Ranking Corbin Burnes and Top 10 Starting Pitchers of 2024-25 MLB Free-Agent Class
One of the best starting pitchers of the last five years is about to be a free agent, and that is just the tip of the iceberg for the upcoming market for starting pitchers.
It's time to do the thing and rank the best of the best.
Albeit with some honorable mentions up front, we're only going to rank the 10 best starters about to hit the 2024-25 market. These are based on how well each guy projects going forward, based on their age, their current abilities and any relevant information concerning workload and injuries.
It barely feels like a spoiler to come right out and acknowledge that Corbin Burnes is in the No. 1 slot. Yet he will face challenges to his earning power this winter, including from a fellow Cy Young Award winner.
Let it be known that Gerrit Cole is not featured here. Though he can opt out of the four years and $144 million he has left on his deal with the New York Yankees, the team can keep him from free agency by tacking another year and $36 million onto his existing contract.
Let's get to it.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 10 H (0 HR), 20 K, 1 BB, 0.00 ERA
Bieber looked unhittable in his first two starts of 2024, but then Tommy John surgery blindsided him. The 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner should be back midway through 2025, so look for him to get a two-year deal with some kind of option.
RHP Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 16 GS, 75.1 IP, 89 H (16 HR), 64 K, 28 BB, 5.38 ERA
Buehler was an elite pitcher between 2018 and 2021, running a 2.82 ERA across 564 innings. Alas, a 4.75 ERA and a second Tommy John surgery over the last three years have dampened his star. He'll be a candidate for a one-year "prove it" deal.
RHP Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 26 GS, 145.2 IP, 128 H (28 HR), 172 K, 36 BB, 4.14 ERA
The good news? Pivetta misses a ton of bats, as he averaged 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings in four-and-a-half seasons with Boston. The bad news? He's a superspreader of home runs who's given up 175 of 'em in eight seasons. He's a high-risk, high-reward project.
RHP Max Scherzer, Texas Rangers
Age: 40
2024 Stats: 9 GS, 43.1 IP, 40 H (7 HR), 40 K, 10 BB, 3.95 ERA
Oh, nothing. Just a normal, run-of-the-mill three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer right here. The catch is that Scherzer is 40 and clearly past his prime, but there won't be a shortage of teams willing to do a one-year deal with him this winter.
RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Age: 41
2024 Stats: 17 GS, 90.1 IP, 98 H (15 HR), 74 K, 27 BB, 5.48 ERA
Here's another three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer, only this one is 41 and coming off his worst season as a professional. Verlander nonetheless has a chip on his shoulder, and is thus an intriguing option on a one-year deal.
10. RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, Yomiuri Giants
2 of 11
Age: 35
2024 Stats (NPB): 24 G, 156.2 IP, 132 H (6 HR), 111 K, 16 BB, 1.67 ERA
Career Accolades: 2-time Eiji Sawamura Award, 8-time NPB All-Star
On credentials alone, Tomoyuki Sugano is about to be one of the most impressive starting pitchers on the 2024-25 market.
The right-hander, whose upcoming move to MLB was reported by ESPN's Jeff Passan, has pitched in Nippon Professional Baseball for 12 seasons. He has a career ERA of 2.43, with four ERA titles to his credit. Alongside Kodai Senga, he also co-led Team Japan with 16 strikeouts during the 2017 World Baseball Classic.
With a fastball that sits in the low 90s, "overpowering" isn't quite the right word to describe Sugano. He's more of a Seth Lugo type, in that he throws a whole bunch of pitches with impeccable command.
Depending on how you classify them, Sugano offers as many as six different pitches. He's never had a walk rate higher than 2.1 per nine innings in any of his campaigns with the Giants, with his rate of 0.9 from this season setting a new personal best.
Sugano initially tried to come to MLB back in 2022, but the lockout put the kibosh on that. Yet even if his age figures to limit him to short-term offers, teams can look at him as a viable mid-rotation candidate for the next couple of seasons.
Potential Fits: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers
9. LHP José Quintana, New York Mets
3 of 11
Age: 35
2024 Stats: 31 GS, 170.1 IP, 150 H (22 HR), 135 K, 63 BB, 3.75 ERA
Career Accolades: 2016 AL All-Star
If it feels like José Quintana has been around forever, well, that isn't far from the truth.
He's been a major league mainstay since 2012, racking up more innings since then than all but five other pitchers. And of those five guys, at least three have dates with Cooperstown in the not-so-distant future.
The lefty seemed cooked as an effective starter in the late 2010s and early 2020s, but not anymore. A 3.39 ERA over 76 starts in three seasons is good for the soul, not to mention the reputation.
Quintana has always been a fastball-curveball-changeup guy, but he's put a twist on the formula over the last two seasons. His sinker is now his go-to heater, and why not? Only Chris Bassitt has gotten more value out of his sinker across 2023 and 2024.
Inevitably, Quintana is more of a ground-ball pitcher than he used to be. Especially this season, wherein only nine qualified starters had a higher rate of grounders. So if a team is going to sign him, it would do well to check the strength of its infield defense first.
