Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros and MLB's Top 10 Starting Rotations Right Now
On average, Major League Baseball teams spent a little under $58 million just on their starting rotations this season, with the Dodgers, Rangers and Mets driving that number up with totals more than double the mean.
Which ones are actually getting their money's worth, though?
For each of the top 10 starting rotations, we'll be listing year-to-date marks in wins and losses, quality starts, ERA, K/9 and FanGraphs WAR.
However, the ranking isn't particularly rooted in any of those statistics, which in most cases don't reflect how trades and injuries have changed teams over the course of the season.
Rather, the ranking is more a question of which starting rotation you would least want to face in a best-of-seven postseason series starting tomorrow.
That doesn't mean we're only considering the 12 teams that would make the playoffs if the regular season ended today. In fact, four of our top seven rotations wouldn't be in that bracket right now.
They just might pitch their way in down the stretch, though.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are current through the start of play Monday, 12 August.
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Honorable Mentions
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Arizona Diamondbacks
We are just now getting to see a full-strength Diamondbacks rotation for the first time.
Eduardo Rodriguez made his 2024 debut on Wednesday, with Merrill Kelly making his first appearance in nearly four months on Sunday. Once that duo gets up to speed alongside Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt, they could easily rank in the top five.
If Jordan Montgomery also figures things out down the stretch, the Snakes just might emerge as World Series favorites, given how potent their offense has been all season. But we're taking a wait-and-see approach with the returning veterans and keeping Arizona out of the top 10.
Atlanta Braves
Right now, we don't know if Reynaldo López will pitch again this season. And Charlie Morton has been the starting pitching version of Whack-A-Mole dating back to Memorial Day with five quality starts and six others where he allowed at least four earned runs.
That kept Atlanta just outside the top 10, even though Chris Sale might win NL Cy Young and Spencer Schwellenbach has been dealing since the beginning of July.
New York Mets
Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana have really stepped up their game over the past two months. Reintroducing David Peterson to the mix in late May was key. And so far, the move to acquire Paul Blackburn from Oakland has gotten a review of two thumbs up.
It's certainly not the rotation they envisioned when they signed all of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Kodai Senga, but it has come together nicely all the same.
New York Yankees
In May, this rotation was preposterously dominant. Since June 1, though, it has a collective ERA of 5.32. However, it might be turning that corner again.
Carlos Rodón is at a 2.22 ERA over his last four starts, Luis Gil is at 1.93 in his last five, and Gerrit Cole is finally starting to look like Gerrit Cole again after missing most of the first half.
Texas Rangers
In their current state, no, the Rangers are not even close to top 10. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Jon Gray are all on the IL, and Nathan Eovaldi may well be joining them after an early exit (side tightness) from his start on Saturday.
But between Tyler Mahle finally making his Rangers debut this past week and the star power Texas would have if healthy, we can at least throw them an honorable mention.
10. San Diego Padres
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 37-40, 47 QS, 3.99 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 9.5 fWAR
Current Rotation: Dylan Cease, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Matt Waldron, Martín Pérez
Others to Note: Yu Darvish (on the restricted list while attending to a family matter, might not return this season)
Dylan Cease might finish top five in the NL Cy Young vote, fueled in part by his no-hitter against the Washington Nationals in late July. Even after a bit of a rough outing against the Marlins on Sunday, he's leading the majors with 181 strikeouts and has a solid 3.41 ERA.
Michael King has been mighty fine, as well, sitting just outside the top 10 in strikeouts with 151 of them and a slightly better ERA of 3.34.
Matt Waldron's knuckleballs have been both exhilarating to watch and highly effective, as he has a 4.00 ERA of his own.
The question marks here are Joe Musgrove and Martín Pérez.
The latter has been spectacular in two starts since coming over from the Pirates, allowing three runs in 13 innings pitched. However, with a 5.20 ERA in his 16 starts with Pittsburgh and a career mark of 4.44 prior to this season, we'll see how well he hangs onto that No. 5 spot in the rotation.
The former is the catalyst that could push the Padres comfortably into the top five on this list and possibly into first place in the NL West, if he looks more like his old self the rest of the way.
In 79 appearances from 2021-23, Musgrove had a 3.05 ERA. But in 10 starts this season prior to spending more than two months on the IL (elbow), he had a career-worst ERA of 5.66.
Some vintage Musgrove down the stretch—coupled with Fernando Tatis Jr. (leg) presumably returning to the lineup at some point—would make this team one of the top threats to win the World Series.
9. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 39-30, 41 QS, 3.92 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 8.9 fWAR
Current Rotation: Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Jack Flaherty, Gavin Stone, Walker Buehler
Others to Note: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (out since mid-June with triceps tightness, but might make it back before the end of the regular season), Landon Knack (3.07 ERA in 44 IP as a fill-in when guys have been unavailable), River Ryan (1.33 ERA in 20.1 IP in four starts, but out for the year after an elbow injury Saturday)
How you feel about L.A.'s rotation all depends on when you look at it.
In their final six games of the first half, the Dodgers consecutively rolled out Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Anthony Banda, James Paxton, Justin Wrobleski and Brent Honeywell Jr. as starters. Not even a month later, three of those six are no longer on the active roster, while two of the others (Banda and Honeywell) were openers making their only starts of the season.
At that point in time, you probably could have ranked the Dodgers rotation around 27th-best in the majors.
But now, Tyler Glasnow is back, boasting one of the best strikeout rates in the majors. They added Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline, and he has looked great in winning each of his two starts. Clayton Kershaw is also back, making his season debut on July 25 and pitching reasonably well in two of his first three starts.
With Walker Buehler about to re-enter the fray, too, the Dodgers might be on the verge of having the most formidable rotation out there.
Let's not jump the gun, though.
Kershaw has been OK, but he has not yet been anything close to the dominant force he used to be. Buehler hadn't been pitching particularly well, either, when he landed on the IL with hip inflammation eight weeks ago, and we'll see how he fares in his return.
Until one of those two at least starts to look they did from 2018-22 when they were arguably the best one-two punch in baseball, ninth-best rotation is the best we can do here. But it still might be very, very good by October.
8. Baltimore Orioles
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 47-33, 50 QS, 3.77 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 10.5 fWAR
Current Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Zach Eflin, Albert Suárez, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers
Others to Note: Grayson Rodriguez (hit the IL last week with a lat/teres major strain, with a possible return before the end of the regular season)
Corbin Burnes has been awesome all season long, all but certain to finish either first or second in the AL Cy Young vote before making a whole lot of moolah in free agency.
Losing Grayson Rodriguez for the foreseeable future, however, was both a devastating blow and, sadly, par for the course for the Orioles this season.
At least there's hope he'll be back, unlike the previous losses of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells to season-ending UCL surgeries.
And at least they added a few arms at the trade deadline to help soften that blow.
Neither Zach Eflin nor Trevor Rogers felt like grand-slam acquisitions after the talk of Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal as possible targets, but Eflin (3 GS, 3 W, 2.33 ERA) has been outstanding so far. We'll see if Rogers (2 GS, 6.75 ERA) can eventually follow suit.
Meanwhile, Albert Suárez has continued to impress, going 11.2 scoreless innings over his last two starts to get his ERA down to 3.39 for the year. He and Cade Povich were going to be the ones squeezed out of the rotation following the two deadline additions, but he has stepped right back in for Rodriguez and pitched great.
Can Dean Kremer figure things out down the stretch, though? He made 14 quality starts for the O's last season, but he has just one in the past three months, taking the loss in seven of his last nine outings.
It would be a game-changer in the AL East race if he can start producing at a middle-of-the-rotation type of level once more.
7. Chicago Cubs
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 30-34, 47 QS, 3.81 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 9.5 fWAR
Current Rotation: Shōta Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Kyle Hendricks
Others to Note: N/A
What's impressive about the Cubs starting rotation having a 3.81 ERA for the year is that it includes those seven starts within the first seven weeks of the season in which Kyle Hendricks was a complete disaster with a 10.57 ERA.
The 34-year-old has been much better since the beginning of June (4.25 ERA), becoming an actually serviceable fifth member of a rotation in which everyone else has a 3.50 ERA or better.
It was right around the same time that Justin Steele began to shine, too.
The 2023 All-Star missed a little over a month after suffering a hamstring strain on Opening Day, and then it took him a few starts to get into a groove. Dating back to Memorial Day, though, he has been maybe the best pitcher in all of baseball, making 14 starts with a 2.44 ERA.
Shōta Imanaga had both a seven-run mishap and 10-run implosion to fall somewhat out of the running for an ERA title. Take those two duds out of the equation, though, and he has a 1.94 ERA in 19 starts. Paul Skenes is going to win NL Rookie of the Year, but it's criminal how quickly people just kind of forgot about Imanaga and what was an 0.84 ERA through the first nine starts of his MLB career.
Jameson Taillon has made 11 quality starts (out of 20 total starts), and Javier Assad's 3.24 ERA is rock solid, even if he rarely makes it through six innings.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 31-34, 51 QS, 3.69 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 8.2 fWAR
Current Rotation: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Marco Gonzales, Luis Ortiz
Others to Note: Jared Jones (3.56 ERA in 16 starts, nearing a return from a lat strain)
You know full well who the main attraction is here.
