MLB Rumors: Corbin Burnes 'Widely Expected' to Land $200M+ Contract in Free Agency

Four-time All-Star Corbin Burnes is "widely expected to clear $200 million" on his next contract, according to ESPN's Kiley McDaniel.

McDaniel projected the starting pitcher to get $225 million over seven years in free agency. That would be the third-biggest deal for an active pitcher. The Los Angeles Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto and New York Yankees' Gerrit Cole are the only two with a total payout exceeding than $185 million.

Blake Snell will serve as a cautionary tale for notable aces who overestimate their market value and ultimately have to settle for much less than they were expecting.

This time last year, McDaniel put Snell's value at $150 million over six years, and MLB.com's Mark Feinsand followed up in February to report the two-time Cy Young winner was holding out for $200 million or more. He wound up signing for $62 million from the San Francisco Giants and opted out after one year.

On a broad level, teams are still willing to pay a premium for proven pitching, though. Aaron Nola ($172 million), Tyler Glasnow ($136.6 million) and Zack Wheeler ($126 million) all signed extensions with their current teams within the last year.

Burnes has been durable and pretty consistent on the mound, two things that will make him an attractive target to prospective suitors.

In 2024 with the Baltimore Orioles, he went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.55 FIP. His 3.7 WAR ranked 18th among all pitchers at FanGraphs.

And while the right-hander averaged his second-fewest strikeouts per nine innings (8.4), that was partially by design. He told Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com in May that hitters were attacking him differently, so he adjusted his strategy appropriately.

"We are seeing a different approach against me," he said. "It was easy to see that Blue Jays lineup approach was, if they get to two strikes, they were doing all that they can to put the ball in play. I think that is kind of how the game is changing. You are seeing lineups change to more of a contact approach. Things tend to happen more when the ball is put in play.

"That is one thing you are seeing. Also, pitch-mix-wise I am a little bit different. Pitch sequencing is one of the things I've been looking into recently to try and combat this approach when they get to two strikes and just kind of throw the bat at it to put the ball in play."

Burnes averaged 97.0 mph on his fastball and 95.3 mph on his cutter, per Baseball Savant, so his velocity hasn't gone anywhere. His 28.6 percent whiff rate was nearly identical to 2023 (28.7 percent) as well.

As one of the top starting pitchers on the market, the 30-year-old should be able to command an offer that matches his valuation and perhaps even exceeds it.