Week 4 NFL Odds: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule
Week 3 was another wild one, featuring several intense endings and stunning upsets. While it's still tricky to get a read on teams at this point in the early NFL season, we're beginning to see developing trends.
The Dallas Cowboys, for example, have now experienced poor defensive performances in consecutive weeks. That suggests that the dominant defensive display Dallas had in Week 1 is probably closer to a mirage than its letdown of Week 2.
Predicting how games will unfold won't get much easier in Week 4, but information is a powerful tool. With Week 3 in the rear view, fans have a bit more knowledge than they did just a few days ago.
With this in mind, let's dive into a few of our favorite team plays for Week 4, based on factors like recent performances, team health and individual matchups.
*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Cowboys -4.5 at Giants
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The Cowboys have floundered two weeks in a row, while the New York Giants played like a contender in Week 3. New York bullied a banged-up Cleveland Browns offensive line, recorded eight sacks and unleashed rookie receiver Malik Nabers (eight catches, 78 yards, 2 TDs).
It's tempting to back the home dog here because of Dallas' defensive struggles and shaky offensive line. However, the Cowboys are a lot more talented than they've shown over the last two weeks, and at 1-2, they're getting desperate.
"We just need 11 guys playing together, and right now it's just not in unison,' Cowboys edge-rusher Micah Parsons said, per ESPN's Todd Archer.
Parsons could be the key to changing Dallas' fortunes this week. Giants QB Daniel Jones had a rare great game against Cleveland, but he wasn't consistently harassed by Myles Garrett, who is dealing with dual foot injuries. Parsons is healthy and should pressure Jones into the kinds of mistakes we saw over the first two weeks.
The Cowboys should have a better plan for limiting Nabers than Cleveland did, and they should better exploit a Giants secondary that remains lackluster.
Vikings +3 at Packers
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The Green Bay Packers were one of the best NFL stories in 2023, and they remain fascinating in 2024. Thanks to a talented roster and some excellent coaching by Matt LaFleur, the Packers have gone 2-0 over the past two weeks with backup quarterback Malik Willis.
Now, there's a chance that Jordan Love (knee) will return to face the rival Minnesota Vikings at home.
The 3-0 Vikings, though, are looking like a potential powerhouse. They're getting quality play from quarterback Sam Darnold, while coordinator Brian Flores has done masterful work with the defense.
Minnesota fields a top-five offense and a top-five defense in terms of scoring.
The Vikings defense and ground game are key factors in this matchup. Green Bay is unlikely to run away on the scoreboard at any point, and it has struggled against the run (4.7 yards per carry allowed). That will allow Minnesota to stick with the game plan that has worked thus far.
This is also a potential revenge game for Vikings running back Aaron Jones, who was jettisoned by the Packers after they acquired Josh Jacobs. Fans will be reminded of that often on Sunday.
Green Bay may win this one, but it's worth taking the Vikings and the points.
Steelers -1.5 at Colts
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Quarterback Justin Fields has been exactly the sort of high-end game-manager the Pittsburgh Steelers were hoping to add this offseason. Of course, most expected that quarterback to be Russell Wilson.
With Wilson nursing a calf injury, however, Fields has taken off. While he hasn't exactly been a dynamic playmaker on every down, he's largely avoided mistakes and taken advantage of what's in front of him. He's also made a few splash plays each game that few signal-callers in the NFL can make.
Fields' emergence has allowed the Steelers to lean on a defense that might just be the league's best. That defense was too often offset by poor quarterback play in 2023, but the Steelers are no longer wasting great defensive efforts.
This week, Pittsburgh will visit an Indianapolis Colts team that has been borderline awful defensively while getting inconsistent play from second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson.
T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense should make life miserable for Richardson this week, while Fields should generate enough chunk plays against a bad Colts defense to pull away.
Pittsburgh is on the road, but we can expect plenty of Steelers fans to make the trip to Indianapolis. This game is also close to a pick 'em at this point, and that will likely change over the course of the week.
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