The 8 Teams Fans Should Be Blaming for Dodgers' Domination in MLB Free Agency
Are the Los Angeles Dodgers dominating in free agency because it's a game only they can win? Or is it because nobody else wants to play?
Well, what if both things are true?
There is merit to the notion that the Dodgers have become too powerful. To follow a $1 billion 2023-24 offseason with a World Series championship and a subsequent haul of Blake Snell, Rōki Sasaki, Tanner Scott, Teoscar Hernández, Blake Treinen, Michael Conforto and Hyeseong Kim is a flex upon a flex upon a flex.
Then again, this take from erstwhile Dodger Jack Flaherty is also valid:
This take is so valid, in fact, that it's worth taking the time to call out this winter's biggest underachievers in free agency.
There are eight that stand out, and this is for three reasons. For one, their contention windows are open. For two, we know from Forbes that their revenue streams are nice and thick. And for three, their estimated 2025 payrolls are weirdly small.
Before we get to wagging a finger at these eight clubs—who will be arranged in descending order of their spending so far—let's touch on some honorable and dishonorable mentions.
Note: Estimated payrolls and free-agent spending are courtesy of FanGraphs.
Honorable and Dishonorable Mentions
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Honorable Mentions
This grouping is reserved for the biggest non-Dodgers spenders of the winter, and they are:
- New York Mets: $946.6 million
- New York Yankees: $235.5 million
- Arizona Diamondbacks: $210 million
- San Francisco Giants: $197 million
- Toronto Blue Jays: $140.5 million
- Texas Rangers: $136 million
You especially have to hand it to the Diamondbacks. Nobody had them as the winners of the Corbin Burnes sweepstakes, yet they stretched their budget to do a franchise-record $210 million deal with the ace right-hander.
It's otherwise hard to fault either New York team. The Mets reset the bar with Juan Soto's $765 million deal, while the Yankees responded to that gut punch with a $218 million pact with Max Fried. The latter is a record for a left-handed pitcher.
Dishonorable Mentions
As to the other end of the spectrum, here are teams that have spent nothing in free agency:
- Miami Marlins
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Minnesota Twins
- St. Louis Cardinals
And here are ostensible contenders who have spent very little:
- Cincinnati Reds: $23.6 million
- Tampa Bay Rays: $8.5 million
- Pittsburgh Pirates: $8 million
This is not a surprising list, given that we're talking about three low-revenue teams that typically don't spend in free agency. This is especially true of the Pirates, who are dead-last in MLB for free-agent spending dating back to 1991.
All the same, what we have here are seven teams that are giving the free-agent market the cold shoulder. That is 23 percent of Major League Baseball, and it is not OK.
Baltimore Orioles
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Estimated 2025 Payroll: $156.3 million
Estimated 2025 Luxury Tax Bill: $0
2023 Revenue: $328 million
Free-Agent Spending So Far: $96 million
OK, fine. It's not as if the Orioles have totally sat out free agency.
A little more than half of their $96 million splurge went just to Tyler O'Neill, who inked a three-year, $49.5 million deal in December. Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Andrew Kittredge have also gotten eight-figure sums from Baltimore.
It is nonetheless fair for Orioles fans to want more right now, and not just because the franchise has spent the past six seasons among the dregs of MLB for payroll.
This is the Orioles' first offseason under new owner David Rubenstein, whose net worth is estimated at $4.1 billion. The only acceptable explanation for his lack of bigger spending is that he's saving it for contract extensions, but none of those have materialized either.
What They Can Still Do
By far the biggest need in Baltimore is for a No. 1 starter to fill the space that Corbin Burnes occupied before he bolted for Arizona.
At this point, pickings are slimmer than they used to be. But there is still Jack Flaherty, and interest between him and the Orioles was said to be mutual on New Year's Eve.
Flaherty's first stint as an Oriole in 2023 didn't go well, but that was before he reclaimed his top-of-the-rotation creds with a strong 2024 season. And at this point, you have to figure he could be had for a relative discount.
Atlanta Braves
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Estimated 2025 Payroll: $212.3 million
Estimated 2025 Luxury Tax Bill: $0
2023 Revenue: $473 million
Free-Agent Spending So Far: $55 million
The Braves must have caught wind that I had them in my sights, as I was writing the first draft of this piece when they struck for Jurickson Profar.
