MLB World Series 2024: Box Score Stat Predictions for Dodgers vs. Yankees Game 3
The Los Angeles Dodgers will turn to one of their most experienced pitchers to try and extend the 2024 World Series lead over the New York Yankees in Monday's Game 3.
Walker Buehler is scheduled to make the third World Series start of his career. The other two appearances also occurred in Game 3s.
The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound in their attempt to reverse the course of the series. They can't afford to face elimination for four straight games if they go down 0-3.
New York's lineup needs to put in a better overall performance to complement whatever type of outing Schmidt has.
The Yankees are hitting .197 as a team through two games. The Dodgers have a .234 batting average and have hit two more home runs.
Los Angeles' lineup could be affected by Shohei Ohtani's shoulder injury, but they can still achieve success without the superstar because of the contributions it received throughout the order this postseason.
Walker Buehler
1 of 4
Two of the best starts of Walker Buehler's career took place in the World Series.
The Dodgers right-hander struck out seven batters in seven shutout innings in Game 3 of the 2018 World Series and he fanned 10 batters over six frames in Game 3 of the 2020 Fall Classic.
Buehler's form was a concern going into the postseason because of his 4.02 regular-season ERA, but he appeared to figure things out in NLCS Game 3.
He punched out six batters over four shutout innings to slow down the New York Mets.
Buehler will be expected to copy that type of performance over four or five innings on Monday night inside Yankee Stadium.
The Dodgers have full confidence in their bullpen at the moment, and that may lead to Buehler not facing the heart of the Yankees order more than twice.
Strikeouts have been an issue for the Yankees lineup, especially Judge, who has six of his team's 20 punch outs in the series.
Buehler likely will not come close to reaching his postseason high of 10 strikeouts from 2020, but he is capable of mixing in some whiffs over the course of his outing.
Prediction: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Clarke Schmidt
2 of 4
Clarke Schmidt has had to battle through postseason starts more than Buehler in 2024.
The Yankees' Game 3 starter posted near-identical stat lines in his appearances against the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians.
Schmidt allowed two earned runs on four hits and struck out four batters in 4.2 innings against the Royals.
He gave up five hits and two earned runs with two strikeouts in his lone ALCS start, which also lasted 4.2 innings.
The Yankees would love to get Schmidt through the Dodgers order twice. That should be the minimum goal for Monday's outing.
A four-or-five-inning start would allow Aaron Boone to mix and match his bullpen arms in the second half of the game.
Schmidt did not have any extreme splits this season, but it is worth noting that left-handed hitters had a slightly better batting average against him, and that might play into the Dodgers advantage.
Prediction: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Dodgers Hitters
3 of 4
The Dodgers only have three hitters with history against Schmidt.
Shohei Ohtani is 1-for-3 with a home run, Teoscar Hernandez is 0-for-3 and Enrique Hernandez is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts.
Schmidt's slightly higher batting average against numbers versus left-handed hitters could benefit Tommy Edman and Freddie Freeman the most.
The pair of left-handed hitters can take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and if Ohtani is not at 100 percent, they will be asked to perform more out of the top half of the Dodgers order.
Edman leads the series in hits with four, while Freeman is the only hitter with multiple home runs.
Edman and Freeman will likely have the biggest impact on the game from the Dodgers order, but do not count out Mookie Betts from coming up with a big hit or two.
Betts' road average was 33 points better on the road in the regular season and he is a career .246 hitter inside Yankee Stadium.
Predictions: Edman (2-for-4, double), Freeman (1-for-4, single, RBI) Betts (2-for-5, RBI)
Yankees Hitters
4 of 4
Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton have carried the Yankees lineup for most of the postseason.
Soto and Stanton had the two Yankees home runs at Dodger Stadium in Games 1 and 2 and they drove in four of the five runs scored by the American League champion.
Aaron Judge has been the subject of criticism with six strikeouts in nine at-bats. He has a single hit in the World Series and he has two hits in four postseason games at home in 2024.
Soto and Anthony Rizzo are the only Yankees hitters with a ton of history against Buehler. Soto is 4-for-17 with four singles, while Rizzo is 2-for-10. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 3-for-5 against the Dodgers' Game 3 starter in a much smaller sample size of at-bats.
No one would be surprised if Soto and Stanton once again step up with clutch hits for the Yankees, but for New York to win the series, it needs Judge to get going. Judge does not have to hit a home run, but a timely hit or two would do wonders.
Predictions: Soto (2-for-5, double, RBI), Stanton (1-for-4, single), Judge (1-for-5, single)
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