10 NBA Predictions for November: Chet vs. Wemby, A Lakers MVP and More
October is the NBA's warmup month. Barely removed from the preseason and marked by significant superstar absences, we probably shouldn't trust it as a guide for what's ahead in the 2024-25 season.
Oh well. Let's do it anyway.
Truth be told, the handful of October games each team played actually did provide some interesting trends and points of focus. Even if you concede nothing that's happened so far is guaranteed to continue, it's still worth noting that the Los Angeles Lakers look exceptionally dangerous, and that Chet Holmgren seems unsatisfied with last season's runner-up finish in Rookie of the Year voting.
Here, we'll bounce around the league with 10 predictions for November. From prospective MVP party-crashers to coaching hot seats to some gaudy individual numbers, the coming month is set to provide no shortage of narratives and (maybe) record-breaking achievements.
James Harden Will Lead the League in Usage
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James Harden got up 28 shots from the field, nine attempts from the free-throw line and registered eight assists with eight turnovers in the Los Angeles Clippers' Kawhi Leonard-less season-opener against the Phoenix Suns. It still wasn't enough to earn a win.
All of those shots, assists and turnovers added up to a usage rate of 41.8 percent for Harden. Even for him, that's high. Back when Harden was the foremost heliocentric offensive player in the NBA, he led the league in usage rate twice (2017-18 and 2018-19), but the highest figure of his entire career was 40.5 percent.
It'd be stunning if Harden maintained anything close to his current usage rate, in part because his severely diminished athleticism makes it much more difficult for him to generate enough looks for himself. But considering the Clippers' lack of alternatives, it'd be even more shocking if Harden didn't continue to dominate the ball while leading his team in shots, points, assists and turnovers.
The efficiency numbers could be ugly. Harden shot 10-of-28 in the opener and produced a 52.3 true shooting percentage through L.A.'s first three games. But this is what we should have expected and, critically, it seems to be what Harden wanted. Barring the unlikely emergence of another high-usage playmaker or the surprising return of Leonard, Harden is bound to continue his extreme alpha role.
The bet here is that nobody else in the NBA posts a higher usage rate than he does in November.
The Warriors Will Win All of the Second Quarters
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This is a niche and seemingly arbitrary prediction, but it's really just about highlighting the Golden State Warriors' ridiculous depth. In what could be a season-long trend, the Dubs will hang in games with their starters before overwhelming opposing backups with a bench that legitimately goes 12 deep.
Actually, make that 13 if you count Lindy Waters III, which you probably should. That guy can shoot the rock.
For now, the starters (when healthy) are a supersized unit including Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green and Trayce Jackson-Davis. The energetic and three-happy reserves are led by Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, De'Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney and Kyle Anderson.
Head coach Steve Kerr has been lauding his team's depth since the preseason, and he played a dozen different players by the beginning of the second quarter in the Warriors' regular-season opener against the Portland Trail Blazers, which they won 139-104. After a tight first quarter, backup-heavy units shone, posting a plus-37.8 net rating in the second period.
Afterward, Kerr told ESPN's Kendra Andrews: "This is as deep of a team as I've ever coached, and we've got to lean into that. I've never played 12 before, but we're going to do it."
Curry's ankle injury will cost him a handful of games in November, but that'll only make the spotlight on Golden State's bench brighter. Check in on the Warriors any time the game has reached a point where backups are on the floor. Chances are, they'll be building leads all month.
The Brandon Ingram Situation Will Get Complicated
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Dejounte Murray's fractured hand is bad news for the New Orleans Pelicans for all of the obvious reasons. It robs them of their starting point guard and biggest offseason addition, diminishing their strength for several weeks in a brutally unforgiving Western Conference.
It also adds complicated layers to the already fraught situation surrounding Brandon Ingram by making the soon-to-be free agent practically indispensable to the team's success. That'll only make it harder for the Pels to gin up respectable offers in a market that was already skeptical about giving up much for Ingram and his potentially massive price tag next summer.
New Orleans isn't rebuilding, so every game matters. Already weakened by Trey Murphy III's hamstring strain and still subject to concerns surrounding Zion Williamson's durability, the Pelicans may not be able to justify giving up Ingram in any deal. That'll raise the likelihood of keeping him beyond the trade deadline (because there's no way they'll get back anything close to equal on-floor talent by trading him), which elevates the risk of losing him for nothing in free agency.
