Jim Caldwell Fired: What It Means for Peyton Manning

"Just kidding, Jim. Clean out your office."

Sixteen days ago, the Indianapolis Colts saw their season end. They had the worst finish of any other NFL team at 2-14. Owner Jim Irsay cleaned out his front office, replacing Bill Polian at general manager with 39-year-old Ryan Grigson of the Eagles. But Colts head coach Jim Caldwell, who watched this team finish out of the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, kept his job. 

Or so we thought. Caldwell, with a 26-22 record after three seasons, was officially "released from his duties" today, as reported from the Colts website.

Irsay told the Associated Press that keeping Caldwell would be Grigson's decision, and that decision has apparently been made. The former Eagles director of player personnel made it clear last week that he would not be pulling a Reggie McKenzie and hiring "[his] own guy" just for its own sake. But Grigson's move here suggests that the Colts are ready for a fresh start. 

Jim Caldwell's prospects of staying in 2012 were buoyed by his relationship with Peyton Manning. Caldwell stayed out of Peyton's way, allowing his Pro Bowl quarterback to operate the offense largely as he saw fit. When Peyton's neck was injured, Caldwell and the Colts were hung out to dry. The coach's dismissal suggests that the star quarterback could be next. 

With Grigson sitting on the first overall pick in this April's NFL draft, he'll have the right of first refusal to Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, a player that, depending on who you ask, will be good enough to start day one for whatever team takes him. Luck's availability cuts the cost of releasing Manning significantly.

Luck presents a far better value to the Colts. Consider that the Colts would have to pay the 35-year-old Manning a $28 million bonus if he's still on the roster come March 8. The Colts could use that money to lock up Luck for four years with a fifth-year team option. Last year's No. 1 pick, Carolina quarterback Cam Newton, signed such a deal for $22 million.

You can do the math.