The outfielder's deal is for three years, $42 million. That is nearly as much guaranteed money as the Braves reportedly offered right-hander Jeff Hoffman before they walked away over concerns related to his physical.
Even still, the Braves' estimated payroll is roughly $20 million below what they spent in 2024. And while their estimated $230.3 million luxury tax payroll paints a different picture, that still puts them south of the $241 million threshold for penalties.
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said in December that the club is willing to stray into tax territory for a third straight year. This is the right attitude to have amid a contention run that has already yielded seven playoff berths and a World Series title.
What They Can Still Do
Though Profar fits nicely in left field, it's still hard to ignore the holes left by Max Fried and Charlie Morton in Atlanta's rotation.
This may be why the Braves wanted Hoffman, though it's hard to imagine them offering the money they had earmarked for him to someone else after the Profar signing. If they're going to add a starter, it may have to be for a relative bargain.
If they're not scared of his ties to draft pick compensation, Nick Pivetta is a stuff maestro who would be a good get.
Boston Red Sox
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Estimated 2025 Payroll: $170.8 million
Estimated 2025 Luxury Tax Bill: $0
2023 Revenue: $500 million
Free-Agent Spending So Far: $52.3 million
By now, it feels like forever ago that the Red Sox had the highest payroll in the league in 2018 and 2019.
They opened with the 12th-highest payroll in both 2023 and 2024, which serves as a fact-check on owner John Henry's remark from February 2023 about "a false narrative that we somehow stopped spending."
After the club's "full-throttle" false start last winter, this was supposed to be the offseason that the Red Sox finally flexed their financial muscles again. The initial promise is that not even the $241 million luxury-tax threshold would be a barrier.
Yet Boston remains roughly $30 million below said threshold. Especially given how close this team is to being a legit contender after an 81-81 season and additions of Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler, it's a frustratingly large gap.
What They Can Still Do
Though the Red Sox have holes in their bullpen where Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin used to be, what they really need is a right-handed bat for a heavily left-handed lineup.
They're a fit for Alex Bregman, who could perhaps shift to second base in deference to Rafael Devers at third base. And if his 1.240 OPS at Fenway Park isn't worth noting, nothing is.
The only other option of note is Pete Alonso, though there hasn't been much in the way of rumors connecting him to Boston.
Chicago Cubs
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Estimated 2025 Payroll: $181.6 million
Estimated 2025 Luxury Tax Bill: $0
2023 Revenue: $506 million
Free-Agent Spending So Far: $50.3 million
If you're a Cubs fan who's in the mood to be angry, wait 'til you get a load of what owner Tom Ricketts said at the team's annual convention.
"I don't think fans should spend all their time thinking about which team has more money or how much they're spending," Ricketts said in an interview with 670 The Score, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "It just becomes a big narrative that's a distraction.''
Sorry, Tom, but it's not a "narrative" that the Cubs aren't spending enough. When you juxtapose those revenues with those expenses, it looks a lot more like a fact.
Like the Red Sox, the time is right for the Cubs to go big. They have a clear pathway to the top of the NL Central after adding Kyle Tucker in a blockbuster trade, but they need more if they aspire to challenge the Dodgers.
What They Can Still Do
The Cubs could use at least one more reliever, and Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that they have Ryan Pressly, Kenley Jansen and David Robertson in mind.
It's also possible that the Cubs could land one of the bigger fish remaining on the market, be it Alex Bregman or Jack Flaherty.
Washington Nationals
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Estimated 2025 Payroll: $109.6 million
Estimated 2025 Luxury Tax Bill: $0
2023 Revenue: $355 million
Free-Agent Spending So Far: $34 million
As they're coming off a second straight 91-loss season, the Nationals are the black sheep on this list. But that's their fault, and it specifically belongs to Mike Rizzo.
"I think we need to improve ourselves in any avenue we can," Washington's general manager said upon the conclusion of the 2024 season. "Free agency will certainly be one of the avenues that we'll attack to improve."
There was even a familiar playbook for the Nats to follow. By way of an influx of young talent led by top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, the '24 squad bore a resemblance to the 2010 team that ultimately got upgraded with Jayson Werth.
A repeat of that maneuver might have put the Nationals on the fringes of the wild-card race. Since the team has only made ripples, 2025 is instead looking like another rebuilding year.
What They Can Still Do
Then again, maybe the Nats have been slow to act because they were awaiting a windfall.
