NFL Playoff Picks: Home Teams Will Dominate Weekend's Action

The one thing you can say about these playoffs is that the home fans have left the stadiums happy. They were 4-0 in Wild Card Weekend. That luck is not going to change this weekend. The divisional round will offer the same home cooking that the first round did. 

In three of the four games, the home team is the much better team and would win anywhere. In the other, the home field makes all the difference, which gives us a great place to start.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco pass rush is elite. Them getting in the face of opposing quarterbacks has led to 23 interceptions, tied for the second most in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers are first in the league in turnover margin. At home, they're first in the league by nearly a full turnover per game. 

That and special teams will be what makes the difference. A returning Ted Ginn will give the 49ers a shortened field to work with. The Saints will out-gain the 49ers and score more touchdowns, but San Francisco will score more points. 

Drew Brees is playing some of the best football that a quarterback has ever played, but there's a way to beat him. You need to get in his face early and take advantage of mistakes. Nobody does that better than the 49ers. 

Prediction: 49ers 23, Saints 21

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

New England's offense scores too many points for the Broncos to keep up with. If you ever need a week of action to describe these teams, look at Week 17. The Patriots hosted the Bills, fell down 21-0 and won 49-21. Meanwhile, the Broncos allowed only seven points to the Chiefs, yet lost. 

While the Broncos' win over the Steelers was an upset that few could have predicted, it was not surprising. The Steelers were a beaten-up team, unable to sustain any consistent offense. To top all of that off, the game was in Denver. The Broncos have none of those things at their advantage this week.

The offensive gap is going to be too much to overcome. The Patriots defense is far from stellar, so the Broncos will put up some points. But unlike the 49ers against the Saints, the Broncos defense is not stellar, and they don't have the offense to consistently take advantage of opportunities.

Look for a high-scoring game here, but it won't be close in the end. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense strikes too fast and too often. Tim Tebow won't keep up with that.

Prediction: Patriots 41, Broncos 24 

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens don't often lose games that come down to defense. At home, they don't lose any games. They've already beaten a healthy Texans this year. This game will produce a similar result. 

When the Ravens have the ball, they have just enough big play talent to force the Texans to respect the pass. Joe Flacco will do a better job finding those targets than Yates will do finding his, specifically Andre Johnson. That will also allow Ray Rice the room needed to control the game and break the right amount of big plays. 

While he did win last week, T.J. Yates doesn't command that type of respect. More importantly, the Ravens defense is loaded. What that means is that they won't need to bring extra pressure up front to stop Arian Foster. They can still keep players back to guard against the Texans' weapons, notably Andre Johnson.

Houston's defense will keep the game close, but the Ravens will win it. Their defense gets a slight edge over Houston's, and the offense is immensely better. 

Prediction: Ravens 20, Texans 13

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

What the Giants lack is a good secondary, which will be too much to overcome against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' receivers. They're not going against Matt Ryan this week. 

The Packers have too many weapons to focus on. What separates Green Bay is that you can take their top receivers out of the game and they can still put up 35 or more points. 

I know that the Giants have the team built for the upset. They have an incredible pass rush and a big-play offense. That sounds well and good, but the Packers are going to win this one. 

The Giants do have a big offense and will score some points, just not nearly enough. The Packers defense will do well enough to create some separation. Green Bay will move on in its quest to repeat. They have a better offense than the Giants and have a more opportunistic defense. 

That's what will make the difference. The Giants will get their sacks, but they won't be anything more than that. Aaron Rodgers does not turn the ball over. When the Packers pressure Eli Manning and force early passes, he's still turnover prone. That plays into the hands of the Packers' ball-hawking defense. 

Prediction: Packers 37, Giants 24

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