NFL Playoffs 2012: Wild-Card Powerhouses Sure to Stumble in Divisional Round

And so it is with a heavy heart that I admit I was 1-3 on my Wild Card Weekend predictions, a mark I would be more ashamed of if the nation—nay, the universe—hadn't been shocked by Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos' stunning upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And now I find myself in a precarious situation, for I don't believe a single one of those three teams will win a divisional-round game.

But look where doubting the Broncos, Houston Texans and New York Giants got me this week?

I'll give you the reason I think those teams will stumble this week, along with a reason they could surprise me yet again.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Why the Broncos will lose: When these two teams met in Week 15, the Patriots smoked the Broncos 41-23. Like most teams this season, Tom Brady and the Patriots offense was too much for them to deal with.

And the Broncos have struggled this season against prolific passing attacks. From NFL.com:

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The one thing Tebow and the Broncos haven't been able to do is keep up with the league's elite passers. Denver has faced four QBs currently ranked in the top 10 in yards passing—Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers (twice) and Brady. They're 1-4 in those games.

"

If you would like to add Ben Roethlisberger to that list—Pittsburgh's quarterback finished ninth in passing yards this season—then Denver is 2-4 in that regard. Though I might put an asterisk given that Roethlisberger was playing on one good leg and was rendered less effective by his weakened mobility.

I simply don't think the Broncos offense can keep up with a healthy Patriots passing attack.

Why the Broncos might win: Early in that Week 15 game, the Broncos dominated, taking a 17-6 lead behind 167 rushing yards and scores on their first three drives.

But they were undone by three turnovers in the second quarter.

If Denver can have similar success running the ball, control the clock and win the turnover battle, they might just shock the Patriots. But it's a tall order.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Why the Texans will lose: Baltimore beat them in Week 6, though the Texans were without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. They had Matt Schaub, however.

Baltimore is simply superior on both sides of the ball to the Bengals, a team the Texans crushed in the Wild Card Round. They have the league's second-ranked rush defense (and third-ranked defense both in yards and points allowed) and a more balanced offensive attack than the Bengals.

The Texans will put forth a valiant effort, but look for the Ravens defense to be in attack mode on obvious passing downs against T.J. Yates and force him into turnovers.

Why the Texans might win: Their fourth-ranked rush defense might be able to shut down Ray Rice and force Joe Flacco to try and win the game in the air.

I've mentioned this before, and I'll mention it again: In the Ravens' four losses this year, Rice averaged nine carries and 39 yards per game. In wins, he averaged 21 carries and 101 yards.

Shut down Rice, and the Texans have a puncher's chance of sneaking by the Ravens in a defensive struggle.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

Why the Giants will lose: Because Aaron Rodgers plays for the Packers. Because the Packers don't need to run the ball to be effective like the Falcons clearly do. Because in a game I believe will be very tight, the tide will likely turn on which team is able to force more turnovers.

The Packers are plus-24 in turnover differential this year. The Giants are plus-seven. Solid marks by both teams, but the advantage goes to Green Bay.

Can Eli Manning and the Giants offense keep up with Rodgers in a shootout? They almost did in their Week 13 loss to the Packers, 38-35.

But that was in New York. Things will be different at Lambeau.

Why the Giants might win: If the Giants can sustain pressure on Aaron Rodgers with their front four and drop seven into coverage, they will have a shot at slowing down the Packers offense or perhaps forcing the ever-rare errant throw by Mr. Rodgers.

Rushing for 174 yards and controlling the clock for 34 minutes like they did against Atlanta wouldn't hurt, either—though Rodgers and company are a bit more quick-hitting through the air than Atlanta was.

But ultimately, whether or not Eli Manning can hang with Rodgers will probably decide the outcome. If Manning gets in the zone, the Giants should make things very interesting in Green Bay.

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