NFL Playoff Picks: What Each Underdog Must Do to Pull off Upset

Every underdog in the second round of the NFL Playoffs has a surprisingly simple key to pulling off the upset, proving the oddsmakers wrong. Still, if they don't follow those keys, they're not going to have a chance.  

Spreads according to Sportsbook.

Game	Spread
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers	Saints (-4)
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots	Patriots (-13.5)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens	Ravens (-7.5)
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers	Packers (-7.5)

San Francisco 49ers - Run it

The Saints have the third worst passing defense in the league, but that's only going to be exploited if the 49ers establish a running game against the Saints' running defense, which was 12th in the NFL during the regular season. The 49ers had the eighth best rushing offense in the NFL. 

The 49ers' winning the running game is key because it means that they've won the battle of strengths on offense. That would also open the field up more for Alex Smith to pass. While the 49ers are the fourth worst passing offense in the league, the Saints were the third worst passing defense in the NFL during the regular season.

Lastly, running the ball well is key because it keeps Drew Brees and the Saints' offense on the bench.

Denver Broncos - Challenge the secondary

Tim Tebow torched the Steelers for 316 yards on Sunday. Pittsburgh has the best passing defense in the league, while the Patriots ranked 31st out of 32 teams. If Tebow is capable of making big plays with his arm against the Steelers, he can do so against New England. 

The Broncos were at their best against the Steelers in the second quarter when they were aggressive. That's when they scored 20 of the 23 points that were scored in regulation. In the third and fourth quarters, Denver was tentative and the Steelers crept back into the game.

Facing a healthy quarterback and the NFL's third best scoring offense, the Broncos will need to keep the assault on for four quarters. That means more passing. 

Houston Texans - Get Andre Johnson involved

This game is in Baltimore, and against a more superior defense than the one the Texans faced a week ago. What this means is that Andre Johnson will need to be an even greater part of the offense than he was. 

The Ravens' defense is good enough to key on Arian Foster if the Texans don't establish a better passing attack. Houston's passing attack won't be great if they don't make Andre Johnson a factor.

Physically, he matches up well with the Ravens' secondary. He's the only player on the Houston offense that the Ravens will have a hard time matching up against.

Also, when the Ravens beat the Texans earlier in the season, Johnson didn't play. That's a key note, because injuries have hit the Texans in a big way since. Still, Johnson is the one player they didn't have to prepare for, or deal with.

New York Giants - Don't throw interceptions

It sounds so simple, but nothing in this game is as important as Eli Manning protecting the ball. He had a fantastic season but threw 16 interceptions, compared to six for Aaron Rodgers. 

This game will be dominated by the offense. It will come down to which team makes a few big plays on defense. If Manning turns the ball over, it will mean that the Packers are not only stopping the Giants, but also probably working with a short field on offense. 

That's true for the Packers as well, but Rodgers is not the turnover threat that Manning is. The proof of that is when the teams met earlier in the season. Manning threw an pick six to Clay Mathews, and the Packers won by three points.

Predictions: 

49ers 23, Saints 21

Patriots 41, Broncos 24 

Ravens 20, Texans 13

Packers 37, Giants 24

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