Projecting MLB Contender or Pretender for These 8 Confusing Teams
Now that we're officially a few days into the new year, who else already has the 2025 MLB postseason on the brain?
Based on "To Make the Playoffs" odds via DraftKings, there are eight teams with a "Yes" line somewhere between +130 and -130, implying a "Your guess is as good as ours" stance by the sportsbooks.
So, let's make those guesses now that the free-agency cycle has mostly run its course. (A few mighty big names still out there, though, which could change these odds considerably before spring training.)
We'll run down the noteworthy offseason roster moves made by each of those eight teams, giving one reason to buy and one reason to sell before providing a contender/pretender verdict.
Contender doesn't mean you should bet the house on them winning the World Series, nor does Pretender mean that team will rival the Chicago White Sox for worst record in the majors. It's simply one man's opinion on whether each of these coin flips will ultimately make the postseason.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order by location. And here's hoping you like the AL Central, because half of these teams hail from that confusing division.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 8
Offseason Roster Moves of Note: Lost Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, Kevin Newman, Josh Bell, Paul Sewald and Scott McGough in free agency; signed Corbin Burnes; traded Slade Cecconi for Josh Naylor
Reason to Buy: Holy rotation, Batman
With a big four of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery, Arizona was supposed to have one of the best rotations in baseball last season.
It didn't work out that way, with Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson actually leading the team in innings pitched, but there were already high hopes that the Diamondbacks' rotation would be back with a vengeance in 2025.
Then they went and signed Corbin Burnes and goodness gracious. Now they could trade away Montgomery for a bag of peanuts, slide Nelson into a long relief role and still have maybe the best 1 through 5 in all of baseball.
This on top of already leading the majors in runs scored in 2024.
Reason to Sell: Bullpen leaves much to be desired, and they lost some serious weapons from the lineup
Starting first on the lineup front, Christian Walker was a major loss after three consecutive seasons both winning the Gold Glove and posting an OPS north of .800. The DH platoon of Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk was also sensational last season, and this offense might take a significant step backward without them.
As far as the bullpen goes, maybe Arizona can get by with a primary trio of AJ Puk, Justin Martinez and Kevin Ginkel, but there are definitely question marks once opponents manage to get the starter out of the game.
Verdict: Contender
If forced right now to bet on anyone to win the 2025 World Series, it's hard to argue with Arizona at +3000.
The Snakes still have a ton of weapons on offense, and rolling out Rodriguez and Kelly at No. 3 and No. 4 in the rotation is ridiculous.
It's still 50/50 whether they'll make the postseason, though, with the Dodgers expected to win the NL West and all of the Mets, Phillies and Braves expected to make it again out of the NL East.
But this team should be doggone good—especially if Corbin Carroll can find his groove before the All-Star break this time around.
Cleveland Guardians
2 of 8
Offseason Roster Moves of Note: Lost Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb and Carlos Carrasco in free agency; traded Andrés Giménez and Nick Sandlin for Spencer Horwitz and subsequently traded Horwitz to Pittsburgh for three pitchers, including Luis Ortiz; Traded Josh Naylor for Slade Cecconi; traded Eli Morgan for a prospect; re-signed Shane Bieber and Austin Hedges; signed Carlos Santana
Reason to Buy: Still a mighty fine bullpen
In the entire American League in 2024, there were five pitchers who logged at least 60 innings with a sub-2.00 ERA: Texas' Kirby Yates and Cleveland's quartet of Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin.
The Guardians have that whole gang back together again for the upcoming season.
Can they possibly be that good again, combining for 21 wins, 75 holds and 48 saves? If so, Cleveland ought to comfortably repeat as division champs.
Reason to Sell: Lost two key pitchers and two key position players
Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd only made 11 regular-season starts for Cleveland, but they combined to start five of the Guardians' 10 postseason games. Both were acquired over the summer, almost on a whim to try to combat the poor state of this rotation beyond Tanner Bibee, and both are gone now.
