MLB World Series 2024 Odds: Breaking Down Chances of Final 8 Teams
It feels like just yesterday that an epic doubleheader determined which of the Mets, Braves and Diamondbacks would secure the final two spots in the 12-team postseason field, but already we are down to just eight remaining Major League Baseball teams vying for the 2024 World Series title.
Every team has flaws this October, and the gap between the heaviest favorite and the unlikeliest underdog hasn't been this narrow since 2014—the most recent 162-game season with nary a 100-win team, which ended in the 88-win Giants topping the 89-win Royals in an all-wild card World Series.
One of these eight teams will win it all, though, and we'll run through a good reason to buy each team as a World Series hopeful, a good reason to sell their chances of winning it all and a potential X-Factor that could change everything.
Teams are presented in ascending order of World Series odds, courtesy of DraftKings, last updated Thursday at 11 p.m. ET.
AL No. 6 Seed: Detroit Tigers
1 of 8
Regular Season Record: 86-76
Division Series Matchup: Cleveland Guardians
Odds to Win World Series: +950
Reason to Buy
The World Series champion isn't necessarily the best team. Sometimes it's just the team that got hot at the right time.
And no one has been hotter than these Tigers.
Including the two wild-card round victories in Houston, Detroit has gone 33-13 dating back to August 11, which is easily the best record in the majors during that time.
Had they been that impressive for the first three-quarters of the season, they would've won around 116 games.
Of course, only really having one and a half starting pitchers while routinely relying on openers and long relievers is hardly a sustainable strategy for six months. It's pretty amazing they've been able to make it work for as long as they have, essentially playing playoff baseball for two months now.
Let the good times roll, though. They're only 11 wins away from their first World Series title since 1984. What's four more weeks of all hands on deck?
Reason to Sell
Even during this remarkable run, Detroit's offense has been just OK, averaging 4.4 runs per game.
That extrapolates to 718 runs at a 162-game pace, which still would have made them the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the postseason, edging out both Atlanta and Cleveland by about a dozen.
Even worse, a lot of the scoring they did manage to do came against the likes of Seattle, Colorado, Oakland and the White Sox. Including the wild-card games against Houston, Detroit has scored a combined total of 80 runs over its last 26 games (3.1 per game) against teams that made the playoffs.
And while the pitching approach has held up to this point, can they really get by in October with Tarik Skubal and a bunch of bullpen games?
Potential X-Factor
Can the bullpen continue to shoulder the weight of the world?
The Tigers used seven relievers in the series-clinching win over Houston. They also used Jason Foley in Game 1, but not Game 2.
Here are the innings pitched and ERA during this 33-13 run from those eight relievers:
- Tyler Holton: 30.1 IP, 0.89 ERA
- Brenan Hanifee: 25.0 IP, 1.44 ERA
- Brant Hurter: 39.0 IP, 2.31 ERA
- Beau Brieske: 28.2 IP, 1.88 ERA
- Jackson Jobe: 4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA
- Sean Guenther: 21.1 IP, 0.42 ERA
- Will Vest: 21.2 IP, 1.66 ERA
- Jason Foley: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA
Let's temporarily remove Jobe from the equation, as they called that top prospect up with less than a week remaining in the regular season and might be reluctant to use him again after he blew the save on Wednesday. The remaining seven have gone a combined 184.1 IP (almost exactly 4 IP per game) with a 1.61 ERA dating back to August 11.
Sheesh.
The way games are spaced out in the postseason—Detroit's ALDS schedule is Saturday, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday—it's not crazy to think they could plan on multiple bullpen games in each series.
And if that septet keeps doing its thing, it won't take much run support to get wins.
NL No. 6 Seed: New York Mets
2 of 8
Regular Season Record: 89-73
Division Series Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies
Odds to Win World Series: +950
Reason to Buy
See: Tigers, Detroit.
While the AL's No. 6 seed has the best record in baseball since mid-August, the NL's No. 6 seed has the best record since late-August, going 22-10 over its last 32 games and clinching its spot in the postseason in exhilarating fashion in Game 1 of that historic standalone double-header against Atlanta on Monday.
Remarkably, that's even with Francisco Lindor missing 10 games in September with a back injury. In games over the past five weeks in which their star shortstop has made multiple plate appearances, they've gone 16-5.