As reported by Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, there's been a committee resolution that the Orioles and MASN owe the Nationals $320.5 million in TV rights fees for the 2022-2026 seasons. That includes $203.9 million in backpay.
Assuming this money solidifies in a timely manner, the Nationals may yet make an aggressive move. As they ranked last in the NL in home runs in 2024, they're an ideal on-paper fit for Pete Alonso.
Detroit Tigers
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Estimated 2025 Payroll: $111.1 million
Estimated 2025 Luxury Tax Bill: $0
2023 Revenue: $306 million
Free-Agent Spending So Far: $30 million
Following their long-awaited return to the playoffs in 2024, we were led to believe that this was not going to be a quiet winter for the Tigers.
As Jared Ramsey of the Detroit Free Press told the tale, president of baseball operations Scott Harris gave an "emphatic "yes" when asked last October if he was going to have financial support from team owner Chris Ilitch.
And why wouldn't he? Amid their rebuild, the Tigers operated with payrolls well below their capacity between 2018 and 2024. Previously, they had peaked with the second-highest payroll in MLB at $199.8 million for the 2017 season.
Detroit fans therefore have every reason to feel underwhelmed that the Tigers have signed only two free agents, with Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres each getting a mere one-year, $15 million deal.
What They Can Still Do
It's simple: Sign Alex Bregman.
The Tigers and Bregman have been dancing around each other for what feels like the whole offseason, with Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reporting Tuesday that talks are now "at a standstill."
The Tigers have much to gain from bridging whatever gap still exists between the two sides, and not simply because Bregman is still good for 4-5 WAR. He's also a winner, and few people know that as well as his once-and-possibly-future manager, A.J. Hinch.
Seattle Mariners
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Estimated 2025 Payroll: $145.4 million
Estimated 2025 Luxury Tax Bill: $0
2023 Revenue: $396 million
Free-Agent Spending So Far: $3.5 million
The Mariners are on a string of four straight winning seasons, and their payroll has increased each year. That figures to happen again in 2025 even if no additions are forthcoming.
At least in the abstract, though, this is arguably the one franchise in MLB that should be throwing caution to the wind right now.
What the Mariners already have includes the best pitching staff in the American League, plus an offense headlined by a superstar (Julio Rodríguez), a franchise catcher (Cal Raleigh) and a dynamic power-speed threat (Randy Arozarena).
It isn't a stretch to think that the Mariners are two pieces or even just one piece away from being a top contender for a World Series title. And that, of course, is something that the franchise has yet to achieve in 48 years.
What They Can Still Do
The Mariners have an obvious need at third base, but MLB.com's Daniel Kramer says they are "not in the sweepstakes" for Alex Bregman.
Hypothetically, at least, there's time for this to change. And perhaps even a means as well, as the Mariners could clear $24.2 million in payroll space if they find a taker for Luis Castillo.
Alternatively, ownership could dig deeper into its pockets and blow Bregman away with an offer. It probably won't happen, but it shouldn't be too much to ask for.
San Diego Padres
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Estimated 2025 Payroll: $208.3 million
Estimated 2025 Luxury Tax Bill: $327,236
2023 Revenue: $345 million
Free-Agent Spending So Far: $0
The Padres like to play the tough guy in their rivalry with the Dodgers, so surely they have designs on doing something literally anything to counter the latter's big moves, right?
It doesn't seem like it for now, though the picture looked much different a week ago when the Padres had a real shot at Rōki Sasaki. That obviously didn't pan out, and it's unclear what Plan B is supposed to be.
Because the Padres are set to slightly surpass the luxury tax, Plan B might even have to wait until they cut payroll first. To this end, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported that Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Robert Suarez and Jake Cronenworth have received trade interest.
Then again, it bears noting that the Padres reset their tax penalties in 2024. Even if they boosted their tax payroll by roughly $20 million to $261 million, their tax bill would only come to a measly $4 million.
What They Can Still Do
Now that Jurickson Profar is gone, the Padres' hole in left field is even more glaring. They also need a starter to account for Joe Musgrove's recovery from Tommy John surgery.
At least on paper, Alex Verdugo is a solution for the first problem. For the second, the Padres are another team that could attempt a buy-low move on Nick Pivetta. Max Scherzer would be a fun fit as well.
As for what the Padres will do, likely the only certainty is that it won't be nothing. That isn't president of baseball operations A.J. Preller's style.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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