10 MLB Storylines That Will Define the Rest of 2024 Regular Season
With roughly 40 regular-season games left to play for MLB teams, it's a good time to focus on the top storylines that will define the rest of the year.
There is an epic race atop the AL East between a pair of juggernauts in the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees.
The Yankees have a player who could well hit 60 home runs twice in three seasons.
The Houston Astros don't always win, but they refuse to die. This year is no exception as questions about their window closing become pertinent.
Mookie Betts is back and that may change everything for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Those and plenty more feature here among the 10 storylines that will shape the remainder of the MLB season.
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Can the Chicago White Sox Make History?
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The White Sox are even worse than we thought, which says a lot considering they were always expected to be epically bad. If you're not a White Sox fan, their losing has become loveable as they chase history at this point.
Their .242 winning percentage would translate to a 39-123 record over the 162-game schedule, which means this team—with 29 wins—might not win 40 games.
No team has failed to win 40 games in a season since the 1935 Boston Braves. A .242 winning percentage would mark the worst since the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics.
PECOTA standings graciously project the White Sox at 45.5 wins.
It is important to remember that an already historically bad White Sox team became even worse after the trade deadline, which makes even the most optimistic projections a bit fuzzy.
As ESPN's Bradford Doolittle pointed out, "simulations are based on a season-to-date performance and a going-forward evaluation of their depth chart for the rest of the season."
What do you make of a team that was already worse than you thought and continued to downgrade? It feels unprecedented for our lifetime.
Elly De La Cruz's Quest for 80-Plus Stolen Bases
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No one has stolen 80 bases or more since Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman in 1988, but Elly De La Cruz—on pace for 81—could be the first in a generation to do it.
He's at 59 stolen bases going into Tuesday's action. It dwarfs the next-highest total from Shohei Ohtani and Brice Turang with 33 apiece.
De La Cruz relishes the opportunity to run the bases. He already has a unique connection to the "80" figure.
He's the first player in the Modern Era to have 80 steals, 80 extra-base hits and 80 walks through his first 200 MLB games, accomplishing the feat with two games to spare.
This might not define the season's outcome, considering the Reds are four games out of the final NL wild-card spot and unlikely to threaten in the postseason, but the rarity of seeing an 80-plus stolen base season would be phenomenal.
Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees Race to Win AL East
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Only a half-game separates the top contenders for the AL East division.
Both the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees have already made it to 70 wins, along with the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The question now is which of the two AL East powers will stand above the rest when it's all said and done.
A couple of distinctions worth making: The Yankees have MLB's best record against teams above .500 (48-33), compared to the Orioles' more-than-respectable 41-28. The Yankees also have baseball's highest run differential (+107), compared to the Orioles' still elite +93.
With all of that said, both team's expected win-loss record is either identical to or one game within their actual record. In a nutshell, both clubs are exactly where they are supposed to be, racing to the division finish line.
New York's remaining schedule is slightly less difficult based on opponents' winning percentage.
It's close enough that their meeting at Yankee Stadium in the next-to-last series of the season could be the deciding factor in the overall postseason landscape for the AL East crown and the No. 1 seed.
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Aaron Judge Chases Another 60-Home Run Season
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Aaron Judge is just 18 home runs shy of another 60-homer season. He's currently on pace for 57, but we've seen him do this before, and he's hitting the ball well enough to repeat it.
Two seasons ago, when the 32-year-old hit a Yankees franchise-record 62 home runs, he did so with a top-five batting average. This year, he's again competing for a batting title with a .332 average, behind only Bobby Witt Jr. at .347. Judge also leads the majors with 107 RBI, 10 more than José Ramírez.
He's chasing another 60-home run season and the Triple Crown as well. Miguel Cabrera, in 2012, was the last player to accomplish this remarkable feat.
On top of that, Judge holds the top OPS in baseball, leading MLB in both on-base percentage and slugging.
The six-time All-Star is clearly capable of going on a heater. If he pulls this off, he would be just the third player since 1927 to hit 60 home runs more than once, joining Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Only five players, including Judge, have ever hit 60 home runs.
This would be rarefied air for Judge and a worthwhile sequel to his 2022 MVP season.
The Astros' Last Dance?
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There was a time early this season when the Astros looked cooked.
They fought until mid-July to become a .500 baseball team. Pitchers were injured with startlingly regularity, as two starters underwent Tommy John surgery just a day apart.
Their lineup survived stars like Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez, who were not special by their own standards. Kyle Tucker fouled a ball off his shin in early June and has been out ever since. He'd easily been their best player up until that point.
Still, the Astros were able to chase down the Seattle Mariners, who lost their 10-game divisional lead in just 24 games. It helps that Houston, now with a 1.5-game cushion, is playing in a struggling division. It's poised to win its fourth straight AL West title and its seventh in the last eight seasons.
The record might not show it, but the Astros are as good as the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians. It's important they make good on what looks like their final year with Justin Verlander and Bregman.
Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies Race to NL Top Seed
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No disrespect to the Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, all of whom look like legitimate NL contenders, but it's a two-team race between the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL's top seed.
Like the Yankees, the Dodgers' expected win-loss record is identical to the actual record and the Phillies are just a game behind that. So, again, these teams are exactly where they are supposed to be.
It makes sense for the highest-spending NL teams outside of the New York Mets to be in this kind of battle. The Dodgers are slugging through bad injury luck and are poised to give us our first look at postseason Shohei Ohtani.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia holds the NL's best ERA and WHIP despite a 7-16 record since the All-Star break.
Because of their division, the Phillies' remaining schedule is slightly less difficult—13 more games against the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins.
How the Dodgers handle a more competitive division—with seven combined games against the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres—will define the rest of the season.
Mookie Betts' Return
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Mookie Betts returned to the Dodgers' lineup Monday after almost two months on the injured list with a fractured left hand.
It did not take the former MVP and eight-time All-Star long to remind the Dodgers of what they had been missing. He finished Monday's game against the Milwaukee Brewers with a two-run homer off Freddy Peralta, then an RBI single and a stolen base later in the game. Then he followed that up with two more hits on Tuesday.
Betts did this without a rehab assignment and batted in a different spot in the order. He also moved from the infield to right field for the first time this season.
Reinserting the 31-year-old but using him differently and maintaining his production changes the complexion of this L.A. team by giving it length.
The Dodgers have been getting by without Betts, but the Diamondbacks were the most impressive team during that time. The Padres were right behind them. Both sit 3.5 games back in the NL West in what has turned into an actual race in the division for the first time since 2021.
The Dodgers dropped to 12th in fWAR from June 16 to Aug. 11. Betts was top-three in fWAR last season and top-five this season until his injury. This team is a lot harder to beat now and should start building back up that division lead.
Diamondbacks-Padres Battle for Top NL Wild-Card Spot
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Since June, the Arizona Diamondbacks have led baseball in every slash line category and fWAR. They were noticeably average at the start of the season, but they have shown why they won the NL pennant just a season ago.
Arizona should no longer be a surprise. Neither should the San Diego Padres, who are right there with the D-backs in terms of production. The Padres rank in the top 10 of every relevant offensive category since June and have the second-best batting average in the NL behind Arizona.
This is the lighter version of the competition between the Yankees and Orioles or the Phillies and Dodgers, but it is compelling nonetheless.
Both Arizona and San Diego have enough talent to get to the World Series, even if the clear-cut favorites are in Los Angeles and Philadelphia.
Based on the current standings, the Diamondbacks and Padres appear set to face each other as the fourth and fifth seeds. Their actual and expected win-loss records are even.
Which team edges the other for potential home-field advantage? Based on the remaining strength of schedule, Arizona has a slightly more difficult road ahead.
Buckle up for the final series of the season when the Padres visit the Diamondbacks.
NL Cy Young Race: Rookie or the Vet?
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These are two of the best stories of the season.
On one side you have Paul Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates' rookie ace who jumped from No. 1 overall pick to big leaguer in just 10 months. He's the fastest No. 1 pick to do that since 1978 and all he's done is validate the move since he's been in the big leagues.
The 22-year-old is the youngest rotation arm in MLB, but it's not stopping him from having the best ERA since his May 11 arrival. He is also second in xFIP in that time, behind only veteran Chris Sale.
Speaking of Sale, there's your front-runner to win his first Cy Young. To think it was a bit risky trading for the eight-time All-Star, given his age and injury history.
The 35-year-old has been better than anyone could have expected. He's posting his best ERA, FIP and WHIP since 2018, when he won a World Series with the Boston Red Sox.
The Atlanta star leads pitchers in significant categories such as fWAR, xERA, FIP and xFIP. His 2.61 ERA currently leads the NL.
But if Sale falters at the end and Skenes maintains this run, it could get interesting. It makes you wonder what might have happened if the rookie had played the entire season in the big leagues.
Can Atlanta Make a Run?
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While Chris Sale's Cy Young bid has been a bright spot for Atlanta, this team is still one of the season's disappointments.
Its stars struggled early and then Ronald Acuña Jr. was faced with his second season-ending knee injury in four years. Considering this, Atlanta is in a decent position as a wild-card contender, currently holding the third spot by two games over the New York Mets.
Catching the Phillies from six games down is unlikely, even if they have been sputtering as of late.
Atlanta has enough to make this more than a two-team race for the top wild-card spot. Marcell Ozuna has been one of the best players in all of MLB this year, and it seems only a matter of time until Matt Olson and Austin Riley experience positive regression.
Jumping the sixth seed to the fourth may not seem significant, but it is the difference between playing a division winner on the road and hosting another wild-card team.
The Diamondbacks and Padres are playing better baseball, but Atlanta at least has the advantage over Arizona in terms of remaining strength of schedule.
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