To the vast majority of non-Mets fans, it's annoying that they have become this plucky, lovable underdog. Steve Cohen outspent every other team both this season and last, yet by drastically underachieving in 2023 and starting out 24-35 this year, this Grimace-fueled, OMG rally has somehow turned the Mets into this year's 'team of destiny.'
In spite of that fanfare, they've also tapped into a rich vein of "nobody believes in us" mojo. That doubleheader in Atlanta was supposed to leave any survivors from it far too battered and bruised to turn right around and win a wild-card series. Nevertheless, the Mets flew from Milwaukee to Atlanta on Sunday night, flew back to Milwaukee less than 36 hours later and took two of three from the Brewers.
At this point, they might just win 11 more in a row.
Reason to Sell
Though the Mets do have a greater quantity of "it could be worse" starting pitchers than either Cleveland or Detroit, the rotation is definitively not a strength here. At any rate, they'll be at a considerable disadvantage in the starting pitcher matchup in each game against the Phillies.
Frankly, the bullpen isn't a strong point, either.
Phil Maton had been their most reliable reliever of the second half, but that went out the window in a hurry as he collapsed in the eighth inning of Game 2 against Milwaukee. $102M closer Edwin Díaz is untouchable when he's on, but he also had seven blown saves against just 20 successful conversions this season, including blowing the first game of that doubleheader in Atlanta.
Potential X-Factor
What will the Mets get on offense beyond their infield?
Lindor has been great. Pete Alonso can mash. Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias have become wholly unexpected stars after not opening the season on the roster. But things get iffy in a hurry from there.
Jesse Winker has a mediocre .683 OPS with the Mets, however, he has been one of their best OF/DH options as of late. Starling Marte had a .635 OPS in the second half. J.D. Martinez's was .623. Brandon Nimmo was a .596. Harrison Bader landed at .513.
All of them can hit, though.
Winker is on a one-year, $2M contract after a brutal 2023 campaign, but the other four are each making eight figures this season, supposed to be way more productive than they have been lately.
At least Tyrone Taylor is contributing at a comparatively high level, but will any of the others step up in the NLDS and beyond?
AL No. 5 Seed: Kansas City Royals
3 of 8
Regular Season Record: 86-76
Division Series Matchup: New York Yankees
Odds to Win World Series: +850
Reason to Buy
For six full months, the Kansas City Royals have simply refused to go away, mostly because of Bobby Witt Jr.
He isn't going to win the AL MVP, because Aaron Judge exists and just posted the highest OPS in a single season (excluding 2020) since Barry Bonds in 2004.
However, Witt is the most valuable player in baseball for everything he did to carry this team all season long.
He led the majors in both batting average and total hits. He ranked top three in the majors in both doubles and triples. He was one of six players with at least 100 runs and 100 RBI, and one of three with at least 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases. All the while, he played damn good defense at shortstop, too, tied for fifth in the majors in outs above average.
Kansas City only scored three runs while sweeping Baltimore in the wild-card round, but guess who drove in the winning run in each game, both of them via a two-out RBI?
If anyone is going to just fireman's carry his otherwise unresponsive offense to some wins this October, it's Witt.
And let's not overlook the strength of the Royals' starting rotation. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo both delivered key performances in Baltimore. Michael Wacha could do the same against New York. Maybe even Brady Singer, too, if they feel they need a fourth starter in the ALDS. All four logged enough innings this season to qualify for an ERA title, each doing so with an ERA of 3.71 or better.
Reason to Sell
Even with Vinnie Pasquantino surprisingly returning from his broken thumb in time for the postseason, Kansas City's offense gets bleak in a hurry beyond Witt—making it hard to believe he has only been intentionally walked nine times all season.
Witt posted an .816 OPS in September, which is respectable, but a big step backward from what was a 1.004 mark heading into the final month. And because of it, Kansas City couldn't even manage three runs per game (74 in 25), as no other Royal, regardless of number of plate appearances, even reached a .700 OPS in September.
Heck, Michael Massey (.692) was the only one north of .640.
And though Kansas City's starting rotation is mighty fine, its bullpen is much less of a sure thing. Definitely better than it was in the first half of the season, trading for now-closer Lucas Erceg and kind of hitting the jackpot with former starters Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch IV both emerging as key middle relievers.