So are Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez, both of whom were getting too expensive for Cleveland to afford. It ended up paying Carlos Santana almost as much as it would've needed to pay Naylor in his final year of arbitration, though, so that was strange.
And while 2024 No. 1 pick Travis Bazzana is the future at second base, giving up Giménez's platinum glove without a particularly strong plan at the position for 2025 could be a major problem.
Verdict: Pretender
If Ben Lively manages to repeat what he did last season and if Shane Bieber makes it back from Tommy John surgery before the All-Star break, maybe Cleveland can run it back again.
But the Guardians have one sure thing in their rotation (Bibee) and have traded away two of what were their four or five most valuable position players from last season in the name of saving some coin.
Not expecting them to crash and burn, but the AL Central might be headed back to its usual role of no wild-card teams, and (spoiler alert) Detroit is my pick to win the division.
Detroit Tigers
3 of 8
Offseason Roster Moves of Note: Signed both Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres to one-year, $15 million deals
Reason to Buy: Best pitcher in baseball, great bullpen and a star in LF
Tarik Skubal is a bona fide ace. Riley Greene has yet to really peak, but he is already providing a ton of value. And while the bullpen isn't exactly a who's who of household names, it was the driving force of their shocking surge to the 2024 postseason.
That's a solid foundation, and there's a lot of young, budding talent beyond that already established nucleus. Kind of felt like they arrived a year ahead of schedule and could take a bigger leap in 2025.
Reason to Sell: Limited lineup pop and rotation depth
Detroit ranked 29th in the majors in OBP last season and 24th in total home runs. And though Gleyber Torres is a nice pickup, he's hardly a game-changer in those departments for them. They need more out of Colt Keith this year, as well as whomever the Tigers end up primarily rolling with at 3B, RF and SS.
It's also not a great sign that Detroit's second-most valuable starting pitcher last season was the one it traded away just ahead of the deadline (Jack Flaherty).
There's plenty of potential beyond Skubal, particularly in the form of Jackson Jobe. But there's a reason the Tigers used openers so frequently during their incredible run over the final two months.
Verdict: Contender
The overall state of Detroit's rotation is certainly concerning. If Skubal were to follow in Gerrit Cole's footsteps from last season and miss the first 12 weeks of the season following a spring training injury, things could unravel in a hurry for the Tigers.
But what if Skubal stays healthy and so does Kerry Carpenter for a change? While Keith and Jobe deliver on the promise of entering last season as highly touted prospects and Parker Meadows doubles down on what was a phenomenal final two months of last season?
The Tigers already have something percolating, and there's a reasonable expectation they'll make at least one more splash of an offseason acquisition to become the favorite to win the AL Central.
Kansas City Royals
4 of 8
Offseason Roster Moves of Note: Lost Michael Lorenzen, Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel, Garrett Hampson, Will Smith and Adam Frazier as free agents; re-signed Michael Wacha; traded Brady Singer for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer
Reason to Buy: Bobby Witt Jr. and a stout rotation
Seth Lugo finished second in the AL Cy Young vote. Cole Ragans landed in fourth place. And Michael Wacha had a third consecutive solid campaign. All three of those starters will be back for at least one more season, playing second fiddle to 2024 batting champ and AL MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr.
That Big Four paced the Royals to their astounding 30-win improvement from 2023 to 2024.
Reason to Sell: The other 85 percent of the roster
The Royals do have some solid role players beyond that main quartet, but can Salvador Perez still be "second-best offensive weapon" good in his age-35 season?
Is there a single outfielder presently on the roster that they'd miss if he didn't make the Opening Day cut? What about the 65 or so starts that won't be made by one of Lugo, Ragans or Wacha? Or the bullpen in general?
Last season's improvement was mesmerizing, but it also felt quite smoke-and-mirrorsy, both in the moment and in hindsight.
Verdict: Pretender
If you thought Kansas City was going to double down on last year's roughly $400 million offseason spending spree—extending Witt, and signing more than $100 million worth of contracts in free agency—think again.