It wasn't until Paul Skenes' 15th start that he allowed more than three runs in a game. And even in that "less dominant" start against the Dodgers, the rookie phenom was still impressive, striking out eight while allowing four earned runs in six innings of work.
He's going to win NL Rookie of the Year, and he just might win the Cy Young, too.
Is the supporting cast good enough for Skenes and Co. to crack the top five?
Mitch Keller has certainly been solid, backing up Pittsburgh's decision to ink him to a five-year, $77 million extension in February. He, too, was recently roughed up by the Dodgers, but he had a 2.34 ERA in his 15 starts prior to that one.
However, that pair of aces is weighed down a bit by the set of No. 5 starters that completes Pittsburgh's full house.
All of Bailey Falter, Marco Gonzales and Luis Ortiz have been...fine. Both Falter and Gonzales had sub-4.00 ERAs until this past week, and it's hard to argue with Ortiz's midseason transition from middle relief into the starting rotation, pitching at least into the sixth inning of each of his seven starts.
But put any of them up against any of the third-best starters in our top five or any of the fourth-best starters in our top three and it's hardly a fair fight.
If Jared Jones comes back soon and resumes pitching like he did early in the season, though, it becomes a different story.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 51-29, 61 QS, 3.47 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 13.4 fWAR
Current Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Taijuan Walker, Tyler Phillips
Others to Note: Ranger Suárez (2.87 ERA in 20 starts, nearing a return from a back injury)
Yes, the Phillies got the raw end of the "right now" deal in this ranking, as their starting rotation's full-year fWAR ranks second-best in the majors.
Ranger Suárez—who should be back in a week or two—was one of the top candidates for NL Cy Young less than two months ago. Not having him in the mix here might seem a bit unfair.
Then again, including Tyler Phillips—who tossed a complete game shutout against the Guardians and has won four of his five "break in case of emergency" starts with Taijuan Walker, Spencer Turnbull and Suárez all out of the equation recently—wasn't exactly a penalty for the Phillies, whose entire rotation has been a bit of a mess as of late.
Well, OK, not the entire rotation. Zack Wheeler has been good for one rough start per month this season, but he has a 2.66 ERA dating back to mid-June and is rivaling Chris Sale for NL Cy Young favorite.
But if your favorite team had to face Philadelphia's rotation in a best-of-seven series right now, are you even a bit worried about your team's ability to score?
Unless you're a Braves or Mariners fan, in which case the answer this year is permanently "You're damn right we're worried about our ability to score even one run in any game," the answer should probably be a no.
Aaron Nola has a 4.71 ERA in roughly the same window that Wheeler has dominated, Cristopher Sánchez has a 6.63 ERA since the beginning of July, and Taijuan Walker has a 5.60 ERA for the year.
Even Suárez was fading fast with a 7.71 ERA over his final four starts before landing on the IL.
When this team was flirting with reaching 30 games above .500 a month ago, this rotation was undeniably top three and maybe even a stone-cold lock for No. 1.
Since July 12, though, the Phillies have given up at least 10 runs in a game as many times (five) as they have limited an opponent to two or fewer runs.
Quite the 180 turn from the first 93 games, when there were 35 cases of two runs or fewer and only two of 10 runs or more.
4. San Francisco Giants
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 31-37, 38 QS, 4.34 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 5.7 fWAR
Current Rotation: Blake Snell, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong
Others to Note: N/A
San Francisco's full-season stats aren't great, but that's largely a product of delayed arrivals.
Blake Snell was an oft-injured disaster through the Giants' first 90 games, making just six appearances with a 9.51 ERA. But since returning a week before the All-Star Break, he has been "two-time Cy Young winner" dominant, making six starts with a 1.15 ERA, 0.59 WHIP and 11.3 K/9, including that no-hitter against the Reds.
Basically, Snell went from the reason this team was underachieving to the reason it might be able to salvage a spot in the postseason after all.
Meanwhile, Robbie Ray didn't make his 2024 debut until July 24, going five no-hit innings with eight strikeouts against the Dodgers in that long-awaited start. He has 28 Ks in 20.1 IP and was stretched out to 105 pitches his last time out.
And then there's Logan Webb, just putting in great work for the fourth consecutive year. Per FanGraphs, he has been the fifth-most valuable pitcher since the start of 2021.
Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong can't quite hold a candle to that trio of aces, but they've both had solid age-22 seasons. The latter made his MLB debut in late June (another delayed arrival) and had a sub-3.00 ERA after six starts. The young duo combined to make four starts against the Rockies in the final two weeks of July, putting up a combined line of 22.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 37 K.
If the Giants do make the playoffs with this rotation intact, they could be a terrifying matchup.