Either way, you're looking at a sure-thing No. 3 or No. 4 starter. And likely one who can be had on a two- or even a one-year deal.
Potential Fits: New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers
8. LHP Yusei Kikuchi, Houston Astros
4 of 11
Age: 33
2024 Stats: 32 GS, 175.2 IP, 167 H (25 HR), 206 K, 44 BB, 4.05 ERA
Career Accolades: 2021 AL All-Star
Yusei Kikuchi would not have been on this list two months ago, but leave it to the Astros to get their hooks in a guy and infuse him with ample nastiness.
Kikuchi made 10 starts for Houston, and those saw him rack up 76 strikeouts and only 14 walks across 60 innings. He was one of the top pitchers in the American League for that span.
The secret? Well, don't tell anyone, but...sliders. And lots of 'em.
Kikuchi took to throwing his slider 37.1 percent of the time with Houston, and only Chris Sale got as much value from his slider as Kikuchi did after he joined the Astros.
This is probably something hitters will adjust to if Kikuchi keeps going to the well in 2025, but that wouldn't necessarily be his doom. He's been nothing if not adjustable throughout his MLB career. It also bears noting he still has power in his arm, as he's fresh off averaging a career-best 95.5 mph on his heater.
Kikuchi got a three-year, $36 million deal the last time he was a free agent during the 2021-22 offseason. A similar deal may be in order this time around, though it'll likely have a higher average annual value.
Potential Fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles
7. RHP Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
5 of 11
Age: 34
2024 Stats: 29 GS, 170.2 IP, 147 H (23 HR), 166 K, 42 BB, 3.80 ERA
Career Accolades: 2-time All-Star, 2-time World Series champion
Nathan Eovaldi has been around since 2011. And since he's been around, only three pitchers have hit 95 mph on the gun more often than he has.
Not bad for a guy who's missed a bunch of time with injuries, including a whole season by way of his second Tommy John surgery back in 2017. And while he will be 35 years old on February 13, 2025, he's not exactly losing a step.
The righty averaged a sturdy 95.4 mph on his fastball this year, and he has the option of becoming a free agent precisely because of his relative durability.
There is, of course, obligatory downside in considering Eovaldi's workload from this season as a sign of things to come. Instances of him making it through a season without a stint on the IL are the exception, and he obviously isn't getting younger.
He's nonetheless still a good guy to have around for the regular season, not to mention the playoffs. Even his career 3.05 ERA in the postseason undersells his exploits, as Eovaldi has been known to be downright heroic in October.
In any case, Eovaldi figures to be in the market for an incentive-laden two- or three-year deal for dollars worthy of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.
Potential Fits: Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers
6. RHP Luis Severino, New York Mets
6 of 11
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 31 GS, 182.0 IP, 166 H (23 HR), 161 K, 60 BB, 3.91 ERA
Career Accolades: 2-time All-Star
If absolutely nothing else, Luis Severino can pat himself on the back for having done this:
- 2019-2023: 40 starts, 209.1 innings
- 2024: 31 starts, 182 innings
A shocking turn of events if there ever was one, and it's made that much more encouraging by how Severino only seemed to get stronger as 2024 went along.
His ERA did go up from the first half (3.78) to the second half (4.11), but the best fastball velocity he had all season came in August and September. And so it goes in October, wherein he's been chucking 97.0 mph heaters at hitters.
Mind you, Severino isn't a bona fide Ace-Type Guy again just because of his four-seam fastball. This year saw him lean more heavily on his sinker and also debut a sweeper, the latter of which held hitters to just a .139 average.
There are still downsides at play in his upcoming free agency. His injury history is an obvious one, and let's also not overlook that lefties handled him to the tune of a .774 OPS this season. By contrast, righties only managed a .615 OPS.
Still, it's not hard to imagine someone giving Severino a three-year deal. And the more one thinks about it, the more one wonders if that might even be too conservative.
Potential Fits: New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles
5. LHP Sean Manaea, New York Mets
7 of 11
Age: 32
2024 Stats: 32 GS, 181.2 IP, 134 H (21 HR), 184 K, 63 BB, 3.47 ERA
Career Accolades: Threw no-hitter in 2018
Luis Severino isn't the only Mets hurler who got even stronger as 2024 went along. Sean Manaea did, too.
He was indeed downright unhittable during an 11-start run between July 30 and September 21, posting a 2.63 ERA and limiting batters to a .155 average.
Much has been made of the lower arm slot that the lefty, who can opt out of the $13.5 million he's owed in 2025, adopted in the last two months of the year. It did happen, after all, and one of its effects was making him even more effective against right-handed batters.
Though Manaea throws a pretty sweeper, it's his sinker that makes him go. The pitch accounted for 44.7 percent of his offerings during the regular season, and it ultimately accumulated the most value of any sinker thrown by any lefty.
The risk Manaea comes with is related to how fleeting success has been for him. His results have been all over the place, and he hasn't always been a paragon of durability. Notably, he missed almost all of 2019 recovering from shoulder surgery.
It is nonetheless fair to say that he's more of a workhorse than most modern pitchers, not to mention more of an inventive one. He should be in for at least a three-year deal.
