Stock Watch on 2024 Top CFB Coaches: Hot Seats, Big Buyouts, and Perfect Starts
Three weeks won't tell the whole story of a college football season. But three weeks can still tell us plenty about the biggest teams and personalities in the sport, as a fresh start paves way for the weekly routine.
Given the stakes and the salaries, coaching a major college football program in the year 2024 comes with a small fortune and a small leash.
While it's too early, at least for most, to know what's in store for the rest of 2024, expectations and concern have started to set in for head coaches expected to win big.
So, how have they done?
To answer this, we're assessing some of the biggest coaches through college football's first few weeks.
If you're a fan of Florida schools not named Miami, it's about to get ugly.
Kalen DeBoer's Impossible Assignment Starts Swimmingly
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You don't simply replace Nick Saban. That is not a reasonable task. You hire someone capable of keeping your program in that upper echelon.
Thus far, with a limited sample size, DeBoer has done just this. An impressive road win at Wisconsin in Week 3 was the most convincing piece of evidence yet, and the improvements from quarterback Jalen Milroe feel like a direct result of this change.
With all that said, it hasn't been perfect. Alabama had a very un-Alabama like stretch against South Florida in Week 2, and the acclimation period will take some time. With that acknowledged, DeBoer has done everything Alabama fans could possibly hope for thus far.
Now, things get interesting. After a bye, Alabama welcomes Georgia into town. This assessment will drastically change, one way or another, after that.
Brian Kelly's Chaotic Collage of Mixed Outcomes and Mounting Pressure
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For a while on Saturday, many spent a good chunk of the afternoon looking up Kelly's buyout. Yes, that includes this writer.
Spoiler alert: it's north of $50 million.
Then, LSU pulled off a somewhat miraculous win over South Carolina in somewhat ugly fashion. The importance of that win cannot be overstated for Kelly, who narrowly avoided a 1-2 start after the Tigers lost to USC in the opener.
You could build a collage out of the anger and angst he displayed in one four-hour stretch.
While the most recent outcome will certainly be celebrated, it's safe to say that concern is rising in Baton Rouge. Sneaking past South Carolina is not something this program or fan base will tolerate. It also could be a sign of things to come.
A loss would have been catastrophic. A win, albeit under unusual terms, is certainly far less so.
That said, all is not well. Keep an eye on this one.
Billy Napier's Rough Ride Has Gotten Rougher
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The schedule was always going to be a problem. We knew this months ago, as we sized up the absolutely brutal path ahead.
The hope for Florida is that it would prevail in a few winnable games on paper—especially early on. Then, when the games got tougher, win a few games that perhaps the Gators shouldn't.
That hasn't happened. Florida is 1-2, and the optics following losses to Miami in Week 1 and Texas A&M at home in Week 3 aren't great. The boos are raining down, and the chants for Lane Kiffin have begun.
There's no sugarcoating this. In terms of coaching, this is a nightmare. Napier can't possibly wear all the blame for this lackluster start, but he will carry much of the burden.
It's early, but that seat is scorching.
Mike Norvell's No Good, Very Bad 2024
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Before we get to the brutal reality, let's give Norvell some props.
Last season, he brought a dormant Florida State program back to life. The Seminoles finished unbeaten in the regular season, suffered a handful of brutal injuries and the rest, as they say, is history.
In the college football world, however, that's ancient history. After another loss, Florida State is 0-3, having lost games to Georgia Tech, Boston College and now Memphis.
Sure, his roster was completely overturned. But this cannot happen at Florida State, and the issues surrounding this program in essentially all facets are hard to wrap your head around.
Norvell was just given an eight-year extension in the offseason. It's safe to say better days are ahead, but there's no immediate hope to be found.
Florida is certainly underwhelming, but you won't find a bigger underperformer in the sport than this one.
Mario Cristobal's Must-Have Perfect Start
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Oh, the play calling and the decision making were dreadful last season. There's no other way to say it.
Cristobal's impact in 2023 was nothing short of an atrocity. In fact, many spent the offseason wondering if "The U" could possibly find its footing under his guidance.
Then, Cam Ward decided to transfer to Miami. In that moment, everything changed.
The QB, coupled with impressive recruiting and development, have Miami looking like a legit contender. The Hurricanes blasted Ball State on Saturday to move to 3-0, and there is a slew of winnable games on tap.
Want to be critical of the soft schedule? That's fair. Given what we've seen of the Gators, it's fair to question what that opening win means.
Still, this is the start Miami needed. More specifically, this is the start Cristobal needed. If we're going to be critical when he botches games, we should celebrate when he wins them.
So far, job well done.
Marcus Freeman's Wild Ride
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Few coaches entered Week 3 with more eyeballs and angst than Freeman, who watched his football team lose another game as a massive favorite in Week 2.
While the impact of the loss to Northern Illinois will be examined in the weeks and months ahead, there were no lingering effects this week. Notre Dame absolutely destroyed Purdue on the road—an environment that has produced its fair share of upsets over the years. In Week 1, Freeman's team outlasted Texas A&M on the road.
In spurts, Freeman's teams have looked superb. In others, they have fallen flat on their face, as was the case this year.
The victory over Purdue was promising, but that loss is going to linger for many. Another one of those, and there will be major issues.
Dan Lanning's Perfectly Average Start
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The most important thing one can say about Lanning's team this year can be summed up in a single sentence.
It has not lost a game.
That about says it all, although context is certainly important. After a lackluster showing against Idaho in the opener and a wild win against Boise State in Week 2, Oregon looked like, well, Oregon against rival Oregon State in Week 3.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel looked more comfortable, the offensive line looked better, and the defense played its best game of the year. Granted, it came against a team the Ducks should dominate.
Much of how you interpret Lanning's first three games boils down to hype. The team had a lot of it, and it's safe to say early returns haven't matched that hype just yet. Still, the Ducks are unbeaten and a home game against Ohio State is less than a month away.
Stay tuned.
Lane Kiffin's Full Potential on Display
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The competition has been underwhelming, but the performances have been anything but.
Ole Miss is 3-0, scoring points and absolutely clobbering anything in its path. Perhaps more impressive than the points scored, however, is the fact that the Rebels have allowed just nine points in three games.
Granted, those games were against Furman, Middle Tennessee and Wake Forest. Better opponents are coming, but results are eye-opening.
We know Kiffin knows offense. To see the work in recruiting and the transfer portal pay off in other areas, however, speaks to his evolution. Again, better teams are coming. A fairer evaluation will happen soon enough.
But in the moment, it's hard not to be impressed with the work Kiffin has put in the offseason and now the first few weeks.
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