2025 Men's NCAA Tournament: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams

Life on the men's NCAA tournament bubble is a roller coaster.

While no individual result truly defines a resume in a 30-game season, it certainly can feel that way in February and March. Every big upset can bring a wave of relief, but that optimism can vanish just as quickly on the heels of an unexpected loss.

At this point of the season, 20-some programs are on this rickety ride. Today, we're updating a half-dozen notable situations.

They're up, they're down—and sometimes they're both.

Each selection is based on results from the last two weeks of action, dating back to the final stretch of January.

Up: Texas Longhorns

David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Arthur Kaluma

The beginning of SEC action—a stretch at Texas A&M and home to Auburn and Tennessee—didn't go well. Texas A&M won a lopsided game, and Texas couldn't quite spring an upset in the latter games.

However, the Longhorns have responded in recent weeks and jumped to the correct side of the bubble.

They upended both Missouri and Texas A&M in late January, dropping a tight finish at Ole Miss before picking up a win at LSU to open February. Texas now holds a more respectable 4-6 mark in Q1 contests.

Losing to Arkansas on Wednesday doesn't help, but that result won't send the Horns plummeting back out of the field.

Down the stretch, a deep group of March-worthy SEC foes gives Texas plenty of chances to further build an at-large case.

Neutral: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Hunter Sallis

Marquee wins can rapidly bolster a resume of a bubble-dwelling team, and bad losses can sting quickly.

Wake Forest hasn't really hit either side of that conversation.

Late in January, the Demon Deacons fell to Duke and Louisville in consecutive Quadrant 1 matchups. Those setbacks are sandwiched in the middle of a six-game winning streak and recent win against Pitt, though.

For the season—as of this writing—Wake is just 1-6 against Q1 opponents yet a perfect 15-0 otherwise.

Wake Forest has a very favorable remaining slate with its toughest games at Duke, at SMU and...home to Florida State or Virginia? This is a huge month for the Deacs to rack up some victories.

But it also means, beyond the trip to Duke, Wake is more looking to avoid bad results than finding a massive win.

Down: Georgia Bulldogs

Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Asa Newell

Georgia's losses, as singular games, are not devastating.

When you start playing the best of the best without a break, however, those setbacks can begin piling up rapidly.

Such is the case for UGA, which screamed out to a 14-2 record with victories over Kentucky and Oklahoma. The team climbed as high as a projected No. 7 seed in bracket projections from B/R's Kerry Miller.

Tennessee and Auburn ended the Dawgs' hot streak, but they haven't recovered. Losses at Arkansas and Florida followed, then a home win over South Carolina was merely a respite for Georgia in advance of a blowout loss at Alabama moved UGA to 15-7.

Georgia is still in the consensus Bracket Matrix field following a win over LSU, though only narrowly as a No. 11 seed.

The upcoming gauntlet of Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Auburn and Florida could be a make-or-break moment for UGA.

Up: BYU Cougars

Andrew Wevers/Getty Images

Richie Saunders

BYU isn't suddenly an NCAA tournament lock, but the program is no longer just lurking on the horizon.

After an overtime loss at Utah in mid-January, the Cougars put together a hot streak of four straight wins. They rolled past Colorado and Cincinnati, edged Baylor in overtime and beat UCF on the road.

The surge was especially impactful because, prior to it, BYU had a single victory in Quads 1 and 2 combined. Now, the Cougs have five.

Granted, the reality for BYU is climbing into at-large contention is simply part of the battle. Big 12 powers Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State remain on the docket, as does a home-and-home against West Virginia.

But without those recent wins, we would hardly be talking about BYU.

Neutral: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Soobum Im/Getty Images

Brice Williams

Nebraska is a prime example of the roller coaster.

Losses to USC and Wisconsin in late January pushed the Cornhuskers' skid to a dismal six in a row. That 12-2 start to the campaign had become nothing but a distant memory as Nebraska fell to 12-8 and largely faded out of March Madness projections.

But then the Huskers defeated Top 25 teams in consecutive games: they toppled Illinois in overtime and Oregon on the road.

Now that's a way to halt a problematic slide.

Navigating the rest of the schedule won't be easy—Maryland, Michigan and two clashes with Ohio State await, for example—but Nebraska is back in the perilous bubble discussion thanks to its upset wins.

Down: Pitt Panthers

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Ishmael Leggett

Duke is a monster, but the remainder of the ACC—as mentioned with Wake Forest—is very disappointing this season.

Pitt, subsequently, has a razor-thin margin for error.

Unfortunately for the Panthers, though, they haven't been able to avoid a crushing loss. The home setback to Virginia to open February placed a glaring mark on the resume, and Pitt then narrowly missed a chance for a quality ACC win in a two-point loss at Wake.

There simply are no marquee games left for Pitt, which is already an unsightly 1-5 against Q1 teams.

In short, the Panthers need to win everything at home and snag a couple of the tougher road trips to North Carolina, SMU and Louisville. That, or they'll be desperate for a deep run in the ACC Tournament.