Potential Fits: New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles
4. RHP Jack Flaherty, Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 11
Age: 28
2024 Stats: 28 GS, 162.0 IP, 135 H (24 HR), 194 K, 38 BB, 3.17 ERA
Career Accolades: 4th in 2019 NL Cy Young Award voting
Back when he willed his way into the NL Cy Young Award race with a hot second half in 2019, it seemed like Jack Flaherty was only getting started.
Instead, what befell him over the next four seasons is a "less said, the better" situation. He was more like Jack Flat-erty, making only 59 starts and pitching to a modest 4.42 ERA.
This year mercifully brought redemption, and in such a way that suggests Flaherty may yet have a sustained run as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Fueled by a reinvigorated fastball and one of the better curveballs in the league, the righty finished in the top 10 among qualified starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He gave up three earned runs or fewer in 23 of his 28 starts.
Flaherty did have some back issues in the middle of the season, and he seemed out of gas by the end of it. The worst fastball velocity he had all year was in his last two starts.
This wasn't totally unexpected, however. Nor is it necessarily a five-alarm fire. Flaherty will only turn 29 on October 15, making him relatively young for a high-upside free-agent pitcher.
He could be in for Eduardo Rodriguez money, a la four years and $80 million. And if his market really picks up, it's a short leap from there to nine figures.
Potential Fits: San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, New York Yankees
3. LHP Max Fried, Atlanta
9 of 11
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 29 GS, 174.1 IP, 146 H (13 HR), 166 K, 57 BB, 3.25 ERA
Career Accolades: 2-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glover, 2021 World Series champion
That Max Fried is a Very Good Pitcher doesn't need much in the way of justification.
Since breaking out back in 2020, the lefty boasts a 151 ERA+ over 659 innings. Here's a complete list of pitchers who have hit those two marks for the last five seasons.
- Just him
So, there's that. And dare I say that Fried is the most disaster-proof pitcher in MLB right now?
He does everything he can to not only limit damage, but actively suppress it. He's typically good for around one strikeout per inning, and he's walked only 2.3 batters per nine innings since 2020. He's also incredibly difficult to square up, where you're going off his hard-hit rate or simply his ground-ball rate.
Fried's injury history is simultaneously relatively harmless and ever-so-slightly alarming. He hasn't spent much time on the IL as a big leaguer, but he did have Tommy John surgery a decade ago and he's had forearm issues in each of the last two seasons.
Even still, doubt that Fried will do well in free agency is basically nonexistent. He has every right to be looking at Carlos Rodón's six-year, $162 million deal and wondering if he can do just as well, if not better.
Potential Fits: New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants
2. LHP Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants
10 of 11
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 20 GS, 104.0 IP, 65 H (6 HR), 145 K, 44 BB, 3.12 ERA
Career Accolades: 2-time Cy Young Award winner, 2018 AL All-Star
Blake Snell ostensibly signed a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants last winter. But at least from his perspective, it was only ever meant to be a one-year arrangement.
This will indeed be the case, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported in September that Snell will be exercising his opt-out clause. And who can blame him?
Through the first three months of 2024, Snell was sitting on a 9.51 ERA and had already been on the injured list twice. But then came July 9, when he began a 14-start run that resulted in a 1.23 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 80.1 innings. He even tossed in a no-hitter for good measure.
This, of course, is on the heels of Snell winning his second Cy Young Award in 2023, which was on the heels of a hot run through the second half of 2022. All told, he has a 2.49 ERA over his last 66 starts.
The risks of signing Snell aren't any less obvious than they were last winter. He can be erratic even when he's pitching well, and it's not uncommon for him to not show up until the second half. He also turns 32 on December 4.
Still, it's about time the guy got his due as a legitimate ace. In contract form, that should be a multi-year deal in the $150-200 million range.
Potential Fits: San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers
1. RHP Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
11 of 11
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 32 GS, 194.1 IP, 165 H (22 HR), 181 K, 48 BB, 2.92 ERA
Career Accolades: 2021 NL Cy Young Award, 4-time All-Star
Let's get excited about Corbin Burnes' free agency.
This is as simple as recognizing what Burnes has done since he converted to starting midway through 2020. We're talking a 133-start sample with a 2.87 ERA over 800.2 innings. His 922 strikeouts in this span are the most of any pitcher.
With that done, let's now take a moment to stray into skepticism.
Though he's remained effective, Burnes has gotten a little less overpowering on an annual basis over the last three years. He failed to reach even one strikeout per inning this year, and he served up a career-high 37 barrels.
But is this a stuff problem? Or is it a style choice?
It certainly isn't the former, as the overall quality of Burnes' stuff remains elite. As to the latter, Burnes said in May that he would prefer more strikeouts, but also that the K is "not something I am going to chase."
The picture is not that of a devolving pitcher, but rather of an evolving one. And as long as the results are there, well, why complain?
Teams in need of an ace certainly won't be. They'll be too busy trying to woo Burnes, with the end result likely to be a deal that comes close to comes close to matching the $300-plus million guarantees of Gerrit Cole and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Potential Fits: New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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