The Royals have yet to sign anyone new. And while trading for India and Wiemer does at least give them a little boost in the "aside from Witt" portion of the offense that was a colossal question mark throughout last season, they parted with one-quarter of their dominant starting rotation to make those additions.
If they end up signing an Anthony Santander or even an Alex Bregman, we'll strongly reconsider here. For now, though, this looks like a worse version of a team that would have had a losing record if not for going 12-1 against the walking dead (Chicago White Sox).
Milwaukee Brewers
5 of 8
Offseason Roster Moves of Note: Lost Willy Adames, Jake Bauers, Gary Sanchez, Colin Rea, Bryse Wilson, Joe Ross, Hoby Milner and Frankie Montas in free agency; traded Devin Williams for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin
Reason to Buy: Refuses to go away
Milwaukee wasn't supposed to be good this past season, seemingly admitting defeat when it traded away Corbin Burnes just a couple of weeks before spring training began.
Yet, this tiny-market franchise won its division for the fourth time in seven years, and it finished at least 10 games above .500 for the seventh time in the past eight years.
So, yeah, the Brew Crew lost Willy Adames, a two-time All-Star closer, three of last year's six leaders in innings pitched and a couple of role players from the lineup. They haven't done much to replace all that talent lost. But they still have a bunch of talented hitters/defenders, and could have quite the rotation with the addition of Nestor Cortes and the return of Brandon Woodruff.
It just might be enough to win the division again.
Reason to Sell: Adames' shoes too big to fill
Maybe some offenses can lose a 32 HR, 112 RBI, 21 SB shortstop and not skip a beat, but does anyone believe the Brewers are one of those offenses?
In Adames' stead, they're likely to shift Joey Ortiz from 3B to SS, backfilling at the hot corner with a revolving door of Oliver Dunn, Brock Wilken and Andruw Monasterio.
If both Brandon Woodruff and Christian Yelich return to action as good as new, maybe Milwaukee can survive that major change on the left side of the infield.
If not, though, the Brewers are going to have a hard time keeping pace with the Cubs and/or Reds in the NL Central.
Verdict: Contender
Adames is a big loss, but Milwaukee isn't exactly devoid of viable All-Stars. The rotation should be better, and a lineup anchored by William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and a maybe healthy Christian Yelich could rank among the best in the majors for a second straight season.
Mostly, though, I'm not sold on the Cubs being much better than last year, so the Central might still run through Milwaukee.
Minnesota Twins
6 of 8
Offseason Roster Moves of Note: Lost Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer and Caleb Thielbar to free agency; Alex Kiriloff retired
Reason to Buy: Has quite a bit of talent, when healthy
Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are all incredibly gifted athletes who could be a key cog of any offense in a hypothetical 162-game season. And 2022 first-round pick Brooks Lee is dripping with star potential, though he struggled in his initial run in the majors this past season.
On the mound, the starting trio of Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober can be/has been solid, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa could make this a great rotation, and the late-inning trio of Griffin Jax, Cole Sands and Jhoan Duran can be lethal.
The trick is keeping those key pieces healthy...
Reason to Sell: Hasn't done a single thing this offseason to improve
Of the 17 players who made at least 100 plate appearances for the Twins last season, five are no longer on the roster. That includes Carlos Santana, who led the team with 23 home runs. It also includes Kyle Farmer, who, if nothing else, could play any position under the sun for a team that always seems to have trouble staying healthy.
To combat those losses from its 82-80 offense, Minnesota has done...absolutely nothing, evidently irrationally confident that this is the year Buxton, Correa and Lewis are able to stay healthy and routinely appear in the starting lineup together—something that happened only 27 times last year and 13 times in 2023.
Verdict: Pretender
In the near-two full calendar years since both re-signing Carlos Correa and trading Luis Arraez for Pablo López, Minnesota has done a whole lot of nothing. It spent less than $8 million last offseason, hasn't spent anything this winter and made no trades worth mentioning at either of the past two deadlines.