Of the three AL Central teams still standing, though, this is easily the least trustworthy bullpen.
Potential X-Factor
It's got to be Pasquantino.
In the 36 games before suffering the broken thumb, Kansas City's first baseman hit .303/.335/.513 with eight home runs and 34 RBI. And he did go 2-for-4 with a first-inning RBI in Game 2 against the O's.
He doesn't need to be the Juan Soto to Witt's Judge, but a legitimate secondary offensive threat here could be huge.
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AL No. 2 Seed: Cleveland Guardians
4 of 8
Regular Season Record: 92-69
Division Series Matchup: Detroit Tigers
Odds to Win World Series: +800
Reason to Buy
This bullpen is simply unreal.
Emmanuel Clase gets all of the love, and rightfully so. He saved 47 games with a 0.61 ERA and 0.66 WHIP and ought to finish first runner-up to Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young vote. He might even be the first reliever to finish top-five in an MVP vote since Baltimore's Randy Myers placed fourth in 1997.
But did you know Clase is one of not two, not three, not four, but five Guardians relievers who logged at least 40 innings with a sub-2.00 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP?
Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Eli Morgan also fit that description, joining a club that otherwise only includes 10 relievers (and one Paul Skenes) between the other 29 teams combined.
Morgan was almost never used in high-leverage situations, but Smith, Gaddis, Herrin and Clase combined to go 21-7 with 48 saves and 75 holds with fewer blown saves (12) than New York's Clay Holmes had (13).
If Cleveland wins the first five innings of a game, it's most likely not going to lose the final four.
Reason to Sell
Early in the year, Cleveland was remarkably clutch with runners in scoring position. When we ranked the top 10 offenses in baseball at the beginning of July, the Guardians had an .848 OPS w/RISP.
However, they ended the year at .772 in that department, putting them at roughly .695 over the past three months—which is almost exactly what they did w/RISP last year (.691) while finishing 10 games below .500.
It wasn't a teamwide collapse. José Ramírez has remained incredible. And after posting a .571 OPS in 30 games played in the first half, rookie Kyle Manzardo was a big piece of the puzzle down the stretch with an .873 OPS in September.
But with both Steven Kwan and David Fry cratering back to earth, Cleveland went from a 52-29 machine averaging 5.0 runs per game to a 40-40 mediocrity averaging 3.8 runs per contest.
Also, this might be the worst starting rotation in the playoffs. Guardians not named Tanner Bibee combined for two quality starts over the final four weeks of the regular season—one each by Matthew Boyd and Joey Cantillo, the latter of whom might not be lined up to start at all in the postseason.
Potential X-Factor
After posting a horrific .437 OPS in his first 28 games after being traded from Washington to Cleveland, Lane Thomas was low-key one of the 20 most valuable AL position players in September, posting an .885 OPS with seven home runs.
Despite his emergence, the Guardians offense was actually less productive in September (3.6 R/G) than it was in August (4.4 R/G), but it sure has been nice to be able to confidently slot him into the middle of the lineup instead of trying to figure out where to hide him.
Maybe the Lane Train will deliver in a clutch situation or two.
NL No. 4 Seed: San Diego Padres
5 of 8
Regular Season Record: 93-69
Division Series Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds to Win World Series: +600
Reason to Buy
Detroit has the best record dating back to August 11, but widen that scope a few more weeks to July 20 and no one can hold a candle to the Padres at 45-19.
During that time, they:
- Traded for Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing, all of whom became major positives in the bullpen
- Acquired Martín Pérez, who pitched surprisingly well with a 2.61 ERA in his first nine starts in San Diego
- Got Joe Musgrove back from the IL better than ever (though, his elbow injury in Game 2 against Atlanta looms large)
- Watched Michael King and Dylan Cease become serious co-aces alongside Musgrove
- Had Manny Machado go from a .719 OPS through his first 98 games to a .933 OPS in his final 54 games
- Reaped the benefits of Jackson Merrill becoming a very real threat to steal NL ROY from Paul Skenes, and
- Welcomed both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Yu Darvish back into the mix after extended absences, making this feel like the most complete team in the big leagues.
All good stuff, making the Dads the trendy pick to win the World Series.
Not the favorite, mind you. Just the trendy pick. Pretty much everyone who has been watching baseball on a national scale since the All-Star break knows this team has as good of a chance as any to win the whole thing.
