the tournament hopes of each team in the ESPN/USA Today Top 25 and what they’ll need to do to put themselves in prime position for the Big Dance.

25. Illinois

The Illini don’t have nearly the NCAA tournament resume that their 15-3 record would suggest.

They don’t have any bad losses, but their most recent win—a five-point stunner over Ohio State—was also their first against a surefire tournament team.

Jan. 31 will be the beginning of the critical stretch of Illinois’ schedule, a two-week span that features meetings with Michigan State, Indiana and Michigan. Illinois will need at least one win, probably two in that sequence to feel secure in landing an at-large bid.

24. Harvard

As good as Harvard has looked this season, there might not be another team in the country with less margin for error.

Because the Ivy League doesn’t have a conference tournament, Harvard absolutely must win the regular-season championship to feel confident of a trip to March Madness.

The Crimson have only two games that approach being quality wins: a home victory over St. Joseph’s and a neutral-site win over then-ranked Florida State.

Without another high-level opponent on the schedule, Tommy Amaker's squad will be out in the cold if they have to hope for an at-large berth.

23. Saint Mary’s

The Gaels have crashed the Top 25 for the first time this season on the strength of a 21-point pounding they delivered to formerly-ranked Gonzaga a week ago.

That win leaves St. Mary’s at a gaudy 17-2, but it was also its best victory on an iffy schedule.

With BYU strengthening the WCC this season, St. Mary’s would probably be safe winning either the conference regular-season or tournament titles.

But if they falter and let the Cougars or Zags catch up in the regular season, they’ll probably see their at-large bubble burst.

22. Marquette

If Marquette hadn’t pulled off its epic comeback against Louisville—the Golden Eagles trailed 18-2, then won by 11—the chances are good that it would have fallen from the Top 25 altogether.

As it is, the biggest win of the season gives the Golden Eagles a huge boost to their tournament hopes.

Marquette has surprisingly few top teams left on its Big East schedule, so it’s imperative that they win in either their visit to UConn on Feb. 18 or their season-closing tilt with Georgetown.

Even with two wins there, the Golden Eagles will  need to avoid upsets by the likes of Villanova and Notre Dame if they want to make certain of a trip to the Big Dance.

21. Louisville

After a terrific start that featured wins over Long Beach State, Memphis and Vanderbilt, the Cardinals have hit a rough patch.

Their collapse at Marquette makes them 2-5 since their Big East opener against Georgetown, with the two wins against unimpressive St. John’s and DePaul.

Louisville needs to right the ship quickly (and with four straight games against unranked teams, that shouldn’t be out of reach), but that will be just the beginning.

Presuming that an upset of Syracuse in their home-and-home series is beyond Louisville’s reach, the Cardinals will be facing a must-win at home against UConn on Feb. 6 to avoid a nervous Selection Sunday.

20. UNLV

UNLV has the good fortune to have not only an obvious signature win (over North Carolina), but also a couple of strong supporting games—namely, victories over Illinois and Cal.

Still, if San Diego State (victors over the Rebels on Saturday) captures the Mountain West, UNLV won't be an automatic in as an at-large team.

The Rebels’ 16-3 record is strong, but the MWC is less so, and UNLV cannot afford to get upset by the Wyomings or Colorado States of the world.

If UNLV wins the second leg of its home-and-home with the Aztecs, though, a regular-season conference crown is a good probability (and will be good enough to land an at-large bid, if needed).

19. Michigan

Last night’s nail-biter over Michigan State gives the Wolverines their best win, but they’ll need to keep playing well in conference. A brutal stretch of five ranked teams in six games looms, starting on Jan. 29 at arch-rival Ohio State.

If the Wolverines can beat a tournament-caliber team on the road, that might be the last piece of their March Madness puzzle.

Failing that, though, home wins over Indiana and Illinois in February would probably lock up an at-large berth.

18. Creighton

Weirdly, Creighton’s NCAA Tournament hopes have nearly as much to do with San Diego State’s performance as with its own. The more the Aztecs win, the more valuable the Blue Jays’ victory in San Diego will become to the selection committee.

Excepting that game, Creighton’s non-conference schedule was soft, so a strong showing in the Missouri Valley is vital.

A regular-season title in that well-respected conference will be plenty. But if the Blue Jays don’t land either that or the tournament crown, they’ll slide into bubble territory.

