Fake NBA Contenders Failing the Eye Test
The ranks of NBA title contenders is almost always more exclusive than we think.
Every offseason, without fail, we pump up teams that could enter the inner circle. Throughout every season, again without fail, we rush to coronate the Association's happiest surprises and young cores outperforming expectations. And then, of course, so many—not everybody, but many—talk themselves into legacy threats remaining genuine contenders, proving that nostalgia is, in fact, one helluva drug.
These are the lenses through which we will view this exercise.
Polled internally, after ingesting truth serum, most of these organizations would admit they're not legitimate championship hopefuls. Externally, though, they will convey a different sentiment. And even if they don't, select media members and fans will portray them as such.
Either way, it's a facade. All of these teams are relevant. Some should even be really good. Without any significant changes, though, they invariably do not belong inside or anywhere near the title discussion.
Golden State Warriors
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Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, depth and burgeoning youngsters should keep the Golden State Warriors relevant through 2024-25. But to what end?
This team needs a second-best player. And that might even oversell the load Steph can ferry entering his age-36 season.
Perhaps Jonathan Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski turns into that guy. What are the chances of that happening next year? The Andrew Wiggins-as-situational-No. 2 ship has sailed. Green remains transcendent on defense but doesn't pack the necessary off-the-dribble shot-making this offense needs from its non-Curry ranks.
To the Warriors' credit, they poked around big splashes over the summer (Paul George, Lauri Markkanen). They have the assets to keep scouring the market, and it's not like they're barren of immediate hope.
Golden State handedly beat opponents in the minutes its two stars logged last season without Chris Paul and Klay Thompson. Many of the primary options to flesh out those (now core) lineups are on the upswing.
Still, title contention is a high bar. The Warriors, as currently constructed, don't meet it.
Los Angeles Clippers
2 of 5
Two-star operations will always be looped into higher-level discourse. Especially when they have actual depth around them.
The Los Angeles Clippers enter next season under this umbrella. Losing Paul George sucks (and was totally avoidable). But Kawhi Leonard and James Harden can still play, and the Clippers have a chance to be feisty defensively and springier on offense after landing Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn and bringing back Nicolas Batum.
Whether this group deserves the benefit of the doubt is a separate matter—one already with an answer: They don't.
Harden is entering his age 35 season, has a ton of miles on his treads and has racked up more new teams since 2021 (four) than playoff series wins (three). Leonard is heading into his age-33 campaign, and while he churned out an All-NBA performance last year, he yet again finished the season on the sidelines.
Counting on this roster feels like a fool's errand. Even when they're healthy, they're still down a massive contributor.
Los Angeles decidedly lost the minutes Harden and Kawhi logged without George last year. The returns aren't any better when you filter out the Russell Westbrook reps.
Are the Clippers good enough to win their two-star stretches? Probably. But staggered lineups could wind up being a disaster, particularly on offense.
Los Angeles Lakers
3 of 5
The Los Angeles Lakers really looked at their roster this summer and decided to do (basically) nothing.
Good stuff.
Never mind that LeBron James is entering his age-40 season. Or that he took a (slight) pay cut to give them flexibility beneath the second apron.
Never mind that he and Anthony Davis both appeared in more than 60 games last season for the first time since their debut (and title) campaign in 2019-20–collective availability Los Angeles cannot possibly bank on moving forward.
Never mind that their past two trips to the playoffs ended with them clinging to how competitive they were in series against the Denver Nuggets…despite winning a total of one game.
Making the Western Conference Finals in 2022 is impressive. It's now the second half of 2024, and the Lakers do not look meaningfully different. That's a problem relative to the competitive hellfire awaiting them in the West.
Sure, Los Angeles' financial situation is tough to navigate. It's not impossible. If they're serious about playing for something special before LeBron leaves or retires, they will rectify their relative inaction by February's trade deadline at the absolute latest.
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New Orleans Pelicans
4 of 5
This will invariably be interpreted as anti-New Orleans Pelicans propaganda. It's not. Anyone who has read, or watched, or listened, to me at any point over the past four or five years knows that, if anything, I am too high on this team.
Take this instead as a plea for the Pelicans to do something, anything, at center.
Worrying about the dynamic between Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Dejounte Murray is fair. They have the talent to figure it out. Murray, specifically, has improved his shooting enough to simplify things, and he should allow for more traditional off-ball usage from Zion.
Meanwhile, this team is built to do some nasty things on defense, from the outside in, with Murray, Jose Alvarado, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy all in the fold. The center position is their biggest concern—and their potential undoing.
Daniel Theis is fine. He is younger than he seems (32) and shouldn't clog driving lanes for New Orleans' initiators. He has also never averaged 25 minutes per game and dipped below 20 in each of the past two seasons (one of which was marred by injury).
After him, the Pelicans have…Yves Missi, Karlo Matković and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Put another way: two unknowns and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Sure.
Zion-at-the-5 arrangements killed last year. But they represented just 14 percent of his total possessions. Extending that share—particularly before the playoffs— feels risky given Zion's injury history and the defensive lift it can require
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this all pans out. More likely, the Pelicans need to make a move, even if it comes midseason. Because, at the very least, it's tough to take this center rotation too seriously once the clock strikes end-of-April.
The Caveat Crew
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The caveat crew is populated by teams that aren't necessarily wannabes or phonies, because they're not being peddled as contenders, but that also find themselves feeling the weight on increased expectations. Their path into title contention this season is complicated, if completely obstructed, without some continued reshuffling or upgrades.
Miami Heat
Miami is venturing into complete unknowability. It has plenty of intrigue at the top of the roster but not a ton of certainty beyond Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler thanks to widespread absences last season and a level of dependence on developmental players like Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jović and rookie Kel'el Ware.
Caleb Martin's departure doesn't help matters. Nor does the lack of reps with Terry Rozier. The Heat played just 63 possessions that featured him, Adebayo, Butler and Jaquez on the floor without Martin.
Jimmy Buckets isn't getting any younger, either. He's entering his age-35 season, and his body always seems to be battling...something. If we pencil him in for his usual 15 to 20-something absences, does this team have enough to remain afloat? That feels like a question entirely reliant upon Rozier and Tyler Herro—an objectively awkward spot in which to be.
Orlando Magic
Sticking this team into championship conversations typifies a rush to coronate. And yet, yours truly would be prepared to say some pretty inflammatory things about the Magic's ceiling if they did more than add Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's shooting to the offense.
This squad still needs another threat to score off the dribble who can also organize the offense. Orlando can hold out hope for continued playmaking development from Paolo Banchero (who, rest assured, is #ThatDude), Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black Franz Wagner may also hit more jumpers this year.
None of these guys, with the exception of Banchero, really profile as a methodical table-setter. And that's a tool the Magic will need in their belt if they're going to compete at the highest level.
Sacramento Kings
Something, something, the Western Conference is hard, blah, blah, blah.
Look, the Kings offense should resume setting worlds on fire with the addition of DeMar DeRozan to go along with a healthier Kevin Huerter and Malik Bonk. They can also get to some interesting defensive combinations thanks to Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis.
But something about this squad seems off. It's probably their mixture of talent. Sacramento is light on comprehensive players who check a bunch of boxes. Murray and De'Aaron Fox are their most complete guys. Everyone else on the roster forces the Kings to make one or more serious concessions.
No team has gobs and gobs of balanced talent—well, no team outside of Boston and Oklahoma City. Even by that standard, Sacramento feels like it's working from a deficit of individual well-roundedness. I could be wrong. I'm wrong all the time. But for now, the Kings remain one of the hardest good teams to project.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.
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