You might argue that Ingram can use November to prove he's still a long-term piece in New Orleans, but the Pelicans just gave a nine-figure extension to Murphy. This still feels like a "one or the other" situation when it comes to those two.
New Orleans will spend the entire month wrestling with the desire to win games now while also doing its best to manage assets for the long-term.
Tyrese Maxey Will Have a Weird Month
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It's probably a good thing that Tyrese Maxey got some practice at being accommodating last season. He's in for more of the same this year, just in a slightly different way.
In 2023-24, Maxey patiently waited all year to sign an extension. It was part of the Philadelphia 76ers' grand plan to create as much financial flexibility as possible by keeping Maxey's relatively low cap hold on the books until they conducted the rest of their offseason business. It worked, and Philly remade its entire roster before rewarding Maxey with a five-year $203 million extension.
This season, Maxey will be subject to wild swings in his role as the Sixers manage Joel Embiid and Paul George with an eye toward having both at full strength for the playoffs. Some nights, Maxey will be a third option who doesn't feature all that heavily in his team's attack. Others, he'll be out there all alone, tasked with leading Philly in shots and setting up his mostly dependent-scorer teammates.
Maxey flew solo and fired off 31 field-goal attempts in the Sixers' season-opening loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. That'll likely be the norm whenever Embiid and George are out of the lineup. It was a high-stress effort that yielded 21 missed shots, the second-most of his career.
His 45 points in a 118-114 overtime win over the Pacers on Oct. 27 marked the fourth-highest total of his career. He missed 18 of his 32 shots in that one but generated a whopping 15 free-throw attempts, which tied a career-high.
It won't be that way every night in November, but that's kind of the point. Maxey will have to get used to plenty of games when he's basically out there on his own...and then adjust back to playing a secondary or tertiary role the next time out.
Every NBA player wants role stability, but the next month won't offer any of that for Maxey.
The Raptors Will Win Just One Game
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The Toronto Raptors play 10 of their 15 November games on the road. It's easy to imagine them getting buried and demoralized from the jump.
After a two-game homestand against the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings to begin the month, they're going on a five-game road trip against the Denver Nuggets, Kings, Los Angeles Clippers, Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks. Prior to the season, the Clips would have profiled as the only winnable game in the bunch, but James Harden and Co. look more competent than expected. We can't give the Raps that one after the Clippers' solid start.
It also doesn't help that Immanuel Quickley took a tough fall and bruised his pelvis after 14 minutes in Toronto's opening-night loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. He hasn't played since.
That game was something of a tone-setter for Toronto, as its porous defense allowed 136 points to the Cavs even though they hit only 14 threes. It was an absolute parade to the bucket in that contest, and the Raptors don't have the personnel or depth to keep that from happening against most offenses.
The Raps get to face the Detroit Pistons twice in November, but it's hard to see why we'd anticipate two wins across those meetings. We'll give them one because we're feeling charitable, but it was tempting to offer the even hotter take that the Raptors would go 0-for-November.
Chet vs. Wemby Will Enter the Discourse
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Can you feel it building with every show-out game from Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren? Can you sense the inevitability in the air?
If you haven't by now, don't worry. At some point in November, you won't be able to avoid the Chet vs. Wemby discussions. Even if you deliberately ignore the shouting-head shows and stay off social media, serious analysts will have no choice but to broach the topic themselves.
One week into the 2024-25 season, Holmgren has outperformed Victor Wembanyama. That means we're going to get some "hold on a second, what if Holmgren is actually the second-year player whom we should have tabbed as generational?" chatter.
Will that discussion be rational? Will it be based on large samples? That's a "no" on both fronts. But Holmgren's two-way production, consistency and team success have been massive stories through the season's opening days.
Wembanyama has been good, but he hasn't banked in any buckets off the jumbotron or blocked 26 shots in a game like many expected he would have by now. That'll create all the opportunity we'll need to relitigate an issue that seemed totally settled a few weeks ago: the identity of the league's top young big man.
Anyone who flips on Wemby after a such a short time is making a mistake. But the only thing better than a mega-prospect wrecking the league all by himself is the emergence of another one who's capable of challenging him. That's how you get longtime rivalries, and nothing could be better than a little early-season Chet vs. Wemby talk to feed into that.
Doc Rivers' Seat Will Heat Up
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You can't really have a hot coaching seat in October, and November is pushing it by any rational measure. But Milwaukee Bucks head coach Doc Rivers posted a worse record last year than the man he replaced, Adrian Griffin, and he isn't exactly getting his team to play like better results are on the way.