3. Houston Astros
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 42-35, 50 QS, 4.12 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 7.4 fWAR
Current Rotation: Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi, Spencer Arrighetti
Others to Note: Justin Verlander (made a rehab start on Saturday and might be back sometime next week), Luis Garcia (could return from last season's Tommy John surgery in late August or September)
The Astros lost both Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery in early June. They also announced last week that Lance McCullers Jr. won't be pitching in 2024 after also missing all of 2023. And both Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia are presently working their way back from the IL.
That quintet started 117 games for the Astros during the 2022 regular season and was responsible for nearly half of the innings pitched during that postseason run to a World Series title, and yet we're still talking about a top-three rotation without them.
Must be nice.
Framber Valdez is the lone member of the current rotation who also played a major role two years ago. He fell one out shy of the second no-hitter of his career earlier this month, but he's still having one heck of a season.
Ronel Blanco has been MLB's surprise sensation in 2024. He might be starting to run out of gas with four consecutive non-quality starts, but he still has a 3.02 ERA for the year and is quite unexpectedly leading the team in innings pitched.
There were complaints that the Astros gave up too much at the trade deadline to get Yusei Kikuchi, but at least he has delivered in his first two starts, striking out 19 in 11 innings of a pair of Houston victories.
And both Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti have rebounded nicely from rough starts to the year.
Brown had a 9.78 ERA at the end of April, but he has pitched at least into the sixth inning of 15 consecutive starts with a cumulative ERA of 2.40 since late May. Meanwhile, Arrighetti has been a wrecking ball since late June with 64 strikeouts over his last 47 innings pitched (12.3 K/9).
Kind of wild to think that—if Houston goes with a five-man rotation after both Verlander and Garcia come back—those two recently dominant youngsters would figure to be the ones getting bumped into a middle-relief role.
2. Kansas City Royals
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 46-35, 59 QS, 3.53 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 12. fWAR
Current Rotation: Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen
Others to Note: N/A
Kansas City's bullpen leaves an awful lot to be desired, and that lineup gets suspect in a hurry after Bobby Witt Jr.
But after replacing Alec Marsh with Michael Lorenzen at the trade deadline, this rotation just might be good enough to not only carry the Royals to October, but possibly also as the AL Central champions.
(At any rate, neither Cleveland nor Minnesota was even remotely close to cracking this top 10.)
The star of the show has been Seth Lugo, who has more quality starts this season (17) than he had total games started from 2018-22 combined (12).
Lugo's conversion back to a starting pitcher last season in San Diego went surprisingly well, but the 34-year-old has been considerably better this year with a 2.72 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and an MLB-best 13 wins. Every time it looks like he's regressing to the mean with a bad start, he bounces right back with a gem his next time out.
Both Cole Ragans (not surprisingly, after a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts last season) and Brady Singer (quite surprisingly, after a 5.52 ERA in 29 starts last season) have been hot on Lugo's tail in this three aces rotation. The trio collectively has a 2.99 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and an 8.8 K/9—otherwise read as three copies of what Tanner Bibee gave Cleveland last season (2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.9 K/9) in placing second for AL Rookie of the Year.
Michael Wacha hasn't been quite that good, but a 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP from your No. 4 starter feels like a cheat code, considering the MLB averages among starting pitchers are 4.18 and 1.27, respectively.
And, who knows, Lorenzen might even supplant Wacha as the fourth-best starter, in which case his numbers are even more absurd for a No. 5 starter.
1. Seattle Mariners
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Year-to-Date SP Stats: 42-39, 73 QS, 3.24 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 13.6 fWAR
Current Rotation: Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo
Others to Note: N/A
To be clear, Seattle landing at No. 1 was not a difficult decision in the slightest.
The Mariners already had one of the best starting rotations in the majors last season, and they have been even better across the board this year.
They had 74 quality starts in 2023.
They already have 73 this year.
Both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert deserve to finish top five in the AL Cy Young vote, and neither Luis Castillo nor Bryce Miller is far removed from being in that conversation. Each member of that quartet has an ERA below 3.50, a K/9 north of 8.0 and at least 130 innings pitched. They've all been workhorses.
The most impressive numbers belong to Bryan Woo, though, who has a 2.27 ERA 13 starts into a season that has been limited by elbow and hamstring injuries.
Woo rarely throws more than 80 pitches, but he has allowed either one or zero runs in eight of his 13 outings, six of which were quality starts.
As if what Seattle's main four have been doing on a regular basis isn't ridiculous enough, it is categorically unfair that they have gotten that type of production out of their No. 5 starter, going 10-3 when he takes the mound.
Ready for the best stat?
Seattle starting pitchers have logged a combined total of 694.2 IP, good for 19.2 more IP than the next-closest team. Yet, they have allowed 268 total runs, good for the fewest in the majors.
What a preposterous combination, but a testament to how good they have been.
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