17. Virginia

Last week’s heartbreaking loss at Duke was certainly a disappointment, but it provided plenty of reason for hope for the Cavaliers as well.

A strong showing on the road against one of the ACC’s preeminent teams should give underrated Virginia the confidence to roll over most of a weak ACC.

The Cavaliers don’t get another crack at the Blue Devils, but a win in either leg of their home-and-home with North Carolina would all but sew up a tournament bid.

Even failing that, though, a third-place finish in the ACC and even one win in the conference tourney should be plenty to send Virginia dancing.

16. San Diego State

Excepting only a Feb. 11 rematch with UNLV, San Diego State’s biggest remaining game tips off tonight. If the Aztecs can take care of surprising New Mexico at the Pit, they’ll be well on their way to another MWC crown.

As long as San Diego State finishes no worse than second in the conference, they’ll be in fine shape for the NCAAs thanks to a body of work that includes wins over UNLV, Cal, Arizona and Long Beach State.

In all probability, they’ll meet the Rebels a third time in the conference tournament championship, with both teams already having sewn up bids to March Madness.

15. Mississippi State

Through little fault of their own, the Bulldogs have seen a strong tournament resume slide thanks to the disappointing performances of Arizona and Texas A&M (both victims of MSU in the 2K Sports Classic).

With only a victory over West Virginia to hang its hat on, Mississippi State needs to make a strong showing in SEC play.

With most of their remaining conference schedule featuring disappointing squads like LSU and Auburn, the Bulldogs will need to avoid suffering any more upsets like their early-season home loss to Akron.

A win on the road against Vanderbilt Saturday or Florida a week later would be huge, but a couple of wins in the SEC tournament would also go a long way toward locking up an NCAA bid.

14. Florida

The Gators are to be commended for scheduling a tough non-conference slate, but unless Florida State or Texas A&M bounces back from a bad start, that tough schedule didn’t translate into any real signature wins.

Fortunately for Billy Donovan’s team, there are plenty of chances left for Florida to make a statement to the selection committee.

The Gators would be assured of an NCAA spot if they collect at least three wins in their five games with Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Alternatively, 20 wins and a winning conference record would be tough to argue with in the SEC.

13. Indiana

Even after two straight losses in conference play, it’s hard to see Indiana having to worry about making it to March Madness. The Hoosiers have already beaten three of the country’s best teams—Kentucky, Ohio State and Michigan—in a 15-3 start.

At this point, the real question for Indiana is how high a seed the team can manage. With winnable home games against Illinois and Michigan State remaining, it wouldn’t be impossible to see the Hoosiers climb to a No. 2 seed by season’s end.

12. Georgetown

Conference play has been good to the Hoyas, who’ve notched crucial victories over Louisville and Marquette in the Big East.

Combined with solid wins over Memphis and Alabama, those victories have Georgetown in good shape to earn an at-large bid.

A 20-win record against this schedule should be plenty for the selection committee, and Georgetown has a chance to do much better.

If the Hoyas can finish a sweep of Marquette and knock off UConn in D.C. on Feb. 1, they could easily find themselves with a No. 2 seed.

11. UConn

For all their gaudy ranking, the Huskies aren’t in nearly as strong a position for tournament seeding as you might think.

Their strongest wins are against Harvard and West Virginia (both in Storrs), and they’re saddled with terrible losses to Rutgers and Central Florida.

With five games left against ranked teams, the Huskies have an outside chance of playing themselves into a No. 2 seed, but slipping all the way down to a No. 5 isn’t at all out of the question.

The best scenario that seems plausible would have UConn beating Louisville and Marquette and winning a game or two in the Big East tournament to land a No. 3 seed.

10. Murray State

Obviously, Murray State wouldn’t be ranked anywhere near this high (or at all) if it wasn't among the two remaining undefeated teams.

That said, the Racers’ 18-0 start has been so impressive that even an upset in the Ohio Valley tournament might not eliminate them from NCAA contention.

If Murray State finishes the regular season at, say, 27-1 (a distinct possibility), they’d probably sneak into the Big Dance even without an OVC tournament title.

Any more than one loss against this weak conference, though, and the Racers will be headed to the NIT.

9. Michigan State

Even in spite of a heartbreaking loss at Michigan last night, the Spartans are in a great position to land a No. 2 seed, with an outside shot at a No. 1.