All that complacency in watching key players leave and not bothering to replace them has caught up to a team that finished fourth in the AL Central last season and may well be destined for the same spot this year.
Seattle Mariners
7 of 8
Offseason Roster Moves of Note: Lost Luis Urías, Justin Turner, Josh Rojas, Jorge Polanco, Austin Voth and JT Chargois in free agency
Reason to Buy: Best starting rotation in baseball
There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of the Mariners trading away Luis Castillo and the three years, $72.45 million left on his contract, but they would still have a darn fine rotation if they made that budgetary decision.
George Kirby was an All-Star and a Cy Young vote recipient in 2023. Logan Gilbert checked both of those boxes in 2024. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo both arrived in a huge way this past season. And there's hope Emerson Hancock can make a similar leap this year.
Seattle tied with Atlanta for fewest runs allowed in 2024, and is currently positioned to bring back basically that entire staff.
Reason to Sell: Can't hit
Seattle got run prevention down to a science, but manufacturing runs was a wildly different story, even with Cal Raleigh belting 34 home runs and driving in 100.
Long story short, replacing Eugenio Suárez, Teoscar Hernández, José Caballero and Jarred Kelenic with Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and a platoon at third base went about as poorly as it could have gone, exacerbated by Julio Rodríguez posting a .616 OPS through Seattle's first 88 games.
The Mariners have done nothing to address the problem, though, save for letting Polanco walk and cutting both halves of their 3B platoon.
Verdict: Pretender
It was too little, too late, but Seattle's offense turned a corner in a big way last September, posting a .780 OPS and averaging 5.2 runs per game.
A sign of things to come, perhaps?
If Rodríguez can get into a groove before mid-July this year, he, Raleigh, Luke Raley and Randy Arozarena ought to be a solid nucleus. Maybe J.P. Crawford bounces back from what was a brutal year at the dish. It's possible Victor Robles continues to provide good value. Perhaps one of the young'uns (Ryan Bliss, Tyler Locklear or Cole Young) makes some serious noise, too.
It just feels like a lot needs to go right for a team that hasn't done anything to get better this winter—in a division where the Rangers, Angels and A's have all been aggressively working to improve.
Texas Rangers
8 of 8
Offseason Roster Moves of Note: Lost Andrew Heaney, Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, José Ureña, Max Scherzer, Carson Kelly, Andrew Chafin and Travis Jankowksi in free agency; re-signed Nathan Eovaldi; signed Joc Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, and five relievers; traded Nathaniel Lowe for Robert Garcia; traded three prospects for Jake Burger
Reason to Buy: Busy, busy, busy former champs
It was a disappointing year for the Rangers, dealing with all sorts of injuries en route to missing the postseason by an eight-game margin. But they've been as busy as any team this offseason, working diligently to fill the gaps and make a one-year-delayed defense of their crown.
The net result is a team that—at least on offense—could be elite.
If everyone is healthy on Opening Day, the Rangers are likely to have all of Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran, Leody Taveras and Kyle Higashioka as pinch hitting options. Ridiculous.
Reason to Sell: Do they have enough quality pitching?
Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Kumar Rocker each made just three starts last season, the former two due to injury and the latter only making his MLB debut in mid-September. But now they are three-fifths of the planned rotation, alongside 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray in the final year of his four-year, $56 million contract.
You would think a team that knowingly spent the first half of last season waiting for three starting pitchers to get healthy would have added at least one pitcher this offseason instead of just moving on from losing two of them, but it didn't.
There's also little question that the bullpen is in even worse shape than last season after the Rangers lost all four of their primary relievers.
Verdict: Contender
Evan Carter and Josh Jung both missed more than 110 games. Only two pitchers managed to make at least 20 starts. And though Adolis García played in 154 games, his drop-off in production from the previous three years was massive. No team was more snake-bitten than this one.
With even a modest degree of injury luck, Texas should be back in business. And if they get a combined 400-plus innings out of deGrom, Mahle and Rocker, the Rangers might mess around and become the AL's No. 1 seed.
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