NFL Playoff Picks: Picking Each Game Against the Spread

The NFL playoffs are finally here.  Millions upon millions of dollars will be wagered (legally) on the four games this weekend.  After 16 games, there isn't much left that we don't know about the teams taking the field today and tomorrow.  Aside from some personnel issues here are there, all the information a gambling person could want has been laid out on the table.

Click through the slideshow for my picks against the spread for this weekend's NFL playoff games. 

Houston Texans -3 over Cincinnati Bengals

Much has been made of how the Texans limped into the playoff behind a rash of injuries and on the young arm of T.J. Yates.  However, I still like the Texans to win and cover for two main reasons.

First, if the Bengals win this weekend, it will be their first victory all season long against a playoff team.

Rarely has a team made the playoffs with nine less impressive victories than the Bengals have this year.  They have lost to good teams and beaten the not-so-good teams.  In Yates' second start this season, he put up great numbers against the Bengals en route to a dramatic 20-19 victory.  I refuse to pick any team in the playoffs, with such a tight line, that backed in without a single signature victory.

Second, Andy Dalton vs. Wade Phillips is not a matchup where I am inclined to pick the rookie QB on the road, in the playoffs, for the first time ever.  

Back from his surgery, Wade Phillips will very likely throw things at Dalton that will confuse him and force a few mistakes.  I think the Texans defense will do plenty to keep this game well in hand for the Texans offense to win it with low-risk passing and a rock-solid rushing attack.

Detroit Lions +10.5 over New Orleans Saints

In Week 13 of the regular season, the Saints beat the Lions by 14 points is a games that didn't necessarily feel all that close while you were watching it.  Simply put, I have almost no expectation of the Lions winning this game.

However, a 10.5-point spread borders on massive in the NFL playoffs, and that's simply too many points for me to spot a team with as much firepower as the Lions.  The Lions also did plenty to beat themselves in that first meeting with their 100-plus yards in penalties, a point which I'm sure head coach Jim Schwartz has made over and over again this week.

In the end, I expect a similar result as what happened between the Lions and Packers last week.  A back-and-forth shootout would certainly be a lot of fun to watch between these two.  I expect the Saints to win by a TD or maybe even 10 points, but no more than that.

New York Giants -3 over the Atlanta Falcons

This is the game I feel the least certain about the entire weekend.  I would almost feel better about the Giants on the road, as they have has a tendency to play with complacency at home in the playoffs.

However, Eli Manning has simply played too well this season late in games for me to go against him here.  I think this will be a very tight, back-and-forth game.  A Giants' win by three, and thus a push, looms large in my mind, but I'd rather be on the side of the Super Bowl rings when betting on playoff games, and in this matchup, that means going with the Giants.

I think the Falcons will struggle to keep Matt Ryan safe against the vicious defensive line of the Giants and that Eli Manning will be at his best when it matter the most.  Should be a great game though.

Denver Broncos +8 over Pittsburgh Steelers

As much as it kills me to go with Tebow, I cannot in good conscience pick a team that is as beat up and limited by injuries as the Steelers by more than a TD.  While I have thought all season and continue to think now, that the Broncos are frauds, there's just too much going on here against the Steelers to lay down that many points.

Since the ankle injury, Ben Roethlisberger has looked almost as bad as Tim Tebow.  No, scratch that: he's still nowhere near as bad as Tebow.  

Regardless, his final two performances against the 49ers and Browns are more than enough to lead me to believe that this game will come right down to the wire.

The Steelers will most likely still win the game, but I see the final margin being in the three- to four-point range.  The Pittsburgh offense is just too banged up in critical positions, and I think the Broncos defense is good enough to keep it close, especially if Roethlisberger doesn't take care of the ball and the Broncos pass rush can test his limited mobility.