The latter prospect would require Michigan State to win the conference championship, but that’s far from out of reach with every team except Illinois having already lost at least twice in Big Ten play.

The Spartans have notched a signature win against Indiana and still have a rematch with the Hoosiers and two games with Ohio State left on the schedule.

Taking two out of those three games would give Tom Izzo’s team a convincing case for a No. 2 seed, even if Ohio State wins the conference. 

8. North Carolina

As bad as the outlook appears for North Carolina after its humiliating loss to Florida State, a No. 1 seed is still a real possibility for this team.

The Tar Heels have two games remaining against Duke, plus a likely third meeting in the ACC tournament final. Beating the Blue Devils for the conference crown would make it tough to leave North Carolina off the top line of the bracket.

The Tar Heels also face a must-win home-and-home series with Virginia, a crucial opportunity for a UNC team without a signature win thanks to Wisconsin’s fall from the rankings.

If North Carolina botches the Virginia games, or can’t take down Duke, they could land anywhere between a No. 2 and No. 4 seed (depending on whether the Tar Heels suffer any more upsets).

7. Kansas

A convincing win over Baylor on Monday has Kansas in the Big 12 driver’s seat. With a win in this surprisingly strong conference, the Jayhawks would be certain of a No. 2 seed with a chance at a No. 1.

Securing a top seed would probably require the Jayhawks sweeping their three remaining meetings with Missouri and Baylor.

Even if the Bears or Tigers come back to win the Big 12, Kansas still has a case for a No. 2—they’ve already beaten Ohio State and Kansas State—and won’t fall farther than a No. 3 seed.

6. Ohio State

The Buckeyes bounced back admirably from their loss at Illinois with a decisive home win over Indiana. That makes three top-notch opponents—along with Duke and Florida—who have fallen in Columbus this season.

A road win over Michigan or Michigan State will be key to securing a No. 1 seed for Ohio State. Regardless of those results, the Buckeyes have so many winnable home games remaining that they’ll have to work not to earn at least a No. 2 seed.

5. Missouri

Missouri put up a lot of gaudy numbers during its 14-0 start, but only Illinois looks like a signature win on the team’s schedule so far.

There’s ample time left—two games each with Kansas and Baylor remain—but the Tigers need to make a statement if they hope to earn a No. 2 or No. 3 seed.

Of course, Missouri could yet win the Big 12 and likely nail down a top seed in the process.

Until they get the job done against the conference’s two toughest front lines, though, the Tigers would do better to be thinking in terms of securing a No. 4 seed by winning their other Big 12 games.

4. Duke

With arch-rival North Carolina looking more vulnerable all the time, the Blue Devils are in a commanding position to win the ACC and earn a top seed. However, Duke will have to earn that spot by proving it can take down the Tar Heels head-to-head.

In all likelihood, anything short of an ACC title will prevent Duke from landing a No. 1 seed. Even in that event, though, it’s hard to see the Blue Devils slipping past No. 2.

3. Baylor

Baylor won’t have to wait long to bounce back from its 92-74 loss at Kansas on Monday. The Bears face No. 5 Missouri on Saturday in Waco in a game that will be huge for both teams’ seeding prospects.

Baylor still has every opportunity to stay in No. 1 seed territory by winning the Big 12 title (regular season or tournament).

With wins over San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, Mississippi State and Kansas State already on their resume, the Bears would have to fall off badly to wind up below a No. 3 seed in March. 

2. Kentucky

Kentucky’s only loss came by one point on the road, and the Wildcats already have wins over Kansas and North Carolina. Assuming they stay on the inside track for the SEC crown, the Wildcats are a sure bet to grab a top seed in the tournament.

If Kentucky does falter, they might slip as far as a No. 3 seed, but that would take a lot of things going wrong all at once.

Far likelier is that the Wildcats will land on the top line of the bracket even without a conference title, and the SEC tournament will be nothing more than icing on the cake.

1. Syracuse

Despite a typically soft start to their schedule, the Orange have already notched victories over Florida and Marquette.

Syracuse closes with a brutal month of February that sees it face UConn twice, Louisville (on the road) and Georgetown, plus Louisville again in the regular-season finale Mar. 3.

Obviously, if Syracuse manages to stay undefeated, they’ll still be the top team in the nation heading into March Madness. If they falter against that gauntlet of ranked teams, though, it’s not impossible that the Orange could slide to a No. 3 seed.