Reason to Sell
One big exception to that "most complete team" notion is that the Padres have been without Ha-Seong Kim since mid-August with what proved to be a season-ending shoulder injury.
Fortunately, they were already drowning in players with ample shortstop experience, so Xander Bogaerts slid from second base back to what used to be his home with Boston.
However, this has left San Diego with little choice but to play both Jake Cronenworth and Donovan Solano on what has become a replacement-level first-base side of the infield. That duo went a combined 1-for-13 with six strikeouts in the two wild card games against Atlanta.
More troubling than that, All-Star closer Robert Suarez was quite shaky over the final two months of the regular season. After allowing eight total runs (seven earned) in his first 44 appearances, he allowed at least one earned run in nine of his final 21 appearances for an overall ERA of 5.66.
He did still convert 12 of 15 save chances, and he did finish out both games against Atlanta without any issues. However, Padres leads will feel safer in the seventh and eighth innings than they will in the ninth.
Potential X-Factor
You saw it in Game 1 against Atlanta: Michael King.
There were some rough outings early in the year as he transitioned to a full-time starting role for the first time in his big-league career. Over his final 20 starts of the regular season, though, King had a 2.24 ERA while averaging 10.7 K/9. And he devastated the Braves with 12 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings in his first-ever start in the postseason.
Once the Padres made the mid-March addition of Cease to a rotation already featuring Darvish and Musgrove, it looked like King would be, at best, San Diego's No. 4 starter. But if he can continue to pitch not just like the ace of this staff but like one of the five best pitchers in all of baseball, the Padres might finally win it all.
And, man, if it happens because King strikes out Juan Soto a few times in the World Series, that would be kind of awesome, given that trade from last December.
NL No. 2 Seed: Philadelphia Phillies
6 of 8
Regular Season Record: 95-67
Division Series Matchup: New York Mets
Odds to Win World Series: +450
Reason to Buy
With the Seattle Mariners missing the postseason and the Atlanta Braves already eliminated (and sans Chris Sale anyway), the Phillies have the best three-man starting rotation in the field.
Zack Wheeler has been Cy Young-worthy all season long, but especially as of late with a 1.89 ERA since the beginning of August.
Cristopher Sánchez has been a breakout sensation—though, they may want to make sure to use him exclusively in home games, where he had a 2.21 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season compared to 5.02 and 1.66, respectively, elsewhere.
And while Aaron Nola didn't have the greatest season of his career, he was consistently solid and really honed in his swing-and-miss stuff down the stretch, averaging 12.0 K/9 in September.
Moreover, after the bullpen was a considerable concern for the Phillies in each of the past two postseasons, they should be in good hands this year with Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm leading that charge.
Reason to Sell
Remember two years ago when the Yankees started out 61-23 only to play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way en route to getting swept out of the ALCS?
Well, after threatening to completely run away with home-field advantage through the World Series with a 61-32 start, these Phillies sputtered to a 34-35 finish and haven't looked anywhere near as formidable.
Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have been fine, but for those first 93 games, the former was an MVP threat and the latter looked like a safe bet to win a batting title.
Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh have also taken sizable steps backward since serving as key cogs of that offensive machine for the first few months.
And after hitting the midpoint of the season as one of the top candidates to win the NL Cy Young, Ranger Suárez's turns through the rotation have been such a mess over the past three months that the Phillies may well just go with a bullpen game if there's a Game 4 of the NLDS.
Potential X-Factor
When you've got Nick Castellanos in right field, outfield defense is a potential X-Factor.
At least Casty's bat has recovered from what was a brutal first 50 games at the plate, but his range in the field is a constant problem waiting to happen.
In the other two spots, the Phillies traded for Austin Hays, but two separate multi-week stints on the IL kept him from becoming a legitimate solution in left field. He's available now and might start in left with Marsh primarily manning center, but Johan Rojas, Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens could all factor into the mix, as well.
AL No. 1 Seed: New York Yankees
7 of 8
Regular Season Record: 94-68
Division Series Matchup: Kansas City Royals
Odds to Win World Series: +390
Reason to Buy
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are doggone good, but they got some help down the stretch, too, as the Yankees secured home-field advantage through the ALCS.
