Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline
Major League Baseball hasn't even officially announced what day the 2025 trade deadline will be on, although considering July 31 falls on a Thursday this year, that's probably a good bet.
Obviously, we don't yet know what teams will be buyers and sellers, and to what extent. A year ago, the Milwaukee Brewers looked likely to be a trade deadline seller, only to win 93 games and capture the NL Central title. So while we can identify some teams that look like obvious buyers and sellers in January, nothing is set in stone.
With all that acknowledged, here are some way-too-early predictions for the 2025 MLB trade deadline, which if nothing else, should provide some fun banter.
St. Louis Cardinals Trade Ryan Helsley to Texas Rangers
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The Cardinals have acknowledged they are taking a step back in 2025, which makes it perplexing that they've held onto All-Star closer Ryan Helsley.
It's entirely possible he'll still be at the top of his game the next time the Cardinals are ready to contend in 2026 or 2027. But he's a 30-year-old that regularly throws 100+ mph and will be a free agent after the 2025 season—he seems like an obvious sell-high candidate if you don't plan to contend this upcoming season.
Helsley did just win the Trevor Hoffman Award as the best reliever in the National League, which may make it a tough sell to the fanbase to trade him right now. Perhaps the Cardinals will let the first half of the season play out before deciding how to proceed with Helsley, because even in what seems like a transition year, it's possible they are competitive in the wide-open NL Central.
The most likely scenario, though, is that the Cardinals field offers for Helsley—who recently indicated that he hasn't been approached about a contract extension—this summer and move him to a contender before he potentially departs in free agency.
2024 was a disappointing season for the Texas Rangers after they won the first World Series title in franchise history in 2023. In what projects to be a relatively weak AL West, they should rebound in 2025, particularly if two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom can finally stay healthy.
To this point, though, Texas has not re-signed their top two relievers from a year ago in Kirby Yates and David Robertson. 2023 World Series hero José Leclerc left to sign with the division-rival Athletics. General manager Chris Young has added veteran reliever Chris Martin, but it looks clear right now that if the Rangers are contending at the deadline, high-leverage relief will be a major area of need.
If not the Rangers, the Baltimore Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks are among other contenders who could make sense as landing spots for Helsley.
Toronto Blue Jays Trade Bo Bichette to Atlanta Braves
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We're going to guess that the Blue Jays either reach a long-term extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before Opening Day or allow him to play out his full contract season and try to re-sign him after the year, knowing they can extend a qualifying offer to him at the least. Whether the latter would be a smart strategy is another discussion.
But are they going to have both Guerrero and Bichette possibly reach the open market? If the Blue Jays are legitimate contenders in 2025, then yes. But they finished last in the loaded AL East in 2024, and while Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman and Andrés Giménez are nice additions, they may not be enough to close the gap in baseball's deepest division.
Bichette has publicly talked about wanting to remain with the Blue Jays long-term, but USA Today's Bob Nightengale wrote something rather ominous earlier this offseason.
"Bichette is as good as gone, with no real interest in returning, friends say," Nightengale wrote.
Perhaps Nightengale got bad intel or Bichette's friends don't have an accurate idea of what he's thinking. What's more likely is that Bichette is playing somewhere else in 2026, and the Blue Jays work this summer to get something more in return for their star shortstop than draft compensation.
Obviously, Bichette will have to rebound after posting a .598 OPS in just 81 games a season ago. But he was a hitting machine between 2021 and 2023, posting a .298 batting average with 555 hits, 103 doubles and an .815 OPS. If that version of Bichette re-emerges in 2025, teams will be lined up to trade for him, even if questions have always existed about him as a defender at shortstop.
For now, it appears that the Braves will go into 2025 with Orlando Arcia as their shortstop. While Arcia is a pretty solid defender, the former All-Star posted an underwhelming .625 OPS in 2024. Arcia can play his way out of the Braves being in the market for someone like Bichette, but he has his work cut out. It's unclear whether Bichette would be a long-term piece in Atlanta or just a rental, but either way, his addition would help them to compete both to win the NL East and to make a deep playoff run.
Of course, recent history tells us that if the Los Angeles Dodgers target someone, they'll probably get him. If some combination of Mookie Betts, Hyeseong Kim, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor isn't enough to hold things down in the middle infield, maybe the rich will get even richer and add Bichette.
Miami Marlins Trade Sandy Alcántara to San Diego Padres
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Sandy Alcántara is returning from Tommy John surgery but had the procedure in October of 2023. By the time Opening Day 2025 rolls around, he should be good to go.
So while the Marlins apparently informed Alcántara last summer that they would hold onto him this winter, there's no reason to believe that president of baseball operations Peter Bendix won't try to strike the second that the former NL Cy Young Award winner's trade value returns.
Between 2019 and 2022, Alcántara was one of the premier starters in baseball, posting a 3.07 ERA and leading the sport in innings pitched at 673.2. He pitched nine complete games between 2022 and 2023, a pretty staggering mark in today's game.
Whether Alcántara is immediately a 200+ inning pitcher again this season, he's proven to be a workhorse. He's still only 29 years old. The two-time All-Star is signed to a team-friendly contract that will pay him $34.6 million total over the next two seasons, with an affordable $21 million club option for 2027.
