NFL Playoff Predictions: Projecting the Stars of AFC, NFC Championships
After an excellent weekend of divisional round playoffs, the NFL conference championship games are up next.
The New England Patriots host the Baltimore Ravens in a classic battle of explosive offense versus bruising defense, while the San Francisco 49ers take on the New York Giants in what is likely to be the best contest of the week.
All four teams boast some of the biggest names in the NFL, players who came through in a big way for their respective teams in their divisional wins. And they're all going to be major factors this week.
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The playoffs are a chance for otherwise marginal players to break out, but they're also an opportunity for the teams' best players to simply demonstrate what made them elite in the first place.
In the AFC championship game, there's one name that stands out above any other: Tom Brady, quarterback for the New England Patriots.
Brady, who passed for 5,235 yards, 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in the regular season, threw for 363 yards and six touchdowns in his team's 45-10 rout of the Denver Broncos this past Saturday night. He'll be the biggest factor in Sunday's championship game, whether the Patriots win or lose.
Brady has been up against strong defenses this season, but none can compare to the Baltimore Ravens squad in the playoffs. Brady will be under significant pressure on Sunday, and it's both how he responds to it and how well he can neutralize it that will determine the ultimate outcome of this game.
He won't be alone in the effort, however, as a quarterback is ultimately only as good as his receivers. Luckily for Brady, he has a number of talented players to throw to, and he will have to get them all heavily involved in a quick passing game that throws the Ravens defense off their rhythm.
Brady will need wide receiver Wes Welker and both tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski on the same page with him, but it's hard to imagine otherwise.
Gronkowski was the Patriots' leading receiver against the Broncos, with 10 catches on 12 targets for 145 yards and three scores, and Welker and Hernandez each had 55 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The tight ends have proven to be a mismatch for defense after defense, and it won't likely be different this week against the Ravens.
Brady will certainly throw for more than 300 yards and could have as many as four touchdowns. Gronkowski will again lead the Patriots receiving corps, but both Welker and Hernandez will make significant impacts of their own.
That's the core of the Patriots' offensive attack this season, and they're likely to go with what works against the Ravens on Sunday.
The NFC championship game is less cut-and-dry. The San Francisco 49ers host the New York Giants in a matchup between two teams many thought had no chance to advance this far.
The Niners did so by relying heavily on their seemingly unstoppable defense in the first half, but that alone didn't get the job done.
The defense forced two Saints fumbles and picked off quarterback Drew Brees three times, and though they held the entire Saints offense to low-yardage totals in the first half, they eventually allowed Brees to throw for well over 400 yards.
San Francisco had to turn to quarterback Alex Smith to clinch the win, and he stepped up in ways many thought he couldn't. Smith threw for 299 yards and three scores and didn't turn the ball over once. He also had a single 28-yard rush for a touchdown with just over two minutes left in the game that further extended the team's lead.
Smith will have to have yet another impressive performance on Sunday if the team is to beat the Giants. Against the Saints, he was assisted by tight end Vernon Davis, who caught seven passes for 180 yards and two scores.
Davis and Smith will need to be on the same page yet again this week, because heavily relying on running the ball won't be enough to lead them to a win. While I don't see Smith throwing for as many yards, I expect another pair of touchdown passes and zero interceptions in this contest.
Much like with the Saints, the 49ers will have to hope their defense is strong enough to hold down the Giants and their big-play passing game while putting up enough points of their own to keep a Giants win out of reach.
That's going to be difficult, with Giants quarterback Eli Manning having the best season of his eight-year career. Manning was 21-of-33 for 330 yards, three touchdowns and a lone interception against the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round and will likely have a similar showing against the Niners this week.
He will again have to rely on his most explosive receiver, Hakeem Nicks, if the team hopes to leave San Francisco with the NFC championship and a Super Bowl berth. Nicks had seven receptions for 165 yards and two scores against Green Bay.
Considering the way that San Francisco's defenders managed to get at the Saints receivers at the very moment they caught the ball, expect Nicks' numbers to be lower this week.
Yards after catch are at a premium when it comes to receivers facing the 49ers defense. His targets won't dip, to be sure, and he'll need to catch most of them that come his way, but it will be quite difficult for Nicks to make much out of his receptions.
As the playoffs wear on, it's not about marginal players breaking out and making names for themselves. It's about the teams' most reliable players continuing to be just that, making big plays for their respective teams, just as they did in the regular season.
Those are the players to watch this week. All should have a fairly good deal of success, but success is relative in this situation.
All the big plays in the world are meaningless if ultimately your team does not win.

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