Bowl Predictions 2024: Projections and Odds For Playoff Bracket and Top Matchups

The first edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff brings a new dynamic to the sport's postseason.

The four first-round games take place on campus sites. The Texas Longhorns, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes will host contests on the weekend of December 20 and 21.

All four first-round hosts are favored by at least a touchdown at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ohio State is the smallest of the four favorites, but it is still projected to win by a touchdown.

The No. 9-12 seeds can be frisky underdogs in terms of the spread, but it may be hard for those teams to win outright on the road.

Bowl Schedule and Latest Odds

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EUGENE, OREGON - NOVEMBER 30: Quarterback Dillon Gabriel #8 of the Oregon Ducks celebrates a touchdown during their game against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium on November 30, 2024 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

College Football Playoff

Friday, December 20

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5) (8 p.m. ET, ABC)

Saturday, December 21

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (-8.5) (Noon ET, TNT)

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (-11.5) (4 p.m. ET, TNT)

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (-7.5) (8 p.m. ET, ABC)

Tuesday, December 31

SMU/Penn State winner vs. No. 3 Boise State (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Wednesday, January 1

Clemson/Texas winner vs. No. 4 Arizona State (1 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Tennessee/Ohio State winner vs. No. 1 Oregon (5 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Indiana/Notre Dame winner vs. No. 2 Georgia (8;45 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Thursday, January 9

Semifinal: Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Friday, January 10

Semifinal: Cotton Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Monday, January 20

Championship game (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Non-playoff bowl games

Tuesday, December 17

Frisco Bowl: Memphis (-5) vs. West Virginia (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Wednesday, December 18

Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (-7) (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

LA Bowl: California (-1) vs. No. 24 UNLV (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Thursday, December 19

New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern (-6) vs. Sam Houston (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Friday, December 20

Cure Bowl: Ohio (-3) vs. Jacksonville State (Noon ET, ESPN)

Gasparilla Bowl: Tulane vs. Florida (-14) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Monday, December 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA (-8.5) (11 a.m. ET, ESPN)

Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois (-3) vs. Fresno State (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Tuesday, December 24

Hawai'i Bowl: South Florida vs. San Jose State (-4) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Thursday, December 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pittsburgh (-7) vs. Toledo (2 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Kansas State (-7) (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

68 Ventures Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (-7) (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Friday, December 27

Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma (-7.5) vs. Navy (Noon ET, ESPN)

Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs. Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas (-1) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Holiday Bowl: No. 21 Syracuse (-8.5) vs. Washington State (8 p.m. ET, Fox)

Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. USC (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Saturday, December 28

Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. North Carolina (-2) (11 a.m. ET, ESPN)

Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Nebraska (-2.5) (Noon ET, ABC)

New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana vs. TCU (-12.5) (2:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 18 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Miami (-3.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Arizona Bowl: Miami (Ohio) (-2.5) vs. Colorado State (4:30 p.m. ET, CW)

Military Bowl: East Carolina vs. NC State (-5) (5:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Alamo Bowl: No. 17 BYU vs. No. 23 Colorado (-3) (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. No. 22 Army (-14.5) (9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Monday, December 30

Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. No. 19 Missouri (-3) (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Tuesday, December 31

ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 11 Alabama (-9.5) vs. Michigan (Noon ET, ESPN)

Sun Bowl: Louisville (-2.5) vs. Washington (2 p.m. ET, CBS)

Citrus Bowl: No. 15 South Carolina (-9.5) vs. No. 20 Illinois (3 p.m. ET, ABC)

Texas Bowl: Baylor (-1) vs. LSU (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Thursday, January 2

Duke vs. No. 14 Ole Miss (-14.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Friday, January 3

First Responder Bowl: North Texas vs. Texas State (-10) (4 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Duke's Mayo Bowl: Minnesota (-6) vs. Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Saturday, January 4

Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Liberty (-1) (11 a.m. ET, ESPN2)

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (-10.5)

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ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 07: Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) passes the ball during the SEC Championship game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Texas Longhorns on December 07, 2024, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Clemson is the largest underdog across the four first-round matchups.

The Tigers won the ACC title on Saturday, but they underperformed in all of their other matchups with Top 25 programs.

Clemson went 0-2 against the SEC. It was blown out by the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1 and lost by three to the South Carolina Gamecocks two weeks ago.

The only advantage Clemson holds in the matchup with Texas is Dabo Swinney's title-winning coaching experience. Swinney is one of two active head coaches, along with Georgia's Kirby Smart, to have won a national championship.

Texas' shortcomings came against Georgia twice in SEC play, and the lackluster offensive performances in both games stand out as its biggest weakness going into the CFB Playoff.

Quinn Ewers and Co. have playoff experience from last season, but they lost that game to the Washington Huskies.

Texas' offense played well against lesser opposition, but it did fail to eclipse the 20-point mark twice against UGA and against a ranked Texas A&M Aggies team.

That's the primary concern for Texas' chances of winning, and covering the 10.5-point spread.

Prediction: Clemson +10.5

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (-9.5)

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - DECEMBER 07: Penn State Nittany Lions QB Beau Pribula (9) runs the ball during the Big Ten Championship football game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Oregon Ducks on December 7, 2024 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

SMU and Penn State both dropped in the final CFB Playoff rankings because of losses in their respective conference title games.

The Mustangs and Nittany Lions each had strong seasons, but both teams did not beat a team ranked above 18th all season.

Each team displayed defensive flaws on Saturday. SMU gave up 34 points to Clemson and Penn State let up 45 points to Oregon.

Penn State's defense has been the better overall unit in 2024, and the home-field advantage in State College may help that unit control the SMU offense.

The Nittany Lions held their last six opponents to 20 points or less inside Beaver Stadium.

The defense, led by likely first-round pick Abdul Carter, should be the difference-making unit for Penn State.

Prediction: Penn State -9.5

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (-9.5)

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 30: Drayk Bowen #34 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish defends during the second half against USC Trojans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images)

The rare in-state battle between Indiana and Notre Dame takes place inside Notre Dame Stadium.

Indiana was the darling of the CFB season under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, but the Hoosiers failed to keep up with Ohio State in its most important game of the season.

The blowout loss in Columbus stands out when breaking down the matchup with a Fighting Irish team that thrived for most of the campaign.

Notre Dame's early loss to Northern Illinois more of an exception to the team's season-long form than anything.

The Irish won their last seven games by double digits, and based off Indiana's performance in Columbus, a similar fate could await the Hoosiers in South Bend.

Prediction: Notre Dame (-9.5)

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (-7)

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COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 30: Ohio State Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins (1) reacts during the game against the Michigan Wolverines and the Ohio State Buckeyes on November 30, 2024, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The closest game on paper is the No. 9-versus-No.8 game in Columbus.

Ohio State is a seven-point favorite over Tennessee, but there will be plenty of doubters in the Buckeyes after their disappointing home loss to Michigan two weeks ago.

Ryan Day's Buckeyes beat Penn State and Indiana and put up 31 points on Oregon, so there is precedent for how they'll play against a top-10 team.

Tennessee will go into Columbus with a freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and that could be a hindrance on the Vols.

Two of the Vols' three defeats this season came on the road at Arkansas and Georgia. They only scored 31 combined points in those two games.

Ohio State still has a strong defense, and if it shows improvement from the Michigan game on offense, it can take advantage of its home field and set up a rematch with Oregon.

Prediction: Ohio State -7

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