New York Giants: 4 Keys to a Win over Atlanta Falcons, Plus Wild-Card ATS Picks

MetLife Stadium hosts its first postseason game on Sunday when the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants meet in the playoffs for the first time.

The Giants come in with momentum, winning three of their last four games following a four-game losing streak. That 3-5 second half was good enough to allow Big Blue to win the NFC East, clinching the division with a 31-14 win over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night.

The Giants’ finish has some evoking memories of the 2007 team’s Super Bowl run.

“I would not want to face the New York Giants in the playoffs right now,” running back Brandon Jacobs told Stats LLC. “I got the same feeling (that I had in 2007). There’s a lot of guys that are here that weren’t here a couple of years ago when we went, but it’s the same kind of feeling that I have.”

For Atlanta, this game marks the first time in franchise history the team has gone to the playoffs in consecutive years. However, after earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC in 2010, the Falcons were routed at home by the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan had his best season, throwing 29 touchdown passes. He also had career highs with 4,177 yards and a 92.2 passer rating. Receivers Roddy White and rookie Julio Jones combined for 2,252 yards and 16 touchdowns.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning fell 67 yards short of the 5,000-yard mark and was named to his second Pro Bowl. He also set an NFL record with 15 fourth-quarter touchdown passes. His 110.0 passer rating in the fourth quarter was the second best in the league.

The New York passing game got a big boost with the breakout year enjoyed by Victor Cruz, who was third in the league with 1,536 receiving yards. Cruz had two huge plays in the last two games—both Giants' wins—with a 99-yard touchdown reception against the New York Jets and a 74-yard score against the Cowboys.

New York is looking for its first playoff win at home since beating the Minnesota Vikings in the 2000 NFC Championship Game. Atlanta’s last road playoff victory was in the 2002 wild-card round at Green Bay.

I’ve identified four keys to the game for the Giants. Those keys follow, along with my wild-card round picks against the spread.

Protect Eli

Atlanta’s sack numbers aren’t great—just 26 in the regular season—but this is a good pass-rushing defense. John Abraham led the Falcons with 9.5 sacks but Atlanta can also zone-blitz. Their defensive tackles can penetrate and quickly move a drop-back passer off his spot.

The Giants’ offensive line has improved of late but is still plenty suspect and will have to play well.

Eli Manning, for his part, isn’t fast on his feet, but he knows how to move in the pocket and gets the ball out quickly.

Win the Physical Battle Up Front

The Falcons held Tampa Bay to just 2.5 yards per rushing attempt in Week 17 and Atlanta’s front seven and safeties all play well against the run. The group has good range in pursuit of ball-carriers as well.

But the Giants can be the more physical team in this matchup when Kevin Gilbride decides to run the football. New York will bring in a heavy personnel package and feature fullback Henry Hynoski as a lead blocker in the run game.

The Giants’ offense runs much more effectively in the red zone than it throws, and New York dominated time of possession in its win over Dallas last week.

Unleash the Defensive Line

Matt Ryan wasn’t sacked in Week 17 but the Falcons are at a huge disadvantage this week on the road in a loud stadium against an exceptional defensive line. All-Pro Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged in just his second season as one of the best in the league at harassing quarterbacks.

The Giants will employ a very athletic front featuring four defensive ends on throwing downs. Justin Tuck, in particular, is difficult to get blocked when he moves inside. Tuck is as healthy as he’s been all season and is playing his best football this season in the last few weeks.

New York doesn’t blitz often and its defense has been quite simple—and brutally effective—of late. The team has 11 sacks in its last two games, including six against Dallas last week.

Stretch the Field Early

Eli Manning was great last week and has developed great trust in his receivers. Hakeem Nicks is a great talent and Victor Cruz has been tremendous after the catch. Cruz works best out of the slot and could find favorable matchups after logging 178 yards receiving against Dallas.

The Falcons’ best cover corner, Brent Grimes, is hampered by a knee injury and was inactive for the win over Tampa Bay. Atlanta’s cornerback depth isn’t impressive and that could be a problem for the Falcons when the Giants opt to go three-wide sets.

The Picks

Home teams in CAPS.

TEXANS (-3) over Bengals: Getting Wade Phillips back on the sideline will be big for the Houston defense, which will have enough to get by a Cincinnati squad that shocked the league just by being here.

SAINTS (-11) over Lions: New Orleans averages 42.4 points a game at home. Detroit just got lit up for 480 yards and six touchdown passes by a backup.

GIANTS (-3) over Falcons: Matt Ryan falls to 0-3 as a playoff quarterback. Once upon a time, so did Eli Manning.

Steelers (-9) over BRONCOS: I don’t care who’s healthy on offense. Denver can’t win if it can’t score.

Last week: 12-2-2
Regular season: 142-98-14