Michigan Basketball: 5 Keys to Victory against Michigan State

The Michigan Wolverines are coming off of their worst loss of the season to Iowa on Saturday. Each of their four losses have come on the road, three of which have been against AP Top 20 teams. The Wolverines are now third in the Big Ten, with a 4-2 conference record.

Tuesday's home showdown against the Michigan State Spartans could not loom any larger. The Spartans have been one of the best teams in the country of late, winning 15 out of their last 16 games after back-to-back losses to Duke and UNC to begin the season.

No one has to remind any Michigan fan of how important this game is. With that said, here are five keys to victory for the Wolverines against the Spartans.  

1. Tim Hardaway Jr. Must Step Up

Tim Hardaway Jr. has been the go-to scorer for the Michigan Wolverines this season, and is leading the team with 15.7 points per game. However, in order for the Wolverines to take down the Spartans, they are going to need Hardaway Jr. to be great.  

In the four Michigan losses this season, Hardaway has averaged 13 points per game while shooting 31 percent from the field and a combined 3-of-24 from three-point range. This is a telling statistic for a few reasons. First, it means that the Wolverines tend to struggle as Hardaway Jr. struggles. And second, if Hardaway Jr. isn't making his outside shot, his overall game suffers.

Hardaway Jr.'s overall shooting percentage on the season is 43 percent, and 28.6 percent from the arc. If you take away three-pointers, Hardaway Jr.'s shooting percentage rises to 54 percent. Therefore, in order for him to be the most effective, he cannot just rely on the three-point shot. 

Hardaway Jr.'s mindset should be the following: attack the Spartan defenders off the dribble, take the ball to the basket and get into a nice rhythm. If he can get a few quick buckets at the rim and draw some early fouls on the Spartans, expect a big game from the Michigan SG.     

2. Efficient Outside Shooting

John Beilein's offense revolves around efficient outside shooting. Wolverine PG Trey Burke must control the flow of this game and create open shots for his teammates.

In the loss against Iowa, the Wolverines shot a miserable 20-of-52 from the field (38.5 percent) and 8-of-31 from beyond the arc (25.8 percent). This type of shooting performance is not going to get it done against a stingy Spartan defense, which limits opponents to an overall shooting percentage of 37.2.

Burke, Hardaway Jr., Zack Novak, Evan Smotrycz and Stu Douglass must get off to a fast start and knock down open jumpers. The Wolverines have to capitalize on every opportunity against the Spartans, which will keep the sold-out Crisler Arena crowd into the game.    

3. Evan Smotrycz Must Show Up

Evan Smotrycz was playing at a high level during the Wolverines' seven-game winning streak a few weeks ago. During these seven games, Smotrycz averaged over 13 points, nine rebounds and over a steal-and-a-half per game (including three straight double-doubles). 

However, Smotrycz's play has declined significantly since then. In his last five games, he is averaging 3.6 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, while shooting a horrendous 21 percent from the field and a combined 3-of-17 from three-point range. 

The Michigan Wolverines need Smotrycz to have a big game. As a 6'9" power forward who can shoot, he causes serious matchup problems for the opponent when he is playing well. Whoever guards Smotrycz must honor his outside jumper, which pulls an opposing big man away from the basket and increases the chances for an offensive rebound.

Look for Beilein to try and get Smotrycz involved early on some pick-and-rolls. Confidence is everything, and if Smotrycz can get some quick, easy buckets, he could have a big game.   

4. Jordan Morgan Must Stay Out of Foul Trouble

Jordan Morgan is the best low-post defender that the Wolverines have, and it will be imperative for him to play smart and to stay on the floor against the Spartans. Draymond Green is a force for Michigan State, as he leads the team in both points (15.8) and rebounds (10.1) per game.

With the glaring lack of depth at the power forward/center positions, Morgan must play smart basketball. If he finds himself on the bench with two fouls and 16 minutes to go in the first half, the Wolverines could be in for a rough day down on the block.    

5. Limit Turnovers and Second-Chance Opportunities for the Spartans

It's quite simple: The Michigan Wolverines cannot afford to give the Spartans second-chance opportunities. The Wolverines are undersized, and they must make it a point to box out Draymond Green, who is one of the best rebounders in the Big Ten (10.1 per game overall, 2.5 offensive). Michigan State is fifth in the country in rebound margin, averaging 10.3 more rebounds per game than their opponent, thus Michigan has a tough task ahead of them. 

The Wolverines must do everything possible to keep the Spartans off of the glass. Limiting offensive rebounds means limiting possessions.    

The Wolverines are averaging 12 turnovers per game compared with Michigan States' 14. If Michigan can win the turnover battle, they can take full advantage of the Spartans' mistakes.