The Bucks are missing Khris Middleton and are trying to incorporate two new starters in the meantime, but that doesn't excuse back-to-back losses to the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets. Those teams are supposed to be in a race to the bottom of the East standings, but the Bucks' undisciplined offense and disconnected defense made them look like quality operations by comparison.
"Right now, we don't have an identity," Giannis Antetokounmpo said, via Eric Nehm of The Athletic ."Like, how are we going to win the game? Are we going to defend for 48 minutes? Are we going to move the ball for 48 minutes? ... We gotta find an identity. We don't have that right now."
That was before the Boston Celtics handed the Bucks a third straight loss on Monday, blowing them away with a third-quarter run.
These aren't the kinds of crises that veteran teams with championship experience should be enduring, but it continues to feel as though Milwaukee just isn't as organized or connected as it should be. That's not all on Rivers, but when the best player on the team wonders aloud about its identity, the head coach has to bear some of the blame.
Kyle Kuzma Will Un-Retire His Fits
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You've got to admire the maturity of Kyle Kuzma—more so with respect to materialism and vanity than shot selection. At least for the time being, he's sworn off his pregame fixation on attention-grabbing outfits.
"I don't want to be part of that community where you have to put on a fit," he told Leah Faye Cooper of Vogue. "I'm really taking a backseat to all of that."
For context, this is like Ja Morant deciding he's done trying to dunk on everyone or Buddy Hield committing to pass up open threes. Wild outfits are among the most notable aspects of Kuzma's NBA existence, and they've probably been his defining feature since joining the go-nowhere Washington Wizards.
Can he really go cold turkey?
And secondly, what will he do with all of his inflatable and/or fishnet apparel? That stuff probably won't hold up in a dusty storage unit. The moths would have an all-timer of a feast on sweater sleeves that reach the floor.
Consider this a bet that Kuzma can't quit the fit game and that an unretirement of sorts is inevitable. The fact that his claims to the contrary came in a Vogue profile says a lot. He'll break his prohibition on high-fashion tunnel outfits before we hit December.
Cam Thomas Will Outscore Everyone
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The usual suspects like Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should not be ignored, but Brooklyn Nets guard Cam Thomas is well positioned to lead the NBA in shot attempts and points in November.
He only got up 65 total shots in Brooklyn's first three games, putting him well behind the deeply overtaxed Tyrese Maxey, who fired off 86 shots in that same season-opening span. But virtually every player who ranked ahead of Thomas in field-goal attempts after three games played (of which there were only five) is less likely to sustain such a high-volume approach.
If anything, Thomas should be expected to increase his.
The Nets aren't playing for anything but lottery position this year, and they're short on alternative shot creators. In addition to being hard-wired to score, Thomas is Brooklyn's top option by necessity. He'll get to kick off November with matchups against Chicago and Detroit, and you'd better believe he'll be gunning in the Nets' four in-season tournament games later in the month.
It was popular before the season to pick Thomas as a dark-horse scoring champ, and it's easy to see why. Despite averaging 30.7 points per game in his first three contests, it somehow feels as if Thomas hasn't really heated up yet. Don't be surprised when he totals more points this month than anyone else.
Anthony Davis Will Lead in MVP Straw Polls
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There are no October MVPs, but Anthony Davis would have taken home the honor if it existed.
He topped 30 points in each of the Los Angeles Lakers' first three games—all wins—dominating inside to the tune of 45 free-throw attempts and getting more touches all over the floor in new head coach JJ Redick's revamped offense. He narrowly missed a fourth-straight 30-pointer, netting 29 in a close loss to the Phoenix Suns on Monday.
AD's defense is a given, and he's been wrecking opponents' plans both near the basket and in space. Basically, Davis has been the league's most dominant two-way force so far.
With the Lakers clearly emphasizing his role on both ends, there's no reason to expect that to change. LeBron James, who's had some remarkably hot shooting stretches himself in the early going, is on board.
"It's very important that he (Davis) has been a focal point for us," he told reporters after Los Angeles' second win of the season, in which Davis cracked the 35-point mark for the second straight night. "Offensively we have to find him in multiple places on the floor throughout the whole game."
Davis has the support of his head coach and an iconic teammate, and his individual production on both ends is leading to team success. He appears comfortable with an expanded role and is showing no signs of slowing down in November.
He'll finish out the month atop all of the too-early MVP straw polls.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through games played Oct. 29. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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