NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Three of these four matchups are rematches from the regular season, which gives us a good barometer of how some of these divisional playoff games might pan out.

Of course, this is the playoffs, which means that the standard logic does not apply. 

And since we have New England, Baltimore and Green Bay hosting playoff games this weekend, it's safe to suppose that weather could play a part in any of those games.

San Francisco, conversely, is expecting a high of 58 degrees on game day.  Nobody's perfect.

So, upon which teams do we invest our most precious tangible assets?  Did we go with the 'dogs for all four games this weekend? 

Will Tim Tebow play (or pray) his Broncos into the AFC title game?  Will Ray Lewis eat TJ Yates?  Did I remember to pay the electric bill?

Enough chatter.  Let's pick some games. 

SAN FRANCISCO +3 over New Orleans

I don't know what it is about the Niners that allows them to force their opponents into defensive slugfests; only four of their 16 regular season opponents scored more than 20 points. 

And they're only allowing 10.9 points per game at home.

That's a good thing, because their red-zone offense is awful.  We've been over this.  Alex Smith has had a good season for Alex Smith, but he has left a lot of points off the board. 

No team has kicked more field goals inside of 30 yards than the 49ers have this season.

So do we just take the Saints again?  Drew Brees struggles on the road and on grass.  That is, he puts up numbers that would be struggling for Drew Brees. 

He throws about one touchdown less and about half an interception more when playing on the stuff that grows, resulting in a quarterback rating swing from 118 to 95.

The Saints are playoff-tested, but this figures to be another close game by the Bay. 

Those three points look pretty good right now.

Denver +13.5 over NEW ENGLAND

This is an insane line for a playoff game.  Just insane.  Sure, blowouts happen in the playoffs. 

But Tim Tebow is awful (and was awful when these teams met in Denver three weeks ago, taking four sacks while throwing for only 194 yards). 

Two touchdowns?  Damn, Vegas.  How do you really feel?

Let's take a quick look at what this Denver defense did last week against a nearly-crippled Ben Roethlisberger. 

They gave up exactly 400 yards in total offense, and 17 second half points.  Steelers' backup running back Isaac Redman ran for 121 yards.

Compound that with the fact that Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker has an MCL sprain, and we have good reason to believe that Tebow's magic carpet ride will end this weekend in Foxborough.

I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 41-31, Patriots.  That won't be enough to cover the spread.

Houston +7.5 over BALTIMORE

The Baltimore Ravens are the most balanced team in this tournament.  The champs of the AFC North have depth and excellence at every position, save one: quarterback. 

Joe Flacco realizes he's the weak link in this chain, and so do we.  The Flac Attack has produced at least one interception in three of his last four games. 

But here's some good news for Ravens fans: Your defense is still awesome, having finished the regular season ranked second against the run, and fourth against the pass.

Houston has been able to run the ball seemingly at will this season, but managed only 93 yards when they met the Ravens in October in a 29-14 loss.  That was with Matt Schaub at quarterback. 

Can TJ Yates succeed where Schaub failed?

Yates will have help; the Texans' defense doesn't exactly suck.  They were able to contain Cincinnati's Cedric Benson in the Wild Card Round, keeping him under 100 yards rushing. 

JJ Watt's rumble to glory was one of three picks on the day in that game. 

Houston can keep it close here, even if they fall just short of their first ever AFC Championship berth.

New York Giants +8.5 over GREEN BAY

This line has already crept down to 7.5, but the original logic still holds.

Eli Manning and the Giants have won at Lambeau before, having done so in 2008 on their way to winning Super Bowl XLII.  Since then, the Packers have won their own Super Bowl.

And by the way, Aaron Rodgers might have been the greatest player in the league this season.

That said, I see a lot of similarities between this year's Giants and that 2007 team. 

Victor Cruz brings the big play capability that we saw out of Plaxico Burress, and Jason Pierre-Paul is the latest in a long line of Giants defensive ends a la Michael Strahan. 

And, of course, Giants coach Tom Coughlin has danced on and off the hot seat more than any other coach in the league during that span.

These teams also met about a month ago in the regular season, and the Giants took the defending champs down to the wire. 

Look for more of the same in the weekend's best matchup.