Gleyber Torres struggled at the plate for much of the season, but he got into a groove in mid-August and ended up hitting .333 in September, thriving in his return to the leadoff role to ensure regular "men on base" plate appearances for the dynamic duo.
And after an initially rocky return from the IL in mid-June, Gerrit Cole has been on point as of late, boasting a 2.25 ERA since the beginning of August. Carlos Rodón had a 2.20 ERA of his own in September and might be ready to live up to that $162M contract with some solid second fiddle work this October.
Throw in Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s .500 slugging percentage in pinstripes, Giancarlo Stanton's occasional bombs and the rising stars of Austin Wells, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, and there's more than enough talent here to put an end to this World Series drought before it becomes the franchise's longest since they were the New York Highlanders.
Reason to Sell
New York's No. 1 choice for save situations right now appears to be Luke Weaver—a nine-year veteran with a career ERA of 4.85 who had not saved a single game until four weeks ago.
Clay Holmes did record a runner-less save in the regular-season finale on Sunday in a game that meant absolutely nothing, but it's hard to imagine they'll deploy him in any high-leverage situations after he blew 13 saves during the regular season. That's five more than any other pitcher in the majors blew in 2024, and the most blown saves in a single season by any pitcher since they started tracking that stat in 2002.
In fairness, Emmanuel Clase blew 12 saves in 2023, and he sure did turn things back around this year. Maybe Holmes can get back some of that mojo from when he opened the season with 20 consecutive innings devoid of an earned run allowed.
Short of that type of miracle, though, New York's entire bullpen situation is a concern. Might be an awful lot of Weaver and Tommy Kahnle in moderately close games.
Potential X-Factor
Fans begged and pleaded and screamed for the Yankees to bring Jasson Domínguez back up once it was clear he had recovered from his Tommy John surgery. However, the 21-year-old phenom struggled in his limited time in the majors this season, batting .179 with a .617 OPS in 18 games played.
He did steal five bases, though, and it's not like Alex Verdugo was hitting any better down the stretch. Domínguez will probably be New York's primary left fielder. And if he can get back to hitting like he did in last year's even smaller sample size (four HR in eight games played), the American League's top scoring team becomes just that much more terrifying.
NL No. 1 Seed: Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 8
Regular Season Record: 98-64
Division Series Matchup: San Diego Padres
Odds to Win World Series: +350
Reason to Buy
There were large chunks of the season where this offense was riddled with black holes—when Mookie Betts and/or Max Muncy were out due to injuries; when Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor looked like they were up there hacking in blindfolds.
Down the stretch, however, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way by finding yet another gear of excellence, the Dodgers became the offensive juggernaut everyone expected them to be before the season began.
Over their final 17 games, they hit .290 as a team and averaged 7.2 runs per game.
That's even with Betts struggling (.185/.214/.323) and Freddie Freeman just kind of hitting OK. If those two stars wake up even a little bit and avoid a repeat of their mutually disastrous showing in last year's NLDS exit, this team just might mash its way to a pennant.
Reason to Sell
Health in the starting rotation was a season-long dilemma for the Dodgers. Seventeen different pitchers made at least one start for this team, and three of the four team leaders in innings pitched—Tyler Glasnow (IL), Gavin Stone (IL) and James Paxton (DFA'd)—will not be of any help in October.
Having Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty available is a mighty fine one-two punch atop the rotation, but where they turn from there is anyone's guess.
Clayton Kershaw (toe) won't be available at least for the NLDS, so Walker Buehler in Game 3 with a 5.38 ERA for the year?
Or Landon Knack, who has been nice through 69 career innings pitched, but who had some rough appearances in September?
They can't possibly turn back to Bobby Miller after the way he got shelled down the stretch (and, frankly, all season) right?
If Yamamoto and Flaherty both thrive, it shouldn't matter. But if either one gets dismantled like Kershaw did immediately at the beginning of last year's very brief Dodgers postseason, stealing a game not started by one of those two will be a challenge.
Potential X-Factor
Since arriving at the trade deadline, Michael Kopech has given the Dodgers 24 innings with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP, quickly emerging as their primary choice for saves—just one year after he made 27 starts for the White Sox.
They've also gotten some vintage work from Blake Treinen as of late, allowing just one run in 18 appearances since the beginning of August.
If those two continue to flourish at the back of the bullpen, it sure does alleviate some of the concerns about the starting rotation.
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