That controllability at a relatively team-friendly price will open up Alcántara to more than just the usual suspects if the Fish choose to trade him this summer. Of course, the usual subjects will also be there, and trading for Alcántara feels like such an A.J. Preller move. If Dylan Cease is traded this spring, Alcántara would replace his presence in the rotation. Even if Cease is retained for his contract year, adding Alcántara would give the Padres an ace in their rotation beyond 2025, assuming Cease leaves in free agency after the season.
What could also transpire is that the Padres trade for Alcántara, keep him through the 2026 season and then after picking up his $21 million option for 2027, they shop him in advance of what would be his contract year. That seems to be the blueprint that Preller follows.
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Tampa Bay Rays Trade Yandy Díaz to Cincinnati Reds
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The Rays have elected to hold onto Yandy Díaz to open the 2025 season, but they have a challenging campaign ahead of them.
Not only are they competing in a division with four other teams who have playoff aspirations, but they will have to play their home games at George M. Steinbrenner field in Tampa after Hurricane Milton destroyed Tropicana Field. Between July and August, the Rays will play just 16 home games. It feels like the chips are stacked against Kevin Cash's squad before the season even begins.
Between the challenges of playing their home games at a minor-league stadium and having an uncertain future in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, the guess here is that the Rays are going to end up selling at the deadline and planning for brighter days ahead.
If so, Díaz is going to be a popular trade target for teams looking to upgrade at first base. Across the last three seasons, Díaz has hit .302 with an .836 OPS, including winning the AL batting title in 2023. He's making $10 million in 2025, and his contract includes an affordable $12 million club option for 2026.
A team like the Reds that's hoping to contend but doesn't like to spend a ton of money would be a perfect landing spot for Díaz. As we noted previously in this article, the NL Central is wide open, and there's no reason that under new manager Terry Francona the Reds couldn't emerge as a serious contender after a disappointing 2024. The Reds need to add another big bat, and Díaz would be a clear upgrade at first base over Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who could be a change-of-scenery candidate that heads back to Tampa in return.
Los Angeles Angels Trade Taylor Ward to Philadelphia Phillies
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It's a tale as old as time: The left-handed-heavy Phillies looking for a right-handed-hitting corner outfielder in advance of the trade deadline.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tried and failed with Austin Hays last summer, due at least in part to some extenuating circumstances. After non-tendering Hays, the Phillies signed Max Kepler to a one-year, $10 million this offseason. They are hoping for a bounce-back year from the long-time Minnesota Twin. Perhaps they will get it, but Kepler's recent injury history is enough to give you pause, and he's a left-handed hitter.
The projected Opening Day lineup for the Phillies includes five left-handed hitters in Kepler, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. Perhaps a player like Weston Wilson will emerge as a legitimate platoon option in the outfield, but it feels like the Phillies need another right-handed bat for when they inevitably end up in big games against tough lefties like Chris Sale, Sean Manaea and Blake Snell.
Taylor Ward would make sense for the Phillies, considering he's coming off a season with the Angels in which he hit .325 with an .873 OPS against left-handed pitching. He could be a platoon partner in left field with Kepler. He could also seize the left field job altogether if Kepler struggles and/or isn't healthy.
Additionally, both Kepler and Kyle Schwarber can become free agents after the 2025 season, so having Ward—who has one final year of arbitration eligibility in 2026—in the fold could give the Phillies either their starting left fielder or right fielder, if Nick Castellanos shifted to DH in the event Schwarber departs.
Ward has been speculated upon as a trade target for the Phillies in each of the past two summers. Perhaps the third time will be the charm, and he'll be dealt from Anaheim to Philly.
Athletics Trade JJ Bleday to Kansas City Royals
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Admittedly, this one is a bit more of a shot in the dark than some other deals on this list. But the Royals made out well in completing a trade with the Athletics for Lucas Erceg last summer, and could go back to that well again.
Kyle Isbel is an elite defensive center fielder, but hit just .229 with a .654 OPS last season. If you're going to go with a glove-first option in center field, you need to make up for the relative lack of offense in the corner outfield spots.
As of now, Hunter Renfroe (.689 OPS in 2024) is projected to be the starting right fielder for the Royals, with MJ Melendez (.700 OPS in 412 MLB games) in left field. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic previously reported that both Jonathan India and Michael Massey were willing to play some in left field, which is perhaps something the Royals will explore this year. But right now, this is an outfield that looks really thin offensively, and a lineup overall that projects to be far too reliant on Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino.
JJ Bleday is a former top-five pick who finally looked the part with the A's last year after struggling early in his career with the Marlins. Bleday doubled 43 times in 2024, adding 20 home runs and 60 RBI. He's the primary center fielder for the A's, but had minus-19 defensive runs saved at that spot in 2024. However, in 2023 Bleday had five DRS for the A's in left field.
Acquiring Bleday would add another impressive bat to the lineup in Kansas City, and he would benefit greatly from shifting to left field on a full-time basis. The Royals may have to pay a bit of a premium to acquire the 27-year-old, but he won't become arbitration eligible until 2026 and can't become a free agent until after 2028, so Kansas City would have him for a few years then.
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